[dabigv13]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opini...ation.html

This is a really good article about what lies ahead informed by experience from 1918 pandemic flu, with a good command of the existing knowledge of covid19 and the differences between the two. John Barry wrote The Great Influenza, supposed to be one of the best accounts of the pandemic (waiting for it to restock on Amazon).

I agree with everything in it. I suspect there is some seasonal effect, but more strongly counteracted by the large number of uninfected. Mostly I agree with his conclusion that we will need to test and trace and isolate our way out of this, like a diverse group of countries already have. If Vietnam and South Korea can manage it so can we. Anything less is surrender monkey defeatism.

[dabigv13]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opini...ation.html

This is a really good article about what lies ahead informed by experience from 1918 pandemic flu, with a good command of the existing knowledge of covid19 and the differences between the two. John Barry wrote The Great Influenza, supposed to be one of the best accounts of the pandemic (waiting for it to restock on Amazon).

I agree with everything in it. I suspect there is some seasonal effect, but more strongly counteracted by the large number of uninfected. Mostly I agree with his conclusion that we will need to test and trace and isolate our way out of this, like a diverse group of countries already have. If Vietnam and South Korea can manage it so can we. Anything less is surrender monkey defeatism.

[Goose]

I agree with the concept that we need to build a track and trace army equipped with adequate testing capability. However, there is one thing the article states that is at this time not true. The countries that made track and trace work never reached the point they had a large percentage of "community spread". Nobody has gone through the transition from out of control, social distancing, and the track and trace. We haven't seen how that goes yet so it will be de novo when we do it. I certainly believe it is possible to make this work. I am extremely worried that we are not doing enough to make it do so. It may be this is all happening behind the scenes, but that is hard to believe IMHO.

[Goose]

I agree with the concept that we need to build a track and trace army equipped with adequate testing capability. However, there is one thing the article states that is at this time not true. The countries that made track and trace work never reached the point they had a large percentage of "community spread". Nobody has gone through the transition from out of control, social distancing, and the track and trace. We haven't seen how that goes yet so it will be de novo when we do it. I certainly believe it is possible to make this work. I am extremely worried that we are not doing enough to make it do so. It may be this is all happening behind the scenes, but that is hard to believe IMHO.