[stupac2]

All that I've been saying, and I've been clear about this repeatedly, is that the decision wasn't obviously wrong. The fact that this has gone so back and forth and that the cases you two are presenting rely a lot on various inferences shows that. It wasn't obviously wrong! You think it made us less likely to win the game, and maybe it did, but you don't know. There are plenty of situations where you could know, like if that had been 4th and 2 and we punted.

Also, I totally and completely disagree about judging decisions based on outcomes, that is 100% what's wrong with most fans' thinking about these issues. Horrible decision-making with terrific luck can lead to good outcomes, and good decision-making with lousy luck can lead to bad outcomes. You absolutely have to remove the outcome from your mind and look at the decision with the knowledge the coach had and what they could reasonably expect. Anything else is just post-hoc rationalization.

[stupac2]

All that I've been saying, and I've been clear about this repeatedly, is that the decision wasn't obviously wrong. The fact that this has gone so back and forth and that the cases you two are presenting rely a lot on various inferences shows that. It wasn't obviously wrong! You think it made us less likely to win the game, and maybe it did, but you don't know. There are plenty of situations where you could know, like if that had been 4th and 2 and we punted.

Also, I totally and completely disagree about judging decisions based on outcomes, that is 100% what's wrong with most fans' thinking about these issues. Horrible decision-making with terrific luck can lead to good outcomes, and good decision-making with lousy luck can lead to bad outcomes. You absolutely have to remove the outcome from your mind and look at the decision with the knowledge the coach had and what they could reasonably expect. Anything else is just post-hoc rationalization.