04-11-2020, 07:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2020, 07:20 PM by Genuine Realist.)
During the lull, I have been going over a Great Courses presentation I bought some time ago, The Economic History of the World since 1400, which I have linked, since the material is terrific, even though the lecturer is maybe the dullest public speaker I have ever heard. He begins with a summary of the 14th Century (1300-1400), easily the worst century in recorded history in Eurasia.
It featured war - the Hundred Year's War was fought largely in that century - and famine. Abrupt climate change (!) at the beginning of the century resulted in rainier, longer winters in Europe and failed harvests. (The new conditions held sway for the next few centuries.) Five to ten percent of the English population died of hunger in the first quarter of the century. But on the other end of the land mass, drier conditions forced ground rodents into areas they had not frequented, there was some flea hopping, and that brought with it the Black Death.
It began in China, and maybe even the Wuhan province - the speaker mentions in passing that the city of Hubei lost 90% of its population. In any case, it devastated China, then came west with the Mongol invaders along the Silk Road. Its introduction to Europe came at the seige of Kaffa in the Crimea in 1343-1356. Eastern rats met Western rats, then came West to Genoa on with Genoese merchants. The plague first appeared in 1347. Then all hell broke loose.
Between 1350 and 1370 - in just, twenty years - the continent of Europe lost 50% of its population. Wow. For example, in Italy the population of the city of Florence, 110 to 120,000 in 1338 was reduced to 38,000 in 1356. London lost half its citizens, Paris 80%. The population of Europe did not recover to pre-plague levels for more than 200 years, to 1600.
I'm writing this because one can envision a virus that is far more devastating than C-19. We have in fact experienced that, as noted. Of course, health standards and medical knowledge are infinitely greater than what was known in 1340. You read about medieval hygiene and you wonder how anyone lived to be ten. Also, an outbreak that has a mortality rate of even 10%, let alone the horrific rate of the Black Death, would have caused world wide panic within days of identification. There would be an instant reaction, not the comparatively slow awakening here.
But even so, we are dealing with a virus that in some respects is much milder than it might have been. Something to keep in mind, as the world shrinks. Before the Black Death, the last major disease wave to sweep through Europe was during the reign of the Emperor Justinian, nearly 800 years before. Now we see new flus seasonally, and pandemics every decade. We certainly have not seen the last, and quite possibly not even the most serious.
It featured war - the Hundred Year's War was fought largely in that century - and famine. Abrupt climate change (!) at the beginning of the century resulted in rainier, longer winters in Europe and failed harvests. (The new conditions held sway for the next few centuries.) Five to ten percent of the English population died of hunger in the first quarter of the century. But on the other end of the land mass, drier conditions forced ground rodents into areas they had not frequented, there was some flea hopping, and that brought with it the Black Death.
It began in China, and maybe even the Wuhan province - the speaker mentions in passing that the city of Hubei lost 90% of its population. In any case, it devastated China, then came west with the Mongol invaders along the Silk Road. Its introduction to Europe came at the seige of Kaffa in the Crimea in 1343-1356. Eastern rats met Western rats, then came West to Genoa on with Genoese merchants. The plague first appeared in 1347. Then all hell broke loose.
Between 1350 and 1370 - in just, twenty years - the continent of Europe lost 50% of its population. Wow. For example, in Italy the population of the city of Florence, 110 to 120,000 in 1338 was reduced to 38,000 in 1356. London lost half its citizens, Paris 80%. The population of Europe did not recover to pre-plague levels for more than 200 years, to 1600.
I'm writing this because one can envision a virus that is far more devastating than C-19. We have in fact experienced that, as noted. Of course, health standards and medical knowledge are infinitely greater than what was known in 1340. You read about medieval hygiene and you wonder how anyone lived to be ten. Also, an outbreak that has a mortality rate of even 10%, let alone the horrific rate of the Black Death, would have caused world wide panic within days of identification. There would be an instant reaction, not the comparatively slow awakening here.
But even so, we are dealing with a virus that in some respects is much milder than it might have been. Something to keep in mind, as the world shrinks. Before the Black Death, the last major disease wave to sweep through Europe was during the reign of the Emperor Justinian, nearly 800 years before. Now we see new flus seasonally, and pandemics every decade. We certainly have not seen the last, and quite possibly not even the most serious.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.
