[cardcrimson]

With the year and a half long thread on the war in Ukraine, curious if a similar discussion regarding the events in Israel would be allowed to exist here as well.

[cardcrimson]

With the year and a half long thread on the war in Ukraine, curious if a similar discussion regarding the events in Israel would be allowed to exist here as well.

[rogpodge]

Media criticism. Lots of rallies and protests in major cities in the UK, Canada, and the US.

[rogpodge]

Media criticism. Lots of rallies and protests in major cities in the UK, Canada, and the US.

[TrumpCard]

I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

[TrumpCard]

I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

[TreesAndBirds]

1696825911[/url]']
I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

They have my prayers.

[TreesAndBirds]

1696825911[/url]']
I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

They have my prayers.

[cardcrimson]

1696825911[/url]']
I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

They have my prayers.

And ours.

Reading the accounts of what transpired at the festival and in the small towns is horrifying. The desecration of the German woman is unimaginable. Prayers for all the hostages taken, the children, the elderly, the women, all of them.

[cardcrimson]

1696825911[/url]']
I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

They have my prayers.

And ours.

Reading the accounts of what transpired at the festival and in the small towns is horrifying. The desecration of the German woman is unimaginable. Prayers for all the hostages taken, the children, the elderly, the women, all of them.

[fullmetal]

I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

Ehud Barak, Stanford MS '78 and former prime minister of Israel, was a graduate student and IDF officer when the Yom Kippur War ('73) broke out.

https://thejc.com/news/world/spirit-of-s...W4agoMliKM

[fullmetal]

I have family and friends called to duty in this war. Prayers for their safety appreciated.

Ehud Barak, Stanford MS '78 and former prime minister of Israel, was a graduate student and IDF officer when the Yom Kippur War ('73) broke out.

https://thejc.com/news/world/spirit-of-s...W4agoMliKM

[OutsiderFan]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

[OutsiderFan]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

[Goose]

Unfortunately Israel faces a situation in Gaza that has no "obvious" best choice as to the "way ahead". Israel at one time occupied Gaza and ran a military occupation. That did not work well for Israel, in that the occupation cost them significant money to execute, significant social disruption to provide the necessary troops to execute it, and a not insignificant number of lives. It also created a situation where any kind of a "peace" with the occupants was impossible. Israel doesn't want to go back to this situation, but some argue they have no other alternative.

Recovering the current hostages is a priority, but it is unclear how that can be done. Israel is currently using long range fires to damage the military capability of Hamas. The assumption is that this activity is preliminary to an IDF ground "incursion" to rescue the hostages (at a minimum). It is unclear that this can work. The hostages probably would be killed before they could be reached.

The Israeli population undoubtedly believes that Hamas must be eradicated in Gaza. To do that will however require the IDF to fight an urban battle in a densely built up area with a population of 2.3 million people. Of that 2.3 million, how many will resist the IDF by actually fighting? How big a "regular" force does Hamas have and how many "irregular" fighters will they get if/when the IDF invades? I am not sure Israeli intelligence has a good estimate of the former and I am virtually certain nobody (including Hamas) has one for the latter. Urban warfare, even for a "superior" military force, entails high casualties. Air power is of limited utility in this kind of warfare. The IDF will need draftees to do this task, whatever it ends up being. The Israeli populace will certainly support the IDF, at least at the start and probably much longer than such support would last in the US. The high casualties will obviously be a strain on the IDF and cannot be tolerated indefinitely. Can the IDF accomplish it's "mission" (whatever that turns out to be) before the public begins to question the strategy? Who knows, but getting this "wrong" could be a real problem for Israel.

The other "wild card" is Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah is a much greater military threat to Israel than Hamas could be in their wildest dreams. The IDF could and would defeat Hezbollah if it attacked Israel (either via missiles, troops, or both) without question. The IDF would take casualties, and would need to invade parts of Lebanon and Syria to do it, but they could and would do exactly that. However, their ability to do this while fighting an urban warfare battle in the south becomes questionable. It may require a "Hezbollah first" strategy, but if Hezbollah doesn't attack immediately but rather waits for Israel to become deeply committed in Gaza, what then? Some will say a preemptive strike in the North is required. There is precedent for this approach. No matter how one looks at it, this situation is fraught with peril for all involved (and those who don't want to be involved but may be compelled to act by "events").

