[washingtonismoney]

I understand the theory, but those shots are available to Travis, at least tonight, because his defender is sagging big time on Nastic.  If he could make them, that would help Nastic to be even more effective.

They may be available, but they're available because Travis isn't a good shooter. Mathematically midrange jumpshots are bad shots. The dominant defensive strategies since the late aughts in the pros revolve around the idea that it's great to have your opponent taking lots of open or semi-open midrange jumpshots.

Let's put some numbers to it. Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash are, as far as we can tell, by far the best midrange jumpshooters in the past decade. They make midrange jumpshots at roughly a 50% clip. That means the expected value of their midrange jumpshot is 1 point. You only need to hit three-pointers 33% of the time to have the same expected value as the very best midrange jumpshooters of the past decade.

(Oversimplified, of course: there's fouls and offensive boards to account for. But still.)

And, of course, the numbers look worse at the college level. The three-point shot is (wrongly) closer to the rim, meaning it's easier than the pro level. That makes the tradeoff of taking more midrange shots than three-pointers even worse. If, over the long run, you're taking a lot more midrange jumpers than three pointers...you're almost certainly a putrid offensive team; i.e., you're poorly coached.

Of course, that's a relatively simple shortcut to describe what's going wrong with Dawkins's offense. The truth is it's simple, and not in a way that accentuates talent. There isn't a ton of misdirection or motion. There's rarely improvisation, unless Randle's mood seizes him. It's kind of blah, as if the group is deciding to follow a recipe or paint by numbers.

[washingtonismoney]

I understand the theory, but those shots are available to Travis, at least tonight, because his defender is sagging big time on Nastic.  If he could make them, that would help Nastic to be even more effective.

They may be available, but they're available because Travis isn't a good shooter. Mathematically midrange jumpshots are bad shots. The dominant defensive strategies since the late aughts in the pros revolve around the idea that it's great to have your opponent taking lots of open or semi-open midrange jumpshots.

Let's put some numbers to it. Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash are, as far as we can tell, by far the best midrange jumpshooters in the past decade. They make midrange jumpshots at roughly a 50% clip. That means the expected value of their midrange jumpshot is 1 point. You only need to hit three-pointers 33% of the time to have the same expected value as the very best midrange jumpshooters of the past decade.

(Oversimplified, of course: there's fouls and offensive boards to account for. But still.)

And, of course, the numbers look worse at the college level. The three-point shot is (wrongly) closer to the rim, meaning it's easier than the pro level. That makes the tradeoff of taking more midrange shots than three-pointers even worse. If, over the long run, you're taking a lot more midrange jumpers than three pointers...you're almost certainly a putrid offensive team; i.e., you're poorly coached.

Of course, that's a relatively simple shortcut to describe what's going wrong with Dawkins's offense. The truth is it's simple, and not in a way that accentuates talent. There isn't a ton of misdirection or motion. There's rarely improvisation, unless Randle's mood seizes him. It's kind of blah, as if the group is deciding to follow a recipe or paint by numbers.