[JustAnotherFan]

How optimistic should we get?

Coronavirus vaccine: Oxford trial is 'safe' and produces immune reaction, first study results show. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/healt...28491.html

[JustAnotherFan]

How optimistic should we get?

Coronavirus vaccine: Oxford trial is 'safe' and produces immune reaction, first study results show. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/healt...28491.html

[OutsiderFan]

It doesn't seem the hurdle that matters is evoking an immune response.  That seems relatively easy. The one that does matter is how long that evoked immune response will last, and obviously any side effects. 

I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits.  Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use.  A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL.  The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level.  Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.

[OutsiderFan]

It doesn't seem the hurdle that matters is evoking an immune response.  That seems relatively easy. The one that does matter is how long that evoked immune response will last, and obviously any side effects. 

I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits.  Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use.  A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL.  The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level.  Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.

[BostonCard]

About 70% of vaccines succeed in phase I clinical trials.  Conditional on success in a phase I trial, about 20% succeed in phase 2 clinical trials (so about 14% of candidates succeed overall through phase 2).  Conditional on making it that far, a bit over 80% succeed in phase 3 clinical trials (12% overall).  Note that this is overall success, and includes a few diseases (HIV, TB, malaria) for which vaccine development has been very elusive.  As best we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 is not expected to be tricky in the way those diseases is.

That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073

BC

[BostonCard]

About 70% of vaccines succeed in phase I clinical trials.  Conditional on success in a phase I trial, about 20% succeed in phase 2 clinical trials (so about 14% of candidates succeed overall through phase 2).  Conditional on making it that far, a bit over 80% succeed in phase 3 clinical trials (12% overall).  Note that this is overall success, and includes a few diseases (HIV, TB, malaria) for which vaccine development has been very elusive.  As best we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 is not expected to be tricky in the way those diseases is.

That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073

BC

[JustAnotherFan]

It doesn't seem the hurdle that matters is evoking an immune response.  That seems relatively easy. The one that does matter is how long that evoked immune response will last, and obviously any side effects. 

I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits.  Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use.  A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL.  The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level.  Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.

About 70% of vaccines succeed in phase I clinical trials.  Conditional on success in a phase I trial, about 20% succeed in phase 2 clinical trials (so about 14% of candidates succeed overall through phase 2).  Conditional on making it that far, a bit over 80% succeed in phase 3 clinical trials (12% overall).  Note that this is overall success, and includes a few diseases (HIV, TB, malaria) for which vaccine development has been very elusive.  As best we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 is not expected to be tricky in the way those diseases is.

That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073

BC

Thanks so much for the input! I knew there was a reason I wasn't too excited.

[JustAnotherFan]

It doesn't seem the hurdle that matters is evoking an immune response.  That seems relatively easy. The one that does matter is how long that evoked immune response will last, and obviously any side effects. 

I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits.  Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use.  A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL.  The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level.  Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.

About 70% of vaccines succeed in phase I clinical trials.  Conditional on success in a phase I trial, about 20% succeed in phase 2 clinical trials (so about 14% of candidates succeed overall through phase 2).  Conditional on making it that far, a bit over 80% succeed in phase 3 clinical trials (12% overall).  Note that this is overall success, and includes a few diseases (HIV, TB, malaria) for which vaccine development has been very elusive.  As best we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 is not expected to be tricky in the way those diseases is.

That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073

BC

Thanks so much for the input! I knew there was a reason I wasn't too excited.

[akiddoc]

"Eliciting an immune response" is not the same as "preventing disease" or preventing autoimmune disease as a response to the virus or from exposure to the vaccine. We've still got a way to go. I'm hoping one of these vaccines works well. And safely.

[akiddoc]

"Eliciting an immune response" is not the same as "preventing disease" or preventing autoimmune disease as a response to the virus or from exposure to the vaccine. We've still got a way to go. I'm hoping one of these vaccines works well. And safely.