[DC]

Correlation vs. causation.  While I think reasonable minds can disagree on Hogan, I don't think looking at his win percentage is particularly instructive for all the same reasons that wins and losses by a starting pitcher are losing significance in baseball.  How would another quarterback fare with a dominant defense and run game churning out NFL draft picks the last two years, plus pass protection that (until this season) rarely broke down and gave all day to throw?  In my humble opinion, this team has been winning the past two seasons with quarterback as the weakest position group on the field, except for the kicking game.

I am cautiously optimistic that Shaw's analysis will be more robust than simply Hogan's win-loss record.

Of course football is a team sports. But win percentage or not, he'll have 30+ games of experience under his belt, career passer rating of more than 140, a better than 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 8+ rushing TDs, etc. He took over the position from a starter with a 7-2 record (yes, behind a dmoninant defense, but still noteworthy) and leapfrogged a recruit who was as highly touted as the player many hear are now clamoring for. He's also played, and won, in some very tough environments. I think Chryst will have to be other-worldly in practice (most likely with the second/string string) and Hogan would have to melt down for Shaw to start weighing Chryst's "potential" against the known commodity which has delivered results. I just don't see it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Hogan apologist (well, perhaps more than many people here), but from what I know of Shaw and what I've seen of Hogan, I really think it's unlikely there will be a change at QB if Hogan chooses to return.

Agreed.  Shaw plays to be respectable, rather than shooting for the stars.

[DC]

Correlation vs. causation.  While I think reasonable minds can disagree on Hogan, I don't think looking at his win percentage is particularly instructive for all the same reasons that wins and losses by a starting pitcher are losing significance in baseball.  How would another quarterback fare with a dominant defense and run game churning out NFL draft picks the last two years, plus pass protection that (until this season) rarely broke down and gave all day to throw?  In my humble opinion, this team has been winning the past two seasons with quarterback as the weakest position group on the field, except for the kicking game.

I am cautiously optimistic that Shaw's analysis will be more robust than simply Hogan's win-loss record.

Of course football is a team sports. But win percentage or not, he'll have 30+ games of experience under his belt, career passer rating of more than 140, a better than 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 8+ rushing TDs, etc. He took over the position from a starter with a 7-2 record (yes, behind a dmoninant defense, but still noteworthy) and leapfrogged a recruit who was as highly touted as the player many hear are now clamoring for. He's also played, and won, in some very tough environments. I think Chryst will have to be other-worldly in practice (most likely with the second/string string) and Hogan would have to melt down for Shaw to start weighing Chryst's "potential" against the known commodity which has delivered results. I just don't see it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Hogan apologist (well, perhaps more than many people here), but from what I know of Shaw and what I've seen of Hogan, I really think it's unlikely there will be a change at QB if Hogan chooses to return.

Agreed.  Shaw plays to be respectable, rather than shooting for the stars.