[washingtonismoney]

The 3 teams that have played Stanford are:

9-0 when not playing Stanford (winning by an average of 20.7 points per game).
And 0-3 when playing Stanford.

You cannot get better than that.

[washingtonismoney]

The 3 teams that have played Stanford are:

9-0 when not playing Stanford (winning by an average of 20.7 points per game).
And 0-3 when playing Stanford.

You cannot get better than that.

[fullmetal]

I don't think any $EC team can say that...!

[fullmetal]

I don't think any $EC team can say that...!

[FarmBoy]

It is ironic that the year after we were fighting for national credibility for a shot in the BCS CG, our OOC schedule and conference opponents put together strong resumes. Stanford only had one win against a team ranked in the final AP poll last year, IIRC. We may have 4-5 by season's end this year.

Duke and SJSU are both better than their historical reputation. The question is whether voters will get past the fact that it's Duke and SJSU in deciding how valuable our wins are. Of course, the computers don't care about reputation

[FarmBoy]

It is ironic that the year after we were fighting for national credibility for a shot in the BCS CG, our OOC schedule and conference opponents put together strong resumes. Stanford only had one win against a team ranked in the final AP poll last year, IIRC. We may have 4-5 by season's end this year.

Duke and SJSU are both better than their historical reputation. The question is whether voters will get past the fact that it's Duke and SJSU in deciding how valuable our wins are. Of course, the computers don't care about reputation

[washingtonismoney]

His PREDICTOR--which is better--has us ranked 11th. That's probably fair, considering our mediocre margin of victory so far.

However, I don't put much stock into Sagarin's ratings early--he relies on a combination of on-field results and preseason projections until Week 7.

[washingtonismoney]

His PREDICTOR--which is better--has us ranked 11th. That's probably fair, considering our mediocre margin of victory so far.

However, I don't put much stock into Sagarin's ratings early--he relies on a combination of on-field results and preseason projections until Week 7.

[jayasena]

It is ironic that the year after we were fighting for national credibility for a shot in the BCS CG, our OOC schedule and conference opponents put together strong resumes. Stanford only had one win against a team ranked in the final AP poll last year, IIRC. We may have 4-5 by season's end this year.

I don't think our OOC slate (or SoS in general, for that matter) hurt us last year, whatever the opponent's records may have been. Had we beaten Oregon, there's no doubt we would have played in the CG. Despite the loss, we would have finished #3 (i.e. the top team besides the teams that played in the CG) had we won the bowl game. Conversely, I don't think a stronger OOC schedule (short of having played and beaten Alabama or LSU) and better SoS would have changed anything.

[jayasena]

It is ironic that the year after we were fighting for national credibility for a shot in the BCS CG, our OOC schedule and conference opponents put together strong resumes. Stanford only had one win against a team ranked in the final AP poll last year, IIRC. We may have 4-5 by season's end this year.

I don't think our OOC slate (or SoS in general, for that matter) hurt us last year, whatever the opponent's records may have been. Had we beaten Oregon, there's no doubt we would have played in the CG. Despite the loss, we would have finished #3 (i.e. the top team besides the teams that played in the CG) had we won the bowl game. Conversely, I don't think a stronger OOC schedule (short of having played and beaten Alabama or LSU) and better SoS would have changed anything.

[Renaissance Man]

This site, which lists a compilation of 52 computer rankings, has Stanford at #4.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

[Renaissance Man]

This site, which lists a compilation of 52 computer rankings, has Stanford at #4.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

[Farm93]

This site, which lists a compilation of 52 computer rankings, has Stanford at #4.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

SJSU is #46, Duke is #68.  If those two programs can stay close to those numbers things will be OK with the computers. 

However, with only 3 games played, I am not too concerned about this stuff.  Stanford plays Oregon & Notre Dame more than enough to put Stanford in the top 2.  If Stanford wins all 13 games available, Stanford will be in the BCS CG.  No doubt.  If Stanford drops ANY 1 game, Stanford will be looking for other BCS possibilities (Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champ, or very lucky BCS at-large invite).  If Stanford drops 2 or more games then it is Alamo, Holiday or Sun.  At 3-0, I just don't see much need to ponder things just yet.

