[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11130.msg105592#msg105592 date=1416345308]But the decision to punt with 1:30 left in regulation was terrible.

It wasn't! If Williamson misses the one in OT no one is making this argument, and that's a really bad way to think about this. He hasn't been a great kicker this year, missing far easier kicks, and it was longer than his career long. He misses that kick more often than not, and if he does the best case scenario is where we ended up anyway. Plus if Rector hauls in that long bomb once we got the ball back, again, no one is questioning this decision.

You can't judge decisions based on what happened afterward, but what the various probabilities were when the decision was made. And it is just absolutely not the case that punting clearly lowered our win%.
[/quote]

You are assuming a lot in about what would happen in alternative universes.

The best arbiter of whether a decision is good or not is whether it works. It's not perfect - there are multiple options that might succeed or fail in any situation - but the actual result is a better measure than fantasizing about probabilities that are not and cannot be known.

If you think the coach made a bad decision but it worked or if you think the coach made a good decision but it didn't work, you might at least briefly question whether you have all those percentages correct.


At this point you are comparing chances to even up. In trying the FG, you have to balance the probability of making it versus the chance you lose if you miss. In my estimation, at 51 yards Williamson had a much better chance of making the FG than Utah would have had in driving the approximately 30 yards in 1:30 to have their own chance at a FG and then actually making it.

On our chances of making it: Williamson's has a very strong leg and length hasn't been an issue for him - accuracy has. His success rate has not been a strong function of distance up to 50 yards.
20-29 yds: 2-4
30-39 yds: 6-8
40-49 yds: 3-5
50+ yds:    1-1

On Utah's chances of driving for and making a FG after a miss: Four times previously in the game, Utah had started drives with field position better or equal to what they would have had after the hypothetical missed FG and had failed to score, compared to one drive where they had scored (without clock pressure). And Phillips, while very good, is not perfect.


However, of course in the end we are arguing about an inherently unknowable issue.

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11130.msg105592#msg105592 date=1416345308]But the decision to punt with 1:30 left in regulation was terrible.

It wasn't! If Williamson misses the one in OT no one is making this argument, and that's a really bad way to think about this. He hasn't been a great kicker this year, missing far easier kicks, and it was longer than his career long. He misses that kick more often than not, and if he does the best case scenario is where we ended up anyway. Plus if Rector hauls in that long bomb once we got the ball back, again, no one is questioning this decision.

You can't judge decisions based on what happened afterward, but what the various probabilities were when the decision was made. And it is just absolutely not the case that punting clearly lowered our win%.
[/quote]

You are assuming a lot in about what would happen in alternative universes.

The best arbiter of whether a decision is good or not is whether it works. It's not perfect - there are multiple options that might succeed or fail in any situation - but the actual result is a better measure than fantasizing about probabilities that are not and cannot be known.

If you think the coach made a bad decision but it worked or if you think the coach made a good decision but it didn't work, you might at least briefly question whether you have all those percentages correct.


At this point you are comparing chances to even up. In trying the FG, you have to balance the probability of making it versus the chance you lose if you miss. In my estimation, at 51 yards Williamson had a much better chance of making the FG than Utah would have had in driving the approximately 30 yards in 1:30 to have their own chance at a FG and then actually making it.

On our chances of making it: Williamson's has a very strong leg and length hasn't been an issue for him - accuracy has. His success rate has not been a strong function of distance up to 50 yards.
20-29 yds: 2-4
30-39 yds: 6-8
40-49 yds: 3-5
50+ yds:    1-1

On Utah's chances of driving for and making a FG after a miss: Four times previously in the game, Utah had started drives with field position better or equal to what they would have had after the hypothetical missed FG and had failed to score, compared to one drive where they had scored (without clock pressure). And Phillips, while very good, is not perfect.


However, of course in the end we are arguing about an inherently unknowable issue.