I don't have any idea what Israel will decide to do, but I don't envy their choices.

[Goose]

Unfortunately Israel faces a situation in Gaza that has no "obvious" best choice as to the "way ahead". Israel at one time occupied Gaza and ran a military occupation. That did not work well for Israel, in that the occupation cost them significant money to execute, significant social disruption to provide the necessary troops to execute it, and a not insignificant number of lives. It also created a situation where any kind of a "peace" with the occupants was impossible. Israel doesn't want to go back to this situation, but some argue they have no other alternative.

Recovering the current hostages is a priority, but it is unclear how that can be done. Israel is currently using long range fires to damage the military capability of Hamas. The assumption is that this activity is preliminary to an IDF ground "incursion" to rescue the hostages (at a minimum). It is unclear that this can work. The hostages probably would be killed before they could be reached.

The Israeli population undoubtedly believes that Hamas must be eradicated in Gaza. To do that will however require the IDF to fight an urban battle in a densely built up area with a population of 2.3 million people. Of that 2.3 million, how many will resist the IDF by actually fighting? How big a "regular" force does Hamas have and how many "irregular" fighters will they get if/when the IDF invades? I am not sure Israeli intelligence has a good estimate of the former and I am virtually certain nobody (including Hamas) has one for the latter. Urban warfare, even for a "superior" military force, entails high casualties. Air power is of limited utility in this kind of warfare. The IDF will need draftees to do this task, whatever it ends up being. The Israeli populace will certainly support the IDF, at least at the start and probably much longer than such support would last in the US. The high casualties will obviously be a strain on the IDF and cannot be tolerated indefinitely. Can the IDF accomplish it's "mission" (whatever that turns out to be) before the public begins to question the strategy? Who knows, but getting this "wrong" could be a real problem for Israel.

The other "wild card" is Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah is a much greater military threat to Israel than Hamas could be in their wildest dreams. The IDF could and would defeat Hezbollah if it attacked Israel (either via missiles, troops, or both) without question. The IDF would take casualties, and would need to invade parts of Lebanon and Syria to do it, but they could and would do exactly that. However, their ability to do this while fighting an urban warfare battle in the south becomes questionable. It may require a "Hezbollah first" strategy, but if Hezbollah doesn't attack immediately but rather waits for Israel to become deeply committed in Gaza, what then? Some will say a preemptive strike in the North is required. There is precedent for this approach. No matter how one looks at it, this situation is fraught with peril for all involved (and those who don't want to be involved but may be compelled to act by "events").

I don't have any idea what Israel will decide to do, but I don't envy their choices.

[TrumpCard]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

I like this post.  Few people, if any, really understand this conflict.  It has been ongoing for ages.  The players have morphed over time.  The regional power hierarchy and alliances have changed substantially as well.  Some of the events today flow from legacies of years, or decades, or centuries past.  Some events happen by chance.  Some of the players act for reasons that appear irrational.  Other players act in their own self-interest, even though that diverges from the interest of the people they purport to represent.  Those of us who claim to fully understand what's happening mostly suffer from the type of hubris that caused Israel to be unprepared for the attack on Saturday.

[TrumpCard]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

I like this post.  Few people, if any, really understand this conflict.  It has been ongoing for ages.  The players have morphed over time.  The regional power hierarchy and alliances have changed substantially as well.  Some of the events today flow from legacies of years, or decades, or centuries past.  Some events happen by chance.  Some of the players act for reasons that appear irrational.  Other players act in their own self-interest, even though that diverges from the interest of the people they purport to represent.  Those of us who claim to fully understand what's happening mostly suffer from the type of hubris that caused Israel to be unprepared for the attack on Saturday.

[MV72018]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

One reason that Hamas chose to launch this dastardly attack might be to effectively prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia from reaching an agreement and establishing diplomatic relations. From Hamas's point of view, such an agreement might further isolate the Palestinians, politically speaking.

