09-27-2014, 12:33 PM
WiM--
Nice statistical analysis of outcomes. But it doesn't address the issue properly, IMO.
Start with the premise that most often, the team that is the better of the two gets out to the 2-0 lead. Quite naturally they would be expected to win the vast majority of games in which they had a two goal advantage.
A much more definitive analysis would be "what happens to the course of a match when a team takes a 2-goal lead"? If you want to be all Bayesian about it, what happens to one's priors about the likelihood of either team scoring a goal if one team has scored 2 while conceding none, and is that statistical prediction borne out?
The article gets to that in the "Context of the Match" section - but it relegates it to anecdotal status, rather than actually looking at game sequences.
I've watched enough soccer to realize that taking a 2-0 lead, if the teams are not worlds apart in terms of quality, almost always engenders an extra push of energy by the trailing team, and also a corresponding diminished work-rate from the leader. Heck, I sit behind the team in goal and watch it happen - midfielders aren't as willing to get stuck in on defense or make the long run back against the counter-attack, forwards decide that they don't have to contribute even their normal defensive effort and start to look to add a third.
Yep, the author is right. Most of the time, the team that takes a two-goal lead will not surrender it; they're generally a better side. But the most dangerous PERIOD in a match for that better team is generally the 10 minutes right after the second goal.
That would be an interesting analysis. Something that looks at it as a time sequence, rather than a final score.
Sorry, it's often a sore point for me as a keeper :) - facing the inevitable odd-man rush after my team gets up because my forwards and mids have decided that other people can cover for them, and really, if we only give up 1, we're still in the lead. Had it happen in a game last week; up 2-0 at half, my team relaxed and gave up two quick ones after half, turning what should have been an easy win into a 4-3 nailbiter.
VG
Nice statistical analysis of outcomes. But it doesn't address the issue properly, IMO.
Start with the premise that most often, the team that is the better of the two gets out to the 2-0 lead. Quite naturally they would be expected to win the vast majority of games in which they had a two goal advantage.
A much more definitive analysis would be "what happens to the course of a match when a team takes a 2-goal lead"? If you want to be all Bayesian about it, what happens to one's priors about the likelihood of either team scoring a goal if one team has scored 2 while conceding none, and is that statistical prediction borne out?
The article gets to that in the "Context of the Match" section - but it relegates it to anecdotal status, rather than actually looking at game sequences.
I've watched enough soccer to realize that taking a 2-0 lead, if the teams are not worlds apart in terms of quality, almost always engenders an extra push of energy by the trailing team, and also a corresponding diminished work-rate from the leader. Heck, I sit behind the team in goal and watch it happen - midfielders aren't as willing to get stuck in on defense or make the long run back against the counter-attack, forwards decide that they don't have to contribute even their normal defensive effort and start to look to add a third.
Yep, the author is right. Most of the time, the team that takes a two-goal lead will not surrender it; they're generally a better side. But the most dangerous PERIOD in a match for that better team is generally the 10 minutes right after the second goal.
That would be an interesting analysis. Something that looks at it as a time sequence, rather than a final score.
Sorry, it's often a sore point for me as a keeper :) - facing the inevitable odd-man rush after my team gets up because my forwards and mids have decided that other people can cover for them, and really, if we only give up 1, we're still in the lead. Had it happen in a game last week; up 2-0 at half, my team relaxed and gave up two quick ones after half, turning what should have been an easy win into a 4-3 nailbiter.
VG