(09-24-2014, 07:40 AM)gocard14 link Wrote:Don't underestimate UCLA-ASU, it is one of a few big games that will probably decide the Pac-12 South (and thus our championship game opponent). I wouldn't sleep on ASU either, even with Taylor Kelly out. UCLA's offensive line has played poorly enough that any team with a good defense could cause enough disruption to eke out a win.
So, what do we know about these two teams so far? Like most everyone, not much.
ASU has two big wins over nothing opponents, and a comfortable win over a not-so-good opponent.
They have played Weber State, New Mexico and Colorado - Sagarin #196, 143, and 95.
ASU's offense put up big numbers against the first two, only okay vs Colorado.
ASU's defense hasn't looked like much - allowing 300+ yds to Weber (evenly split pass and run), solidly stopping UNM (207 yds), but letting the Buffs go off for 545 yds, 28 first downs, holding them to only two punts - both in the first quarter. Without the 3-0 turnover advantage one wonders if they could have won.
Now they will start a QB who has attempted 24 passes in a three year career - and has a qb rating of 111 [for reference the worst official QB rating in the conference is Sui Liufau of Colorado at 132]. It certainly may be that his numbers are simply too small to have any meaning, but it looks dangerous.
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UCLA has famously struggled so far this season, but perhaps their performances are a bit better than usually acknowledged.
UCLA has beaten UVa (Sagarin #62), Memphis (#69), and Texas (#29).
Nonetheless, I think the UVa game was probably their best win, particularly as it was a road trip across the country with a 9:00 am pacific start time.
UCLA defense has been okay - generally better against the run but generally played better passing teams.
UCLA offense was sputtering a bit before Hundley got injured, and didn't necessarily do worse with Neuheisel, who had a PER of 148 - pretty good for the circumstances.
I am sort of surprised there is a line on the game given the uncertainty at the QB position. UCLA as a road favorite by 3 points seems reaonsable - but I'd probably take them up to 6. UCLA is more battle hardened so far and one way or the other looks to have a big advantage at QB.