[MV72018]

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

One reason that Hamas chose to launch this dastardly attack might be to effectively prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia from reaching an agreement and establishing diplomatic relations. From Hamas's point of view, such an agreement might further isolate the Palestinians, politically speaking.

[rogpodge]

So long as Hamas has political control over Gaza, there will be no peace AND the Palestinian people will continue to suffer. Israel worked with the PLO to build infrastructure. But when the Palestinians elected Hamas, they chose misery and war. Where did the billions in US "humanitarian" aid go? Not into building a better life for the Palestinians.

I don't have any illusions about who will govern Gaza / the Palestinians in the future. All I know is that the pro-Palestine folks ignore the damage that Hamas has wrought since 2007. And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

[rogpodge]

So long as Hamas has political control over Gaza, there will be no peace AND the Palestinian people will continue to suffer. Israel worked with the PLO to build infrastructure. But when the Palestinians elected Hamas, they chose misery and war. Where did the billions in US "humanitarian" aid go? Not into building a better life for the Palestinians.

I don't have any illusions about who will govern Gaza / the Palestinians in the future. All I know is that the pro-Palestine folks ignore the damage that Hamas has wrought since 2007. And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

[Goose]

I don't have any illusions about who will govern Gaza / the Palestinians in the future. All I know is that the pro-Palestine folks ignore the damage that Hamas has wrought since 2007. And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

Israel may believe that if they can drive Hamas out and keep them out, the Palestinian Authority can re-assert control in Gaza. It would seem that is the only way forward that doesn't involve an indefinite occupation of Gaza, which Israel has already deemed impractical from their previous experience. Will/can this work? It is going to be difficult to create the preconditions to even try, but what other course of action is even vaguely possible?

[Goose]

I don't have any illusions about who will govern Gaza / the Palestinians in the future. All I know is that the pro-Palestine folks ignore the damage that Hamas has wrought since 2007. And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

Israel may believe that if they can drive Hamas out and keep them out, the Palestinian Authority can re-assert control in Gaza. It would seem that is the only way forward that doesn't involve an indefinite occupation of Gaza, which Israel has already deemed impractical from their previous experience. Will/can this work? It is going to be difficult to create the preconditions to even try, but what other course of action is even vaguely possible?

[oldalum]

 And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

yep, no elections have been held since Hamas was voted in.

[oldalum]

 And once you elect a "government" that is willing to engage in terrorism, there's no going back (you're not going to vote them out....).

yep, no elections have been held since Hamas was voted in.

[cardcrimson]

.. . . kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond.

. . . .

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

I think you might want to rephrase your post. Seems like you're worried how the actions in Israel may impact you, while in Israel, kids are killed, wives are raped, and houses burned down.

---

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

One reason that Hamas chose to launch this dastardly attack might be to effectively prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia from reaching an agreement and establishing diplomatic relations. From Hamas's point of view, such an agreement might further isolate the Palestinians, politically speaking.

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

[cardcrimson]

.. . . kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond.

. . . .

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

I think you might want to rephrase your post. Seems like you're worried how the actions in Israel may impact you, while in Israel, kids are killed, wives are raped, and houses burned down.

---

Watched a DW News report this am that said Hamas is offering a "truce" to Israel. I mean yeah, sure, kill my kids, rape my wife, and burn down my house, and I'll agree not to respond. AYFKM?!?!?!!?

I usually think I understand and have at least suggestions for solving conflicts, but I don't understand and have no answers for what is at the root of the now war between Israel and Hamas (Palestinians) or how it can be resolved. I mean I can maybe understand some, maybe most of the issues, but even the positions the parties take on them make no sense to me.

I just know it's really bad and it is going to impact me somehow. I just don't know how yet.

One reason that Hamas chose to launch this dastardly attack might be to effectively prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia from reaching an agreement and establishing diplomatic relations. From Hamas's point of view, such an agreement might further isolate the Palestinians, politically speaking.

