[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=10838.msg101579#msg101579 date=1412903805]
Two caveats to that analysis, CTCard.  The first is that in prior years, Gerhart, Taylor, and Gaffney had to run against defenses that stacked eight in the box on rushing downs.  Now, most defenses are playing us straight up to counter the fact that we are passing more than in the past.

I wouldn't quite call that a caveat. Getting the defense to do something out of it's base, like stacking 8 in the box, can be an end in itself. That is the sort of thing that allowed our deep passing game to be so effective last year. It's part of the point - run enough to suck up the defenses (which are already thinking they should do so for Stanford) then the passing game opens up a lot.

It's also not exactly true. Taylor in 2010, 2011, with Luck in his college-prime, did not see 8 in the box very often.

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What I mean is that while Gaffney gained his yardage against eight-in-the-box formations, the current crop of running backs are gaining their yardage against formations not explicitly trying to stop the run.  As such, those yards ought to be easier to come by than the yards gained by our previous running backs against stacked fronts.

Also, I disagree about Taylor in 2011.  Go back to the 2011 Orange Bowl.  Here's the formation on Jeremy Stewart's first touchdown run:



You can plainly see eight in the box.  And here is the other big run play by Taylor:


That one was against nine in the box.  The reason those two plays stick in my mind is that the announcers noted that because V Tech crammed so many players into the defensive front, once the running back broke through, there weren't any defensive players ahead.  The eight-in-the box defense is also the reason that VTech had so much trouble against the play action pass; they were trying to cover Coby Fleener in man coverage.

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=10838.msg101579#msg101579 date=1412903805]
Two caveats to that analysis, CTCard.  The first is that in prior years, Gerhart, Taylor, and Gaffney had to run against defenses that stacked eight in the box on rushing downs.  Now, most defenses are playing us straight up to counter the fact that we are passing more than in the past.

I wouldn't quite call that a caveat. Getting the defense to do something out of it's base, like stacking 8 in the box, can be an end in itself. That is the sort of thing that allowed our deep passing game to be so effective last year. It's part of the point - run enough to suck up the defenses (which are already thinking they should do so for Stanford) then the passing game opens up a lot.

It's also not exactly true. Taylor in 2010, 2011, with Luck in his college-prime, did not see 8 in the box very often.

[/quote]

What I mean is that while Gaffney gained his yardage against eight-in-the-box formations, the current crop of running backs are gaining their yardage against formations not explicitly trying to stop the run.  As such, those yards ought to be easier to come by than the yards gained by our previous running backs against stacked fronts.

Also, I disagree about Taylor in 2011.  Go back to the 2011 Orange Bowl.  Here's the formation on Jeremy Stewart's first touchdown run:



You can plainly see eight in the box.  And here is the other big run play by Taylor:


That one was against nine in the box.  The reason those two plays stick in my mind is that the announcers noted that because V Tech crammed so many players into the defensive front, once the running back broke through, there weren't any defensive players ahead.  The eight-in-the box defense is also the reason that VTech had so much trouble against the play action pass; they were trying to cover Coby Fleener in man coverage.

BC