[BostonCard]

I missed Mick's weekly post.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-than-3...020-05-28/

Some 2.1 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 23, the Labor Department said Thursday. Another 1.2 million applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a new federal program expanding jobless aid to self-employed and gig workers.

and

"The U.S. economy is suffering its most traumatic job loss in history, with twice as many Americans put out of work over the last two months than during the entire Great Recession," Oxford Economics analysts wrote in a research note. "Sadly, more pain awaits in May. But labor market conditions should start to improve thereafter as shuttered businesses reopen."

BC

---

I think it is probably worth mentioning that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped from 24.9 million to 21.1 million, so even as 3.3 million people filed for first time unemployment benefits, some 7.1 million dropped off, hopefully because they were rehired.

About 80% of those who became unemployed in April expect to be back at their jobs within six months, according to Labor Department figures.

Maybe wishful thinking, but it would be great if the vast majority of those laid off were only laid off temporarily.

BC

[BostonCard]

I missed Mick's weekly post.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-than-3...020-05-28/

Some 2.1 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 23, the Labor Department said Thursday. Another 1.2 million applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a new federal program expanding jobless aid to self-employed and gig workers.

and

"The U.S. economy is suffering its most traumatic job loss in history, with twice as many Americans put out of work over the last two months than during the entire Great Recession," Oxford Economics analysts wrote in a research note. "Sadly, more pain awaits in May. But labor market conditions should start to improve thereafter as shuttered businesses reopen."

BC

---

I think it is probably worth mentioning that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped from 24.9 million to 21.1 million, so even as 3.3 million people filed for first time unemployment benefits, some 7.1 million dropped off, hopefully because they were rehired.

About 80% of those who became unemployed in April expect to be back at their jobs within six months, according to Labor Department figures.

Maybe wishful thinking, but it would be great if the vast majority of those laid off were only laid off temporarily.

BC

[Mick]

I think it is probably worth mentioning that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped from 24.9 million to 21.1 million, so even as 3.3 million people filed for first time unemployment benefits, some 7.1 million dropped off, hopefully because they were rehired.

About 80% of those who became unemployed in April expect to be back at their jobs within six months, according to Labor Department figures.

Maybe wishful thinking, but it would be great if the vast majority of those laid off were only laid off temporarily.

BC

Man, I hope so.  I really, really hope so. That was a massive reversal. I hope they're not gaming the statistics.  I would consider it quite unexpected, given the Fed's Beige Book statistics published two days ago: "Employment continued to decrease in all Districts, including steep losses in most Districts, as social distancing and business closures affected employment at many firms. "

And...
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. 
* Consumer spending fell further as mandated closures of retail establishments remained largely in place during most of the survey period. 
* Declines were especially severe in the leisure and hospitality sector, with very little activity at travel and tourism businesses. 
* Auto sales were substantially lower than a year ago, although several Districts noted recent improvement. 
* A majority of Districts reported sharp drops in manufacturing activity, and production was notably weak in auto, aerospace, and energy-related plants.
* Residential home sales plunged due in part to fewer new listings and to restrictions on home showings in many areas. 
* Construction activity also fell as new projects failed to materialize in many Districts. 
* Commercial real estate contacts mentioned that a large number of retail tenants had deferred or missed rent payments. 
* Bankers reported strong demand for PPP loans. 
* Agricultural conditions worsened, with several Districts reporting reduced production capacity at meat-processing plants due to closures and social distancing measures. 
* Energy activity plummeted as firms announced oil well closures, which led to historically low levels of active drilling rigs. 

Although many contacts expressed hope that overall activity would pick-up as businesses reopened, the outlook remained highly uncertain and most contacts were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp...ummary.htm

[Mick]

I think it is probably worth mentioning that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped from 24.9 million to 21.1 million, so even as 3.3 million people filed for first time unemployment benefits, some 7.1 million dropped off, hopefully because they were rehired.

About 80% of those who became unemployed in April expect to be back at their jobs within six months, according to Labor Department figures.

Maybe wishful thinking, but it would be great if the vast majority of those laid off were only laid off temporarily.

BC

Man, I hope so.  I really, really hope so. That was a massive reversal. I hope they're not gaming the statistics.  I would consider it quite unexpected, given the Fed's Beige Book statistics published two days ago: "Employment continued to decrease in all Districts, including steep losses in most Districts, as social distancing and business closures affected employment at many firms. "

And...
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. 
* Consumer spending fell further as mandated closures of retail establishments remained largely in place during most of the survey period. 
* Declines were especially severe in the leisure and hospitality sector, with very little activity at travel and tourism businesses. 
* Auto sales were substantially lower than a year ago, although several Districts noted recent improvement. 
* A majority of Districts reported sharp drops in manufacturing activity, and production was notably weak in auto, aerospace, and energy-related plants.
* Residential home sales plunged due in part to fewer new listings and to restrictions on home showings in many areas. 
* Construction activity also fell as new projects failed to materialize in many Districts. 
* Commercial real estate contacts mentioned that a large number of retail tenants had deferred or missed rent payments. 
* Bankers reported strong demand for PPP loans. 
* Agricultural conditions worsened, with several Districts reporting reduced production capacity at meat-processing plants due to closures and social distancing measures. 
* Energy activity plummeted as firms announced oil well closures, which led to historically low levels of active drilling rigs. 

Although many contacts expressed hope that overall activity would pick-up as businesses reopened, the outlook remained highly uncertain and most contacts were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp...ummary.htm

[Hurlburt88]

My understanding is that the weekly unemployment claims number includes people on furlough or temporary layoff, but I have not dug into the numbers to see if there is any estimate of permanent versus temporary job loss, and every flavor in between.    As I have previously posted, my company is using week-long furloughs aggressively to preserve jobs for the long-term.    We did lay off about 4% of the workforce in early april, but most of these were early retirements or poor performers who would have been leaving within year anyway.

[Hurlburt88]

My understanding is that the weekly unemployment claims number includes people on furlough or temporary layoff, but I have not dug into the numbers to see if there is any estimate of permanent versus temporary job loss, and every flavor in between.    As I have previously posted, my company is using week-long furloughs aggressively to preserve jobs for the long-term.    We did lay off about 4% of the workforce in early april, but most of these were early retirements or poor performers who would have been leaving within year anyway.