[M T]

(Continuing a COVID topic cut off by a divergent discussion)

The 55% positive rate of tests in Mexico is clearly due to insufficient testing.  I suspect they are testing only SOME of those with symptoms.

Mexico's official numbers are at  https://coronavirus.gob.mx/datos/
I recorded them on 6/21 and on 6/22:
Confirmed: 180,545  185,122   +4,577
Negative: 242,393  246,147    +3,754
Suspected: 56,590  57,281      +691
Died 21,825  22,584              +759
Recovered: 135,279  140,118  +4,839
Active: 24,225    23,155         -1,070


Tests between 6/21 and 6/22:  4577+3754 = 8,331
4577/(4577+3754) =  54.94%  positive rate
It is interesting that the number of active cases went down with that kind of positive test rate. 

Mexico's population is 129M.  The US population is 330M.
Scale Mexico's tests to the US and it would be about  21,312 daily tests, about 4% of the US testing rate.
Mexico's daily CONFIRMED cases/100K = 3.55.  US is 7.94

For the US, in the last week, the new results from tests have been 192,175 positive and 3,395,847 negative (5.36% positive rate).
There are only 63,864 recovered in the week, meaning there are 128,311 more active cases today than 7 days ago.
(Mexico official numbers indicate that they decreased in active cases in the one day I have data for).

The US numbers are from the COVID Tracking Project.  I don't yet know that I can trust their numbers.

[M T]

(Continuing a COVID topic cut off by a divergent discussion)

The 55% positive rate of tests in Mexico is clearly due to insufficient testing.  I suspect they are testing only SOME of those with symptoms.

Mexico's official numbers are at  https://coronavirus.gob.mx/datos/
I recorded them on 6/21 and on 6/22:
Confirmed: 180,545  185,122   +4,577
Negative: 242,393  246,147    +3,754
Suspected: 56,590  57,281      +691
Died 21,825  22,584              +759
Recovered: 135,279  140,118  +4,839
Active: 24,225    23,155         -1,070


Tests between 6/21 and 6/22:  4577+3754 = 8,331
4577/(4577+3754) =  54.94%  positive rate
It is interesting that the number of active cases went down with that kind of positive test rate. 

Mexico's population is 129M.  The US population is 330M.
Scale Mexico's tests to the US and it would be about  21,312 daily tests, about 4% of the US testing rate.
Mexico's daily CONFIRMED cases/100K = 3.55.  US is 7.94

For the US, in the last week, the new results from tests have been 192,175 positive and 3,395,847 negative (5.36% positive rate).
There are only 63,864 recovered in the week, meaning there are 128,311 more active cases today than 7 days ago.
(Mexico official numbers indicate that they decreased in active cases in the one day I have data for).

The US numbers are from the COVID Tracking Project.  I don't yet know that I can trust their numbers.

[BostonCard]

Yesterday, Mexico led the world in deaths from COVID-19 (at 1044).  Their seven day moving average of 670 cases means that a couple weeks ago they were geting 20,000 - 30,000 new cases (depending on what case fatality rate you use).

With 22,500 total deaths, they've probably had over 1 million symptomatic cases; the 185,000 reported cases are a dramatic underestimate.

BC

[BostonCard]

Yesterday, Mexico led the world in deaths from COVID-19 (at 1044).  Their seven day moving average of 670 cases means that a couple weeks ago they were geting 20,000 - 30,000 new cases (depending on what case fatality rate you use).

With 22,500 total deaths, they've probably had over 1 million symptomatic cases; the 185,000 reported cases are a dramatic underestimate.

BC

[oregontim]

M T and BC thanks for the Mexico info here. I asked. The people there that I'm talking to in Mexico are frustrated with the lack of urgency in general. These numbers match their view.

[oregontim]

M T and BC thanks for the Mexico info here. I asked. The people there that I'm talking to in Mexico are frustrated with the lack of urgency in general. These numbers match their view.

[Farm93]

M T and BC thanks for the Mexico info here. I asked. The people there that I'm talking to in Mexico are frustrated with the lack of urgency in general. These numbers match their view.

What is all of this about testing, cases and deaths.   Everyone knows if you test fewer people you will have fewer cases.

;)

[Farm93]

M T and BC thanks for the Mexico info here. I asked. The people there that I'm talking to in Mexico are frustrated with the lack of urgency in general. These numbers match their view.

What is all of this about testing, cases and deaths.   Everyone knows if you test fewer people you will have fewer cases.

;)

[magnus]

  Everyone knows if you test fewer people you will have fewer cases.

;)

Evidently the CDC knew this from the start.  =P

[magnus]

  Everyone knows if you test fewer people you will have fewer cases.

;)

Evidently the CDC knew this from the start.  =P