12-17-2013, 08:58 AM
The other thing I love is the obsession with the losses to SC and Utah. But both games look different in context when assessed with performance:
SC, of course: fired K. And it's hard to lump a team with Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Leonard Williams, etc. in with the normal "WELL IT'S AN UNRANKED TEAM" spiel. (Of course the computers love SC, so... Sagarin: 18; F/+: 12; ESPN FPI: 16; The Power Rank: 20...).
Utah: Stanford outgained Utah by 1.3 yards per play and scored a special teams TD. It's very hard to lose when you do this! But Stanford lost all fumbles, plus missed a field goal, plus botched a redzone opportunity, plus its defense was unable to adjust to Utah's spread outleveraging it on the outside.
Looking at these games, it's hard to see how MSU can take the blueprint of these losses and transfer the building over. It's not just some prefab modular, you know. Unless MSU's got two exceptional future first-rounders at WR, for example, or a willingness to switch completely over to the spread, the losses really aren't terribly relevant to the Stanford/MSU matchup.
That said, it's quite easy to envision an MSU win. They've got a good defense and Hogan tends to be erratic. MSU can absolutely win a low-scoring game. I just don't see them putting up a ton of points -- aside from Langford, I don't see a lot on offense to threaten Stanford, or that's better than what they've seen on a regular basis in the Pac-12.
SC, of course: fired K. And it's hard to lump a team with Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Leonard Williams, etc. in with the normal "WELL IT'S AN UNRANKED TEAM" spiel. (Of course the computers love SC, so... Sagarin: 18; F/+: 12; ESPN FPI: 16; The Power Rank: 20...).
Utah: Stanford outgained Utah by 1.3 yards per play and scored a special teams TD. It's very hard to lose when you do this! But Stanford lost all fumbles, plus missed a field goal, plus botched a redzone opportunity, plus its defense was unable to adjust to Utah's spread outleveraging it on the outside.
Looking at these games, it's hard to see how MSU can take the blueprint of these losses and transfer the building over. It's not just some prefab modular, you know. Unless MSU's got two exceptional future first-rounders at WR, for example, or a willingness to switch completely over to the spread, the losses really aren't terribly relevant to the Stanford/MSU matchup.
That said, it's quite easy to envision an MSU win. They've got a good defense and Hogan tends to be erratic. MSU can absolutely win a low-scoring game. I just don't see them putting up a ton of points -- aside from Langford, I don't see a lot on offense to threaten Stanford, or that's better than what they've seen on a regular basis in the Pac-12.