[M T]

Another good write-up 81!

Team Stats

--In specialty stats, UGA is: +347 in points off TOs, +297 in paint points and +249 in bench points

Regarding the specialty stats, I don't see them at the Stanford site nor at the Georgia site.  Here's what I have.

Team	FG	FGA	3Pt	3PtA	FT	FTA	OR	DR	PF	TP	A	TO	Blk	S	PiP	PoT	2nd	FBP	Bench
Stanford	945	2067	183	571	406	565	448	1032	460	2479	494	418	185	207	1090	415	430	157	506
Opp	671	2129	135	578	332	471	476	739	516	1809	298	428	68	203	708	356	317	119	473
Diff	274	-62	48	-7	74	94	-28	293	-56	670	196	-10	117	4	382	59	113	38	33
Georgia	827	2062	153	546	390	582	512	839	509	2197	476	467	105	365	1035	0	0	317	0
GA opp	662	1823	162	550	275	433	402	815	524	1761	385	671	107	228	738	0	0	0	0
GA diff	165	239	-9	-4	115	149	110	24	-15	436	91	-204	-2	137	297	347	0	0	249

Point distribution per game:
Stanford:  FT: 11.6  3PT: 15.7  Paint: 31.1  2PT outside the paint: 12.4  Total: 70.8
Georgia:    FT: 11.1  3PT: 13.9  Paint: 31.4  2PT outside the paint: 10.2    Total: 66.6

Obviously our normal advantages are in FG (ie, FG%), 3 pointers (3PT%), def. reb., total points, assists, blocks, points in the paint, second chance points (we don't always get ORs, but when we do, we prefer putbacks).

Their strengths are getting more shots than their opponents (and a higher FG% than the opponents), more free throw attempts (ie, more fouls commited against them, like C.al), offensive rebounds (directly against our DR strength), causing turn overs, steals, points in the paint, points off turnovers (they get 1.5 points off each turnover, it appears), and bench points.

The FG% of the team without Hassell or Armstrong is 38%.  Respectable.  (Stanford minus Chiney is 41.5%)

There seems to be two aspects of their game that dominate the stats.  Steals/turnovers & offensive rebounds.  The other one is FTA/opponent PF, meaning they draw lots of fouls as they shoot.

I'm surprised they didn't list fast break points.  That may mean that the turnovers they get are not out on the perimeter, but more internal.  1/2 of the turnovers are steals. Turnovers lead to more FGA, and thus more FG.  If some of these are fast breaks, and some are transition baskets, that may help explain a somewhat higher FG% for the team.

With 200 extra turnovers (leading to 347 PoT) and 100 extra offensive rebounds, I'm surprised that they  have ONLY 300 extra points in the paint.  That's beginning to sound like maybe they don't get many transition points.  Or else their forwards are not that dominant.  (Look at Stanford stats and you see nothing that contributes to PIP.  Take away all the 2nd chance points, and we still are +269 for PiP.  The majority of all that is on the credit sheet of one player on her first shot.  Stanford gets 1090 PiP + 406 FT + 549 points from 3PTs = 2045.  So the total scoring from jumpers outside the paint but inside the 3PT line is 2479-2045 = 434 = 12.4/game)


Georgia gets an extra 204 possessions from TO and an extra 100 or so possessions from the total rebound difference, for about 300 extra possessions.  But they only get an extra 240 FGA.  I suppose most of the other possesssions (20%) wind up with free throws.  That's a high percentage.  Corroborating evidence is that they fouls are even between Georgia and their opponents, but Georgia gets 20% more FTAs.  I suspect a lot of fouls against them are in the act of shooting (which, by the way, raises their FG% since the ones that go in count and the ones that don't, don't).

My impression is that the NCAA tourney is being called with few common fouls on the floor and a moderate (but not as much as in the regular season) set of shooting fouls.  If a team can cause you to foul while they are shooting, they'll probably get more fouls called against the other team during the tourney.  I believe that Chiney & Amber are our two players that can get those calls.  But maybe Georgia has more players that get those calls.  But if our defenders can play without fouling on drives to the basket, then we can take away that advantage for Georgia.