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

[81alum]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

[81alum]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

[Goose]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

I would be interested in knowing if the people you know have any idea what Iran plans for Hezbollah participating in this effort. If it were me, I would wait until Israel is deeply committed in Gaza and then have Hezbollah attack at full strength from Lebanon and Syria. That could make life real complicated for the IDF.

[Goose]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

I would be interested in knowing if the people you know have any idea what Iran plans for Hezbollah participating in this effort. If it were me, I would wait until Israel is deeply committed in Gaza and then have Hezbollah attack at full strength from Lebanon and Syria. That could make life real complicated for the IDF.

[81alum]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

I would be interested in knowing if the people you know have any idea what Iran plans for Hezbollah participating in this effort. If it were me, I would wait until Israel is deeply committed in Gaza and then have Hezbollah attack at full strength from Lebanon and Syria. That could make life real complicated for the IDF.

Goose, I will put that to my I.R. friends and see what they say.  That seems plausible to me.  

All I have heard from them so far is the expectation that a long, drawn out urban war in Gaza with lots of civilian deaths will inflame anti-Israeli sentiments in the region, making it impossible for MBS to move ahead.  In fact, MBS was out today expressing support for the Palestinian people, etc.  Iran's worst regional nightmare would be an Israeli/Saudi alliance of some sort, although another Abraham accord is a long ways from that.  

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

[81alum]

Nice insight. Thanks. Iran wouldn't like to see an accord between the Saudis and the Israelis, either. And they are Hamas' bank.

Exactly.    The experts I know believe this is most plausibly an Iranian supported operation that launched at this time for exactly that reason.  And the level of barbarism, hostage taking,  and overall scope of the attack were designed to guarantee an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza.

I would be interested in knowing if the people you know have any idea what Iran plans for Hezbollah participating in this effort. If it were me, I would wait until Israel is deeply committed in Gaza and then have Hezbollah attack at full strength from Lebanon and Syria. That could make life real complicated for the IDF.

Goose, I will put that to my I.R. friends and see what they say.  That seems plausible to me.  

All I have heard from them so far is the expectation that a long, drawn out urban war in Gaza with lots of civilian deaths will inflame anti-Israeli sentiments in the region, making it impossible for MBS to move ahead.  In fact, MBS was out today expressing support for the Palestinian people, etc.  Iran's worst regional nightmare would be an Israeli/Saudi alliance of some sort, although another Abraham accord is a long ways from that.  

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

[cardbored]

Geography. The land area of Gaza is about one-tenth that of Santa Clara County. Of Gaza's tiny footprint on earth, about seventeen percent is a "buffer zone" and off-limits to her residents. So her population of  ~2.3 million people is crammed into a really small space.

Commerce. Gaza is under a complete blockade and has been since Israel lifted its formal military occupation in 2009 or so. Israel controls Gaza's water and electricity supply, and most of its food supply. Gaza is often compared with an open-air prison.

Politics. Hamas is essentially a creation of Israel and the United States, intended to wrest power from Yasser Arafat and the PLO. Israel provided financial and military support to Sheikh Yassin, who was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. An unintended consequence was that when Palestinians were able to choose their own leaders, they elected Hamas. This was a big surprise: an "oh, sh**" moment.

History: no one can unravel thousands of years of conflicting claims about "who started it," who did what to whom first, who is more right, or who is more wrong. The vast majority of people in Israel and Palestine just want to love their children and live a peaceful life. But the status quo is untenable.

Way forward: only one path can lead to peace, and that is an ironclad resort to first principles: (i) no one may ever initiate the use of force against another and (ii) everyone should butt out except for the peoples of Israel and Palestine. Others have to stop using both countries as proxies. There is no outside solution. Aggression will solve nothing. Leaving the two antagonists alone will force them to negotiate and work out a peaceful relationship that can last for years.

[cardbored]

Geography. The land area of Gaza is about one-tenth that of Santa Clara County. Of Gaza's tiny footprint on earth, about seventeen percent is a "buffer zone" and off-limits to her residents. So her population of  ~2.3 million people is crammed into a really small space.

