[stupac2]

But the decision to punt with 1:30 left in regulation was terrible.

It wasn't! If Williamson misses the one in OT no one is making this argument, and that's a really bad way to think about this. He hasn't been a great kicker this year, missing far easier kicks, and it was longer than his career long. He misses that kick more often than not, and if he does the best case scenario is where we ended up anyway. Plus if Rector hauls in that long bomb once we got the ball back, again, no one is questioning this decision.

You can't judge decisions based on what happened afterward, but what the various probabilities were when the decision was made. And it is just absolutely not the case that punting clearly lowered our win%.

I dunno stupac2.  I would say most coaches don't make those truly boneheaded decisions (else they wouldn't be coaching at the D1 level).  And that lack of truly stupid decision-making means that the bar is set higher for playcalling success.  When Shaw forgoes FGs for field position, you have to wonder if he keeps score by yards instead of points.

I don't pay as much attention to what non-Stanford college coaches are doing, but in the NFL they're terrible at it. Look at Barnwell's "Thank You For Not Coaching" column (which, sadly, he no longer does), basically every coach makes decisions that are obviously bad, and many of them do it consistently. Ron Rivera is a great example of someone who was positively wretched at it before seeing the light and making better decisions. I really do not believe based on watching Shaw for 4 years that he's below-average at this. I think that the number of times that he's significantly lowered our odds of winning based on an in-game decision is small, and pretty much dominated by the ending of the Fiesta Bowl.

[stupac2]

But the decision to punt with 1:30 left in regulation was terrible.

It wasn't! If Williamson misses the one in OT no one is making this argument, and that's a really bad way to think about this. He hasn't been a great kicker this year, missing far easier kicks, and it was longer than his career long. He misses that kick more often than not, and if he does the best case scenario is where we ended up anyway. Plus if Rector hauls in that long bomb once we got the ball back, again, no one is questioning this decision.

You can't judge decisions based on what happened afterward, but what the various probabilities were when the decision was made. And it is just absolutely not the case that punting clearly lowered our win%.

I dunno stupac2.  I would say most coaches don't make those truly boneheaded decisions (else they wouldn't be coaching at the D1 level).  And that lack of truly stupid decision-making means that the bar is set higher for playcalling success.  When Shaw forgoes FGs for field position, you have to wonder if he keeps score by yards instead of points.

I don't pay as much attention to what non-Stanford college coaches are doing, but in the NFL they're terrible at it. Look at Barnwell's "Thank You For Not Coaching" column (which, sadly, he no longer does), basically every coach makes decisions that are obviously bad, and many of them do it consistently. Ron Rivera is a great example of someone who was positively wretched at it before seeing the light and making better decisions. I really do not believe based on watching Shaw for 4 years that he's below-average at this. I think that the number of times that he's significantly lowered our odds of winning based on an in-game decision is small, and pretty much dominated by the ending of the Fiesta Bowl.