FWIW - It is possible that late stretch in November will determine a lot.

[Farm93]

This site, which lists a compilation of 52 computer rankings, has Stanford at #4.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

SJSU is #46, Duke is #68.  If those two programs can stay close to those numbers things will be OK with the computers. 

However, with only 3 games played, I am not too concerned about this stuff.  Stanford plays Oregon & Notre Dame more than enough to put Stanford in the top 2.  If Stanford wins all 13 games available, Stanford will be in the BCS CG.  No doubt.  If Stanford drops ANY 1 game, Stanford will be looking for other BCS possibilities (Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champ, or very lucky BCS at-large invite).  If Stanford drops 2 or more games then it is Alamo, Holiday or Sun.  At 3-0, I just don't see much need to ponder things just yet.

FWIW - It is possible that late stretch in November will determine a lot.

[Gauss]

SJSU is #46, Duke is #68.  If those two programs can stay close to those numbers things will be OK with the computers. 

They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock. SJST on the other hand should be able to improve on their 5-7 from last season. With them getting to 7-5, plus a strong NotreDame this year, Stanford will not have to worry too much about Strength of Schedule (apart from beating them, of course!).

That said, the computers are going to still be in love with the Big 12, which is 25-3 this year out-of-conference, while the PAC is 23-9 (with a tougher schedule, but still).
http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2012/r...l#Big%2012

[Gauss]

SJSU is #46, Duke is #68.  If those two programs can stay close to those numbers things will be OK with the computers. 

They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock. SJST on the other hand should be able to improve on their 5-7 from last season. With them getting to 7-5, plus a strong NotreDame this year, Stanford will not have to worry too much about Strength of Schedule (apart from beating them, of course!).

That said, the computers are going to still be in love with the Big 12, which is 25-3 this year out-of-conference, while the PAC is 23-9 (with a tougher schedule, but still).
http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2012/r...l#Big%2012

[Farm93]

Last year, Stanford's computer rankings were only slightly damaging.  If all three OOC opponents play better (likely) and the conference has a better OOC (also likely) then the computer rankings should be solid and slightly positive.

The bigger challenge (IMHO) will be duplicating that 11-1 type record that is required for any of the BCS at-large stuff to become relevant.

[Farm93]

Last year, Stanford's computer rankings were only slightly damaging.  If all three OOC opponents play better (likely) and the conference has a better OOC (also likely) then the computer rankings should be solid and slightly positive.

The bigger challenge (IMHO) will be duplicating that 11-1 type record that is required for any of the BCS at-large stuff to become relevant.

[washingtonismoney]

They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock.

Duke also lost to Richmond last year; given the lack of total embarrassments to FCS teams this year, it's fair to guess they've made some improvement this year.

I would hope for bowl eligibility from them. That seems like a reasonable goal to aspire to.

[washingtonismoney]

They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock.

Duke also lost to Richmond last year; given the lack of total embarrassments to FCS teams this year, it's fair to guess they've made some improvement this year.

I would hope for bowl eligibility from them. That seems like a reasonable goal to aspire to.

[Roberton3]

[quote author=Gauss link=topic=6511.msg48324#msg48324 date=1348524898]
They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock.

Duke also lost to Richmond last year; given the lack of total embarrassments to FCS teams this year, it's fair to guess they've made some improvement this year.

I would hope for bowl eligibility from them. That seems like a reasonable goal to aspire to.
[/quote]

I bet Duke won't be bowl eligible.  They have a shot, but I'd bet it's no more than about a 30% chance.  They'll be an underdog in most or all of their games for the rest of the season.

But I wouldn't be surprised if SJS finishes with 9 wins.  They're a solid team, and most of their remaining schedule is pretty soft.