Commerce. Gaza is under a complete blockade and has been since Israel lifted its formal military occupation in 2009 or so. Israel controls Gaza's water and electricity supply, and most of its food supply. Gaza is often compared with an open-air prison.

Politics. Hamas is essentially a creation of Israel and the United States, intended to wrest power from Yasser Arafat and the PLO. Israel provided financial and military support to Sheikh Yassin, who was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. An unintended consequence was that when Palestinians were able to choose their own leaders, they elected Hamas. This was a big surprise: an "oh, sh**" moment.

History: no one can unravel thousands of years of conflicting claims about "who started it," who did what to whom first, who is more right, or who is more wrong. The vast majority of people in Israel and Palestine just want to love their children and live a peaceful life. But the status quo is untenable.

Way forward: only one path can lead to peace, and that is an ironclad resort to first principles: (i) no one may ever initiate the use of force against another and (ii) everyone should butt out except for the peoples of Israel and Palestine. Others have to stop using both countries as proxies. There is no outside solution. Aggression will solve nothing. Leaving the two antagonists alone will force them to negotiate and work out a peaceful relationship that can last for years.

[Goose]

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Iran may believe it can compel Israel to seek terms with Hamas. It would be a big gamble, because Hezbollah may be permanently crippled if it doesn't work, but if Israel has to negotiate, it will make Iran much stronger politically with everybody in the middle east. It could also be that Iran hopes it can force the US to intervene directly. This is a much more dangerous course of action (for many reasons), but if it happens it will definitely cause a major breakdown in US political influence with any Muslim countries in the middle east. It could put the US in a "damned if you do,  damned if you don't" situation. Our domestic political situation is such that we really, really don't want to face such a choice.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

It does indeed. Additionally, I don't believe the benefit/cost ratio to Iran justifies destroying their proxy in Gaza to prevent an Israel/Saudi agreement. Given the Saudi's absolute monarchy, they don't have to keep their word on anything. Their "alliance" with Israel will be one of convenience, not conviction. I can't imagine Iran is playing for those relatively low stakes. Of course, as you point out, it doesn't have to be "rational". Hamas may have just done it because they could with no real strategic aim.

[Goose]

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Iran may believe it can compel Israel to seek terms with Hamas. It would be a big gamble, because Hezbollah may be permanently crippled if it doesn't work, but if Israel has to negotiate, it will make Iran much stronger politically with everybody in the middle east. It could also be that Iran hopes it can force the US to intervene directly. This is a much more dangerous course of action (for many reasons), but if it happens it will definitely cause a major breakdown in US political influence with any Muslim countries in the middle east. It could put the US in a "damned if you do,  damned if you don't" situation. Our domestic political situation is such that we really, really don't want to face such a choice.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

It does indeed. Additionally, I don't believe the benefit/cost ratio to Iran justifies destroying their proxy in Gaza to prevent an Israel/Saudi agreement. Given the Saudi's absolute monarchy, they don't have to keep their word on anything. Their "alliance" with Israel will be one of convenience, not conviction. I can't imagine Iran is playing for those relatively low stakes. Of course, as you point out, it doesn't have to be "rational". Hamas may have just done it because they could with no real strategic aim.

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1711913141934645757?s=20[/tweet]

Very important development if it happens. Egypt has thus far kept their borders closed, and as all the land borders with Israel are closed, Palestinians really have nowhere safe to go to avoid Israeli bombs. The IDF has not been really subtle in their public messaging that they are expecting and tolerating lots of civilian casualties.

The one, possibly two, carrier groups going to the Eastern Med are clearly meant to try and dissuade other regional actors from getting involved.

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1711913141934645757?s=20[/tweet]

Very important development if it happens. Egypt has thus far kept their borders closed, and as all the land borders with Israel are closed, Palestinians really have nowhere safe to go to avoid Israeli bombs. The IDF has not been really subtle in their public messaging that they are expecting and tolerating lots of civilian casualties.

The one, possibly two, carrier groups going to the Eastern Med are clearly meant to try and dissuade other regional actors from getting involved.