[stupac2]

I certainly hope you'll post that here in a year or two or three when the CardBoard is awash in conspiracy theories about why we were left out of the playoffs when we clearly belonged. The board went half-mad this weekend over a plot by ACC officials in a game we won.

Hmm? I'm talking about in an as-yet-imaginary 8-team playoff. There's still plenty of room for people to be upset about being left out of a 4-team playoff, because not every major conference winner gets in. If we lose our conference and get left out of a 4-team playoff then yeah, I'll say "tough shit, we should have won our conference".

[stupac2]

I certainly hope you'll post that here in a year or two or three when the CardBoard is awash in conspiracy theories about why we were left out of the playoffs when we clearly belonged. The board went half-mad this weekend over a plot by ACC officials in a game we won.

Hmm? I'm talking about in an as-yet-imaginary 8-team playoff. There's still plenty of room for people to be upset about being left out of a 4-team playoff, because not every major conference winner gets in. If we lose our conference and get left out of a 4-team playoff then yeah, I'll say "tough shit, we should have won our conference".

[jacketree]

(Horrible TV Series btw, but set in Sacramento of all places.)

It should be 8 teams; all conference champions. No exceptions. No second chances to pay attention to that guy 9 yards deep in the end zone when you try some stupid long field goal figuring 'what is the worst that could happen.' In my ideal world, there would be 8 conferences with 10 members each playing full round-robin schedules to determine their champion.  Since there are more than 80 programs interested in playing for all the marbles, there would need to be some sort of relegation system like the European premier leagues. Marginal teams or conferences would be moving up and down based on longer term performance. The better teams, those teams with realistic shots at titles by the eye, wouldn't have an issue.  And if you aren't in a conference, get in one.  (Most teams save BYU and a miscellaneous handful seem to be headed that way as it is.)

This leaves every team to schedule 3 OOC games every year however they feel like scheduling. Body bag games, interesting cross-sectional match ups, great travel destinations, whatever. No reprisals other than if your conference schedules too many cupcakes, it might flirt with relegation.

Right now, the 8 strongest conferences per Sagarin (could be by any system, but represents my initial seeding) are:

1. SEC
2. Pac12
3. Big10
4. Big12
5. ACC
6. AAC
7. Mountain West
8. Conference USA
*********************Relegation Line
9. MAC
10. Missouri Valley
11. Sun Belt
12. Colonial
13. Southland
14. Ohio Valley
15. Ivy
16. Southern
17. Big Sky
18. Big South
19. Patriot
20. Northeast
21. Mid-Eastern
22. SWAC
23. Pioneer  (you know the USD Fightin' Ex Harbaughs et al)

The arguments would then center over relegation and whether the MAC (e.g. Northern Illinois with a #22 Sagarin Rank) should be in over Conference USA (e.g. Marshall with a #61 Sagarin Rank). No system is perfect.

[jacketree]

(Horrible TV Series btw, but set in Sacramento of all places.)

It should be 8 teams; all conference champions. No exceptions. No second chances to pay attention to that guy 9 yards deep in the end zone when you try some stupid long field goal figuring 'what is the worst that could happen.' In my ideal world, there would be 8 conferences with 10 members each playing full round-robin schedules to determine their champion.  Since there are more than 80 programs interested in playing for all the marbles, there would need to be some sort of relegation system like the European premier leagues. Marginal teams or conferences would be moving up and down based on longer term performance. The better teams, those teams with realistic shots at titles by the eye, wouldn't have an issue.  And if you aren't in a conference, get in one.  (Most teams save BYU and a miscellaneous handful seem to be headed that way as it is.)

This leaves every team to schedule 3 OOC games every year however they feel like scheduling. Body bag games, interesting cross-sectional match ups, great travel destinations, whatever. No reprisals other than if your conference schedules too many cupcakes, it might flirt with relegation.