[Roberton3]

[quote author=Gauss link=topic=6511.msg48324#msg48324 date=1348524898]
They won't. Duke also won 3 games early last season, but as soon as the ACC games started, they dropped like a rock.

Duke also lost to Richmond last year; given the lack of total embarrassments to FCS teams this year, it's fair to guess they've made some improvement this year.

I would hope for bowl eligibility from them. That seems like a reasonable goal to aspire to.
[/quote]

I bet Duke won't be bowl eligible.  They have a shot, but I'd bet it's no more than about a 30% chance.  They'll be an underdog in most or all of their games for the rest of the season.

But I wouldn't be surprised if SJS finishes with 9 wins.  They're a solid team, and most of their remaining schedule is pretty soft.

[washingtonismoney]

I bet Duke won't be bowl eligible.  They have a shot, but I'd bet it's no more than about a 30% chance.  They'll be an underdog in most or all of their games for the rest of the season.

Oh, I don't know about that. I'd guess about a 40-45% chance or so. Football Outsiders estimates their mean remaining wins at 5.1, and that seems about right. The key isn't whether or not they'll be underdogs, but how much they'll be underdogs by. There are few near-certain losses on the schedule--FSU, Clemson--and even those are tempered by each team's propensity to take games off.

Other than that, I see a bunch of toss-up-ish type games. So 6 seems totally reasonable to me.

[washingtonismoney]

I bet Duke won't be bowl eligible.  They have a shot, but I'd bet it's no more than about a 30% chance.  They'll be an underdog in most or all of their games for the rest of the season.

Oh, I don't know about that. I'd guess about a 40-45% chance or so. Football Outsiders estimates their mean remaining wins at 5.1, and that seems about right. The key isn't whether or not they'll be underdogs, but how much they'll be underdogs by. There are few near-certain losses on the schedule--FSU, Clemson--and even those are tempered by each team's propensity to take games off.

Other than that, I see a bunch of toss-up-ish type games. So 6 seems totally reasonable to me.

[Bruce Wang]

That our opponents are 9-0 in other games is why this meta poll ranks us #1.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/...4581.story

An early BCS projection apparently has us 5th.  The article says "Stanford is fifth, but "We're No. 5!" really isn't a blog-worthy rallying cry."

Don't know about you guys.  But to me, especially this season.  We're No. 5 is certainly a blog-worthy rallying cry.

[Bruce Wang]

That our opponents are 9-0 in other games is why this meta poll ranks us #1.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/...4581.story

An early BCS projection apparently has us 5th.  The article says "Stanford is fifth, but "We're No. 5!" really isn't a blog-worthy rallying cry."

Don't know about you guys.  But to me, especially this season.  We're No. 5 is certainly a blog-worthy rallying cry.

[Hank 91]

That's probably the biggest sign that this is now a serious program. In a season that's meant to be a rebuilding year with a new quarterback, there is still talk of Rose Bowls and national championships. This is not your father's Stanford Cardinal. Perhaps not even your older brother's Stanford Cardinal.

[Hank 91]

That's probably the biggest sign that this is now a serious program. In a season that's meant to be a rebuilding year with a new quarterback, there is still talk of Rose Bowls and national championships. This is not your father's Stanford Cardinal. Perhaps not even your older brother's Stanford Cardinal.

[JeffInCorvallis]

I'm lovin' it, but don't get too carried away.  Lots of football left to be played, and it's still easy to envision 2-3 losses.  Not that I'm complaining given where the program was before Harbaugh arrived.

[JeffInCorvallis]

I'm lovin' it, but don't get too carried away.  Lots of football left to be played, and it's still easy to envision 2-3 losses.  Not that I'm complaining given where the program was before Harbaugh arrived.

[Cardinal96]

I'm lovin' it, but don't get too carried away.  Lots of football left to be played, and it's still easy to envision 2-3 losses.  Not that I'm complaining given where the program was before Harbaugh arrived.