My guess

Just based on the stats and my knowledge of Stanford,

• I'm not worried about the offense or defense of their forwards.  If they put the two 6'+ girls on Chiney, then Jos and Mikaela should have a field day, if they can get passes.  If they don't double Chiney, then Chiney will shine. 
  
• I hope we can mostly manage our fouls, but that depends on refs and small things.  We've managed fouls all year.
  
• I'm most worried about Georgia disrupting our perimeter players from passing the ball between themselves & into the bigs.  Again, bringing Chiney out should help on that.  But our making/receiving passes as though no one is playing defense has been a weakness, IMO. 
  

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Amber will be challenged in this game.  I think defending our perimeter players full time will be a focus, and that will result in difficulties getting the ball inside or even getting threes off.  Bonnie will get some threes.  I hope Jos can get some.

But mainly, Stanford perimeter players are going to have to work hard to get passes inside.  We'll be doing a lot of picks.  I expect Amber will have to bring her A game of cutting around a high pick and toward the basket.

If we get the ball inside, Chiney should be fine or else someone else is open.  Mikaela and Jos need to keep the ball high as they may have 4" on their defender, but the defender is quick.

Although I've thought about it less, I think our defense can handle Georgia.  In the last month, Miss St beat them 50-38 and Kentucky beat them 60-38.  In those games Georgia was not in foul trouble.  In one, Hassell got 17 points.  In the other one player got as many as 10.  In both games, Georgia had about 17 TO.  Kentucky had 13 TO while Miss St had 18 TO.  In the Kentucky game, Georgia shot 22%.  In the other, they shot 18.2% (down 2 at the half, half their shots in the second half were threes, all 16 of which missed).

I expect Stanford to shut down their offense similarly.

I will be comfortable with a score of Stanford 62, Georgia 48  (but I anticipate something more like 70-40)

(Griffin78: I was not the first one here to suggest bringing Chiney out from the basket.) 

[M T]

Another good write-up 81!

Team Stats

--In specialty stats, UGA is: +347 in points off TOs, +297 in paint points and +249 in bench points

Regarding the specialty stats, I don't see them at the Stanford site nor at the Georgia site.  Here's what I have.

Team	FG	FGA	3Pt	3PtA	FT	FTA	OR	DR	PF	TP	A	TO	Blk	S	PiP	PoT	2nd	FBP	Bench
Stanford	945	2067	183	571	406	565	448	1032	460	2479	494	418	185	207	1090	415	430	157	506
Opp	671	2129	135	578	332	471	476	739	516	1809	298	428	68	203	708	356	317	119	473
Diff	274	-62	48	-7	74	94	-28	293	-56	670	196	-10	117	4	382	59	113	38	33
Georgia	827	2062	153	546	390	582	512	839	509	2197	476	467	105	365	1035	0	0	317	0
GA opp	662	1823	162	550	275	433	402	815	524	1761	385	671	107	228	738	0	0	0	0
GA diff	165	239	-9	-4	115	149	110	24	-15	436	91	-204	-2	137	297	347	0	0	249

Point distribution per game:
Stanford:  FT: 11.6  3PT: 15.7  Paint: 31.1  2PT outside the paint: 12.4  Total: 70.8
Georgia:    FT: 11.1  3PT: 13.9  Paint: 31.4  2PT outside the paint: 10.2    Total: 66.6

Obviously our normal advantages are in FG (ie, FG%), 3 pointers (3PT%), def. reb., total points, assists, blocks, points in the paint, second chance points (we don't always get ORs, but when we do, we prefer putbacks).

Their strengths are getting more shots than their opponents (and a higher FG% than the opponents), more free throw attempts (ie, more fouls commited against them, like C.al), offensive rebounds (directly against our DR strength), causing turn overs, steals, points in the paint, points off turnovers (they get 1.5 points off each turnover, it appears), and bench points.

