11-03-2014, 09:56 AM
Also, close games require more luck to win, so if you're in it until the end against a good team it's more likely for random chance to swing it your way. Not so much with a 16+ point loss.
Anyway, the way I look at it is like this: Any sane prediction before the year had us going somewhere between 7-5 and 10-2, depending on how a few things came together and how lucky we got. We didn't get lucky in a couple games and the things we needed to come together didn't, so we're staring at the low side of that prediction. But you know what? That happens. Some years you're not going to get lucky, and your prospects won't pan out. I think it's important not to overreact to one season.
What's interesting to me is all the backward comparisons to previous years, because the PAC has gotten a lot better as a whole since then. How many teams in 2011 were legitimate challengers to us or Oregon? USC? Now Colorado and WSU are the only real sure outs. It's not too surprising that we're losing more games as the teams around us have stopped sucking.
Anyway, the way I look at it is like this: Any sane prediction before the year had us going somewhere between 7-5 and 10-2, depending on how a few things came together and how lucky we got. We didn't get lucky in a couple games and the things we needed to come together didn't, so we're staring at the low side of that prediction. But you know what? That happens. Some years you're not going to get lucky, and your prospects won't pan out. I think it's important not to overreact to one season.
What's interesting to me is all the backward comparisons to previous years, because the PAC has gotten a lot better as a whole since then. How many teams in 2011 were legitimate challengers to us or Oregon? USC? Now Colorado and WSU are the only real sure outs. It's not too surprising that we're losing more games as the teams around us have stopped sucking.