The most likely scenario is 9-3 and 10-2, which is a hell of a lot better than where I thought we would be after watching us against San Jose State.  Until I see evidence to the contrary, I am assuming we will have trouble matching up with Oregon and will likely lose.  I think we are an even matchup with Notre Dame but I give them a slight edge in that game as they are playing at home.  When you look at games against UCLA, Arizona, OSU, Cal and Washington it isn't hard to see a loss or two there also.

If I had to guess, I would guess we will play in the Alamo Bowl.

[Cardinal96]

I'm lovin' it, but don't get too carried away.  Lots of football left to be played, and it's still easy to envision 2-3 losses.  Not that I'm complaining given where the program was before Harbaugh arrived.

The most likely scenario is 9-3 and 10-2, which is a hell of a lot better than where I thought we would be after watching us against San Jose State.  Until I see evidence to the contrary, I am assuming we will have trouble matching up with Oregon and will likely lose.  I think we are an even matchup with Notre Dame but I give them a slight edge in that game as they are playing at home.  When you look at games against UCLA, Arizona, OSU, Cal and Washington it isn't hard to see a loss or two there also.

If I had to guess, I would guess we will play in the Alamo Bowl.

[pcgoode]

After watching Notre Dame's game against Michigan last night, I am not as concerned as I was about the Domers. Sure it is an away game, but the Domer offence is pretty feeble, particularly at QB. The Michigan QB threw interceptions in four consecutive series, and they fumbled at least twice, and the Domers still only managed a 13 to 6 win against a team that is clearly not as good as Stanford. Not saying it will be a blowout for us, but I'd put the odds of a win for us at 60 to 70 percent.

[pcgoode]

After watching Notre Dame's game against Michigan last night, I am not as concerned as I was about the Domers. Sure it is an away game, but the Domer offence is pretty feeble, particularly at QB. The Michigan QB threw interceptions in four consecutive series, and they fumbled at least twice, and the Domers still only managed a 13 to 6 win against a team that is clearly not as good as Stanford. Not saying it will be a blowout for us, but I'd put the odds of a win for us at 60 to 70 percent.

[Kathy]

I'm concerned about Oregon State, even if it is a home game for us.

Can't overlook the weenies — bad things could happen if we do.

Assuming I'll get my heart broken again in the Oregon game.

[Kathy]

I'm concerned about Oregon State, even if it is a home game for us.

Can't overlook the weenies — bad things could happen if we do.

Assuming I'll get my heart broken again in the Oregon game.

[oman]

Yeah, maybe it is a product of just watching a bit more of Notre Dame this year, but apart from Washington State, I think I am more worried about almost every other opponent.

I just don't see it against Oregon, unless our secondary just really starts making athletic play after athletic play.

[oman]

Yeah, maybe it is a product of just watching a bit more of Notre Dame this year, but apart from Washington State, I think I am more worried about almost every other opponent.

I just don't see it against Oregon, unless our secondary just really starts making athletic play after athletic play.

[FarmBoy]

As expected, Wilner finds a way to piss on the Stanford SOS parade in his latest Pac12 power rankings:

Wouldn’t read much into Cardinal opponents being 9-0 in all other games. Best win by U.SC, San Jose State and Duke is the T.rojans over 1-3 Syracuse.

What an ass.

In one statement he discounts Stanford while giving an indirect slap in the face of C.al fans--implied in his statement is that 1-3 Syracuse that lost to Northwestern and Minnesota is better than 1-3 C.al.

[FarmBoy]

As expected, Wilner finds a way to piss on the Stanford SOS parade in his latest Pac12 power rankings:

Wouldn’t read much into Cardinal opponents being 9-0 in all other games. Best win by U.SC, San Jose State and Duke is the T.rojans over 1-3 Syracuse.

What an ass.

In one statement he discounts Stanford while giving an indirect slap in the face of C.al fans--implied in his statement is that 1-3 Syracuse that lost to Northwestern and Minnesota is better than 1-3 C.al.