The FG% of the team without Hassell or Armstrong is 38%.  Respectable.  (Stanford minus Chiney is 41.5%)

There seems to be two aspects of their game that dominate the stats.  Steals/turnovers & offensive rebounds.  The other one is FTA/opponent PF, meaning they draw lots of fouls as they shoot.

I'm surprised they didn't list fast break points.  That may mean that the turnovers they get are not out on the perimeter, but more internal.  1/2 of the turnovers are steals. Turnovers lead to more FGA, and thus more FG.  If some of these are fast breaks, and some are transition baskets, that may help explain a somewhat higher FG% for the team.

With 200 extra turnovers (leading to 347 PoT) and 100 extra offensive rebounds, I'm surprised that they  have ONLY 300 extra points in the paint.  That's beginning to sound like maybe they don't get many transition points.  Or else their forwards are not that dominant.  (Look at Stanford stats and you see nothing that contributes to PIP.  Take away all the 2nd chance points, and we still are +269 for PiP.  The majority of all that is on the credit sheet of one player on her first shot.  Stanford gets 1090 PiP + 406 FT + 549 points from 3PTs = 2045.  So the total scoring from jumpers outside the paint but inside the 3PT line is 2479-2045 = 434 = 12.4/game)


Georgia gets an extra 204 possessions from TO and an extra 100 or so possessions from the total rebound difference, for about 300 extra possessions.  But they only get an extra 240 FGA.  I suppose most of the other possesssions (20%) wind up with free throws.  That's a high percentage.  Corroborating evidence is that they fouls are even between Georgia and their opponents, but Georgia gets 20% more FTAs.  I suspect a lot of fouls against them are in the act of shooting (which, by the way, raises their FG% since the ones that go in count and the ones that don't, don't).

My impression is that the NCAA tourney is being called with few common fouls on the floor and a moderate (but not as much as in the regular season) set of shooting fouls.  If a team can cause you to foul while they are shooting, they'll probably get more fouls called against the other team during the tourney.  I believe that Chiney & Amber are our two players that can get those calls.  But maybe Georgia has more players that get those calls.  But if our defenders can play without fouling on drives to the basket, then we can take away that advantage for Georgia.


My guess

Just based on the stats and my knowledge of Stanford,

• I'm not worried about the offense or defense of their forwards.  If they put the two 6'+ girls on Chiney, then Jos and Mikaela should have a field day, if they can get passes.  If they don't double Chiney, then Chiney will shine. 
  
• I hope we can mostly manage our fouls, but that depends on refs and small things.  We've managed fouls all year.
  
• I'm most worried about Georgia disrupting our perimeter players from passing the ball between themselves & into the bigs.  Again, bringing Chiney out should help on that.  But our making/receiving passes as though no one is playing defense has been a weakness, IMO. 
  

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Amber will be challenged in this game.  I think defending our perimeter players full time will be a focus, and that will result in difficulties getting the ball inside or even getting threes off.  Bonnie will get some threes.  I hope Jos can get some.

But mainly, Stanford perimeter players are going to have to work hard to get passes inside.  We'll be doing a lot of picks.  I expect Amber will have to bring her A game of cutting around a high pick and toward the basket.

If we get the ball inside, Chiney should be fine or else someone else is open.  Mikaela and Jos need to keep the ball high as they may have 4" on their defender, but the defender is quick.

Although I've thought about it less, I think our defense can handle Georgia.  In the last month, Miss St beat them 50-38 and Kentucky beat them 60-38.  In those games Georgia was not in foul trouble.  In one, Hassell got 17 points.  In the other one player got as many as 10.  In both games, Georgia had about 17 TO.  Kentucky had 13 TO while Miss St had 18 TO.  In the Kentucky game, Georgia shot 22%.  In the other, they shot 18.2% (down 2 at the half, half their shots in the second half were threes, all 16 of which missed).

I expect Stanford to shut down their offense similarly.

I will be comfortable with a score of Stanford 62, Georgia 48  (but I anticipate something more like 70-40)

(Griffin78: I was not the first one here to suggest bringing Chiney out from the basket.)