[jacket3ree]

I spent part of today looking at NEXRAD with a meteorologist to figure out that some 2023 rainfall in Ventura County was literally off the charts. Do we believe this? The super bright (intense) radar split the ground-based rain gage uprights. Suffice to say that BC is correct. One can extrapolate AEP (or the inverse, return period) from hardly any data at all. Depending on the distribution assumed, 3rd order moments (like skew) can drive the frequency curve and things like skew can be driven by outliers, so knowing how to treat those, and look at confidence limits (for the 0.00025 AEP event your 95% CI starts to diverge like crazy with the amount of real-world data available). All I know is that we are still helping litigate flood events from 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 (NYE), and 2023 around the state so nothing is once in forever, especially if your house is wrecked.

[jacket3ree]

I spent part of today looking at NEXRAD with a meteorologist to figure out that some 2023 rainfall in Ventura County was literally off the charts. Do we believe this? The super bright (intense) radar split the ground-based rain gage uprights. Suffice to say that BC is correct. One can extrapolate AEP (or the inverse, return period) from hardly any data at all. Depending on the distribution assumed, 3rd order moments (like skew) can drive the frequency curve and things like skew can be driven by outliers, so knowing how to treat those, and look at confidence limits (for the 0.00025 AEP event your 95% CI starts to diverge like crazy with the amount of real-world data available). All I know is that we are still helping litigate flood events from 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 (NYE), and 2023 around the state so nothing is once in forever, especially if your house is wrecked.