[CTcard]

Stanford admits about 2000-2600 a year and winds up with about 1500-1800 enrollments, dating back to 1970 (or further).  (I only sampled some years, not all that range.)  Instead of figuring a rate with the denominator being the number of applications, consider a rate figured against the number of US high school graduates.  Since 1970, that number has grown from about 2.9M to 3.3M (there was a decrease during the middle of that period with the post-war baby boomers or their children lifting either end of that period).  About 0.052% of US high school graduates got into Stanford in 1970.  About 0.046% of that group got into Stanford in 2013.  So, the chances of your children getting in is  only about 8% worse than your chances were (given only the criteria that they were a US high school graduate).

I basically agree, but I am biased as I wrote basically the same argument.

But, a comment.
It is not clear that the total number of high school graduates is necessarily a relevant denominator for the "how difficult to get in" question at the most selective private universities, as the average student (for example) simply does not have a chance. It would be something like the number of students within X range of the top 0.05% of students. While there is no way to know that, I recall but cannot find some research claiming that the wings of the achievement curve of American high school students has been building at the expense of the center. That might lead to more students qualified for a top school.

Of course you should be skeptical of that "research" result, because it is only from my memory and I probably remember it more because it matches my preconceived notions more than for being a solid study.

And a question.
Which link has the HS graduation numbers going way back? I only saw back to 1996-7, but probably didn't look hard enough.
My impression is that the largest cohort of 18 year old Americans was towards the latter Baby Boom (born circa 1960, reached 18 circa 1978), but of course hs grad rates may have changed a bit as well.

[CTcard]

Stanford admits about 2000-2600 a year and winds up with about 1500-1800 enrollments, dating back to 1970 (or further).  (I only sampled some years, not all that range.)  Instead of figuring a rate with the denominator being the number of applications, consider a rate figured against the number of US high school graduates.  Since 1970, that number has grown from about 2.9M to 3.3M (there was a decrease during the middle of that period with the post-war baby boomers or their children lifting either end of that period).  About 0.052% of US high school graduates got into Stanford in 1970.  About 0.046% of that group got into Stanford in 2013.  So, the chances of your children getting in is  only about 8% worse than your chances were (given only the criteria that they were a US high school graduate).

I basically agree, but I am biased as I wrote basically the same argument.

But, a comment.
It is not clear that the total number of high school graduates is necessarily a relevant denominator for the "how difficult to get in" question at the most selective private universities, as the average student (for example) simply does not have a chance. It would be something like the number of students within X range of the top 0.05% of students. While there is no way to know that, I recall but cannot find some research claiming that the wings of the achievement curve of American high school students has been building at the expense of the center. That might lead to more students qualified for a top school.

Of course you should be skeptical of that "research" result, because it is only from my memory and I probably remember it more because it matches my preconceived notions more than for being a solid study.

And a question.
Which link has the HS graduation numbers going way back? I only saw back to 1996-7, but probably didn't look hard enough.
My impression is that the largest cohort of 18 year old Americans was towards the latter Baby Boom (born circa 1960, reached 18 circa 1978), but of course hs grad rates may have changed a bit as well.