8 hours ago
5. The worst part about this game was, of course, the pass defense. It takes the cake from last year's Virginia game and 2022 USC as the least resistance we've put up to a passing attack in modern times. It's a little bit less of an outlier for Miami as they utterly dominate in the air about once a year. Also bad was our own passing efficiency (avoiding sacks and other aspects of QB play redeemed Warren's game), with only three worse passing efficiency performances last year (though one of them was Miami). Miami had four more dominant pass defense games last year, so part of this is the enemy gets a vote. The run game on both sides of the ball was far better, I would say straight-up good. On our side of the ball, 78 rushing yards may not sound like a lot, but we had 8-9 worse rushing games last year, including the Miami game, and Miami held 11 opponents to fewer yards per carry last year. Some of this statistical respectablity was one big chunk run by Irvin early and some success in garbage time. In any case, this was an encouraging subplot for a beleaguered offensive line against a mobbin' defense. Our run defense also looked good, middling compared to our run defense games last year (and most teams weren't Miami and Fletcher), three quarters of a yard per carry better than we did against Miami last year, and better than ten teams did against Miami last year. In short, our game plan to be competitive in the run game worked, it just didn't work big picture because of the obvious (the back-breaking Mensah-Toney connection) and because we kept letting Miami extend drives. Getting dominated on third downs to the tune of eight conversions on 11 tries is hard to overcome. The holding penalties in pass protection also made clear that, while we technically avoided many sacks, this was a mismatch up front.
6. The guy avoiding those sacks, by hook or by crook (one sack through two games not on any of our bingo cards) and making good ball-protecting decisions (no turnovers again), is the story of our young season so far. Warren's first two games at Stanford have each had a better Total QBR than any Stanford QB game last year and he has already surpassed Daniels' 2024 70+ Total QBR games and matched Daniels' 2023 in that regard. Evidence is mounting that we have our best QB since at least McKee. Many of us, certainly including me, lamented not getting a more touted QB in the portal. Well, Warren may teach us this year that sometimes it's cool to floss but don't buy an eighty-five thousand dollar car before you buy a house. His brand of competence may be exactly what we need out of a transitional/building year star player.
7. Reflected in Total QBR but not in more dumb stats is that an astonishing 17.3 percent of Warren's on-target passes in the first two games have been dropped. If that were to persist over the course of a full season it would be the most drops a Power Four QB has been saddled with since Colorado's JT Shrout in 2022. Among 126 qualifying receiver targets nationally so far this year, PFF's drops grade has Blackburn 96th (perhaps no chance to redeem for a while given yesterday's injury), Robinson 109th, and Hall dead last 126th. Unacceptable. Cue yesterday's best news, the return of Caden High. High dominated in his mere quarter of action. I love the way he grooves when he moves, in this game getting first downs on 86 percent of his targets and accounting for over half of our non-garbage first downs despite being only WR4 in snaps yesterday as we eased him back in. Last year CJ Williams had this many first downs in a game twice (one of which had 18 targets) and High did it once. It's a wonderful sign going forward that High is back and so evidently has excellent chemistry with Warren. Less happy yesterday was that Ford didn't get a first down until garbage time and that Blackburn looks like he will be out. Still, Warren to High appears to be the best thing we have going for us this year. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: High (6), Blackburn (2), Ford (2), Irvin, Robinson, Onovughe, Marcus Brown, Holt] The patchwork OL, at least according to initial PFF grades, appeared to be subpar but serviceable with the exception of Anderson (our top performer in the opener) getting roasted just like he did against Miami last year.
8. You don't need me to tell you Malachi Toney ate yesterday. While I'm not sure Toney will ever top that game, his not so lightweight flamboastin' striking the Voldemort pose multiple times is a taste of what he'll wreak on the ACC all year. Rose, who struggled in coverage in the opener, was our only defender to cover a Toney target and not give up a first down. Bryant gave up two touchdowns yet his 14 yards per target allowed looks fine compared to chunk plays given up by Davis, McAllister, and Mattingly (the first two of whom may have hurt themselves trying to cover #1?) the only times they got the unfair assignment. When everybody fails like this I give credit to the receiver - Toney ran through our DBs and LBs like Metamucil - and put most blame on the scheme, though one of this board's wise resident former Division I DBs told me I shouldn't let the individuals off the hook either. Pritchard blamed the failures on lack of leverage (clear) and not swarming to Toney after the catch (we weren't even close so I wonder how realistic this is as a solution). Failures aside, in terms of individual play, Rose, Nicholson, Briehler, Cooper, Galvan, Tafiti, Marceau-Olayinka, Bryant, and Mattingly had multiple positive box score plays but the latter four needed garbage time and PFF nuked Galvan. Rose led the way by far with eight such plays. Nicholson continues to quietly be good, though it's fair in retrospect to ask why he was the only guy not asked to help with #1. I'm encouraged by signs so far that Briehler and Bachhuber are on schedule.
9. This game could have been uglier were it not for a good special teams game. Flintoft had net punts of 49 to the 23 (excellent), 45 to the 33 (very good), 48 to the 11 (excellent), 44 to the 35 (very good), 39 to the 13 after the illegal touching (good), 40 to the 40 (mediocre), 40 to the 37 (mediocre). Toney getting return opportunities? Nope. Fair catches? Yup. Kenney made his only field goal attempts, chip shots of 30 and 24 yards. The special teams low point was Davis' kick returns giving up five yards and nine yards compared to fair catches and only getting a 20 yard return to the 31 after an unnecessary roughness penalty. Mattingly, Jernegan, Johnson, and Edwards had coverage tackles. Positive phase of the game for us relative to the other phases.