Right now, the 8 strongest conferences per Sagarin (could be by any system, but represents my initial seeding) are:

1. SEC
2. Pac12
3. Big10
4. Big12
5. ACC
6. AAC
7. Mountain West
8. Conference USA
*********************Relegation Line
9. MAC
10. Missouri Valley
11. Sun Belt
12. Colonial
13. Southland
14. Ohio Valley
15. Ivy
16. Southern
17. Big Sky
18. Big South
19. Patriot
20. Northeast
21. Mid-Eastern
22. SWAC
23. Pioneer  (you know the USD Fightin' Ex Harbaughs et al)

The arguments would then center over relegation and whether the MAC (e.g. Northern Illinois with a #22 Sagarin Rank) should be in over Conference USA (e.g. Marshall with a #61 Sagarin Rank). No system is perfect.

[3card]

I'm also a big fan of relegation and a fixed number of teams per conference to fix the horrible NCAAF scheduling issues.  Never seen anyone else advocate it.

One quick note: Sagarin actually has the PAC12 #1. He's broken out the conferences into divisions, but if you combine the divisions, PAC N/S is ahead of SEC E/W.  I didn't bother to do the math, but it seems to be a bigger gap when you look at Sagarin's pure MOV (Predictor) vs. the Dimin-curve/Predictor hybrid he uses to rank the conferences.  Predictor is much better at sniffing out cupcake-eaters.  What's really amazing is looking at the BCS-mandated ELO vs. Predictor for each conference.  PAC is way ahead. BTW, it's like that every year for the PAC.

On the main topic, I think this year is a perfect case of how poorly the new system will work for us.  We can dream about an 8+ team playoff, but the reality is with 4 teams, it's unlikely the PAC will see a playoff spot more than once every 2 or 3 years (at best).  Just like this year, it's going to be too hard for the committee to pass over teams from the three big schedule abusers (SEC/ACC/B1G 8 conf games + 3 or 4 OOC cupcakes at home) in favor teams from the PAC or Big12 that have one more loss.

[3card]

I'm also a big fan of relegation and a fixed number of teams per conference to fix the horrible NCAAF scheduling issues.  Never seen anyone else advocate it.

One quick note: Sagarin actually has the PAC12 #1. He's broken out the conferences into divisions, but if you combine the divisions, PAC N/S is ahead of SEC E/W.  I didn't bother to do the math, but it seems to be a bigger gap when you look at Sagarin's pure MOV (Predictor) vs. the Dimin-curve/Predictor hybrid he uses to rank the conferences.  Predictor is much better at sniffing out cupcake-eaters.  What's really amazing is looking at the BCS-mandated ELO vs. Predictor for each conference.  PAC is way ahead. BTW, it's like that every year for the PAC.

On the main topic, I think this year is a perfect case of how poorly the new system will work for us.  We can dream about an 8+ team playoff, but the reality is with 4 teams, it's unlikely the PAC will see a playoff spot more than once every 2 or 3 years (at best).  Just like this year, it's going to be too hard for the committee to pass over teams from the three big schedule abusers (SEC/ACC/B1G 8 conf games + 3 or 4 OOC cupcakes at home) in favor teams from the PAC or Big12 that have one more loss.

[stupac2]

Relegation hasn't ever been mentioned because I don't think it works, though I hadn't been thinking about relegating conferences. I think that the most likely thing to happen, from here, is that the FBS divides again along the power conference lines. Several people in positions of power have floated that idea recently, and I think it's really just a matter of time, and who gets left out. It would be unfortunate for the conferences like the AAC and MWC that are on the cusp (I wouldn't be shocked if there are years where the MWC is better than the ACC, for instance), but them's the breaks.

[stupac2]

Relegation hasn't ever been mentioned because I don't think it works, though I hadn't been thinking about relegating conferences. I think that the most likely thing to happen, from here, is that the FBS divides again along the power conference lines. Several people in positions of power have floated that idea recently, and I think it's really just a matter of time, and who gets left out. It would be unfortunate for the conferences like the AAC and MWC that are on the cusp (I wouldn't be shocked if there are years where the MWC is better than the ACC, for instance), but them's the breaks.