10. 40 Water game balls: Caden High, Matt Rose, Aidan Flintoft, Brian Lindgren
11. The bye is unusually well placed for an early season week off as we need to get healthier and this is the perfect time. The most crucial stretch of our season happens to come right after the bye, with three winnable but challenging games. This season still feels like an important window of opportunity to show we're moving forward, have hope, and can take advantage of the retention Luck and Fisher negotiated. Constantly reading about other teams' executive deals online, we've got a limited amount of time. Everybody is chasing these dollar signs, we've got to stay on our grind. We just want help, don't need the whole plate. But anything positive out of this season likely requires coming out of the bye ready to get a win or two out of the Duke-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest stretch. We've seen the team play an opponent we outmatch and an opponent that outmatches us, now let's see some true tests.
6. The guy avoiding those sacks, by hook or by crook (one sack through two games not on any of our bingo cards) and making good ball-protecting decisions (no turnovers again), is the story of our young season so far. Warren's first two games at Stanford have each had a better Total QBR than any Stanford QB game last year and he has already surpassed Daniels' 2024 70+ Total QBR games and matched Daniels' 2023 in that regard. Evidence is mounting that we have our best QB since at least McKee. Many of us, certainly including me, lamented not getting a more touted QB in the portal. Well, Warren may teach us this year that sometimes it's cool to floss but don't buy an eighty-five thousand dollar car before you buy a house. His brand of competence may be exactly what we need out of a transitional/building year star player.
7. Reflected in Total QBR but not in more dumb stats is that an astonishing 17.3 percent of Warren's on-target passes in the first two games have been dropped. If that were to persist over the course of a full season it would be the most drops a Power Four QB has been saddled with since Colorado's JT Shrout in 2022. Among 126 qualifying receiver targets nationally so far this year, PFF's drops grade has Blackburn 96th (perhaps no chance to redeem for a while given yesterday's injury), Robinson 109th, and Hall dead last 126th. Unacceptable. Cue yesterday's best news, the return of Caden High. High dominated in his mere quarter of action. I love the way he grooves when he moves, in this game getting first downs on 86 percent of his targets and accounting for over half of our non-garbage first downs despite being only WR4 in snaps yesterday as we eased him back in. Last year CJ Williams had this many first downs in a game twice (one of which had 18 targets) and High did it once. It's a wonderful sign going forward that High is back and so evidently has excellent chemistry with Warren. Less happy yesterday was that Ford didn't get a first down until garbage time and that Blackburn looks like he will be out. Still, Warren to High appears to be the best thing we have going for us this year. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: High (6), Blackburn (2), Ford (2), Irvin, Robinson, Onovughe, Marcus Brown, Holt] The patchwork OL, at least according to initial PFF grades, appeared to be subpar but serviceable with the exception of Anderson (our top performer in the opener) getting roasted just like he did against Miami last year.
8. You don't need me to tell you Malachi Toney ate yesterday. While I'm not sure Toney will ever top that game, his not so lightweight flamboastin' striking the Voldemort pose multiple times is a taste of what he'll wreak on the ACC all year. Rose, who struggled in coverage in the opener, was our only defender to cover a Toney target and not give up a first down. Bryant gave up two touchdowns yet his 14 yards per target allowed looks fine compared to chunk plays given up by Davis, McAllister, and Mattingly (the first two of whom may have hurt themselves trying to cover #1?) the only times they got the unfair assignment. When everybody fails like this I give credit to the receiver - Toney ran through our DBs and LBs like Metamucil - and put most blame on the scheme, though one of this board's wise resident former Division I DBs told me I shouldn't let the individuals off the hook either. Pritchard blamed the failures on lack of leverage (clear) and not swarming to Toney after the catch (we weren't even close so I wonder how realistic this is as a solution). Failures aside, in terms of individual play, Rose, Nicholson, Briehler, Cooper, Galvan, Tafiti, Marceau-Olayinka, Bryant, and Mattingly had multiple positive box score plays but the latter four needed garbage time and PFF nuked Galvan. Rose led the way by far with eight such plays. Nicholson continues to quietly be good, though it's fair in retrospect to ask why he was the only guy not asked to help with #1. I'm encouraged by signs so far that Briehler and Bachhuber are on schedule.
9. This game could have been uglier were it not for a good special teams game. Flintoft had net punts of 49 to the 23 (excellent), 45 to the 33 (very good), 48 to the 11 (excellent), 44 to the 35 (very good), 39 to the 13 after the illegal touching (good), 40 to the 40 (mediocre), 40 to the 37 (mediocre). Toney getting return opportunities? Nope. Fair catches? Yup. Kenney made his only field goal attempts, chip shots of 30 and 24 yards. The special teams low point was Davis' kick returns giving up five yards and nine yards compared to fair catches and only getting a 20 yard return to the 31 after an unnecessary roughness penalty. Mattingly, Jernegan, Johnson, and Edwards had coverage tackles. Positive phase of the game for us relative to the other phases.
10. 40 Water game balls: Caden High, Matt Rose, Aidan Flintoft, Brian Lindgren
11. The bye is unusually well placed for an early season week off as we need to get healthier and this is the perfect time. The most crucial stretch of our season happens to come right after the bye, with three winnable but challenging games. This season still feels like an important window of opportunity to show we're moving forward, have hope, and can take advantage of the retention Luck and Fisher negotiated. Constantly reading about other teams' executive deals online, we've got a limited amount of time. Everybody is chasing these dollar signs, we've got to stay on our grind. We just want help, don't need the whole plate. But anything positive out of this season likely requires coming out of the bye ready to get a win or two out of the Duke-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest stretch. We've seen the team play an opponent we outmatch and an opponent that outmatches us, now let's see some true tests.