[Goose]

One, I agree with Matt that it is the most likely outcome, but agree with you that it is not inevitable.  There are lots of politically connected state universities outside of the BigTen/SEC footprint, and even within the footprint (but left on the outside looking in).  That renders the trajectory of this very unpredictable.  But I still think the most likely outcome is that football becomes a two-league world.

BC

I don't disagree that a two league world is a probable outcome. However, the character of that outcome can vary. First, the players being employees is not necessarily what the powers-that-be want. A CBA does make some kinds of agreements "legal" that would otherwise be anti-trust violations. The powers would like that. OTOH they have to reach an agreement that the players will accept, and many things the powers want I strongly suspect the players will oppose. The players may like yearly free-agency for example.
 
There are also many tensions between this solution and the academic purpose of a University. Would the players still have to be enrolled in the University? If not, doesn't the Athletic Department simply become an independent but state-owned minor league franchise? Is that even legal in every jurisdiction involved? Why would it be tax-exempt? Where would the profits go and where would the liabilities reside?  Who owns the stadium? Is it owned by the University and leased out to the teams involved? Getting every SEC/Big10 school on the same page regarding these issues will not be easy I suspect, and the University administrators probably won't much like the process either. IMO the end state can be a whole lot of different possibilities, many of which are more like the status-quo than the alternative of employees with a CBA working for independent businesses.

[Goose]

One, I agree with Matt that it is the most likely outcome, but agree with you that it is not inevitable.  There are lots of politically connected state universities outside of the BigTen/SEC footprint, and even within the footprint (but left on the outside looking in).  That renders the trajectory of this very unpredictable.  But I still think the most likely outcome is that football becomes a two-league world.

BC

I don't disagree that a two league world is a probable outcome. However, the character of that outcome can vary. First, the players being employees is not necessarily what the powers-that-be want. A CBA does make some kinds of agreements "legal" that would otherwise be anti-trust violations. The powers would like that. OTOH they have to reach an agreement that the players will accept, and many things the powers want I strongly suspect the players will oppose. The players may like yearly free-agency for example.
 
There are also many tensions between this solution and the academic purpose of a University. Would the players still have to be enrolled in the University? If not, doesn't the Athletic Department simply become an independent but state-owned minor league franchise? Is that even legal in every jurisdiction involved? Why would it be tax-exempt? Where would the profits go and where would the liabilities reside?  Who owns the stadium? Is it owned by the University and leased out to the teams involved? Getting every SEC/Big10 school on the same page regarding these issues will not be easy I suspect, and the University administrators probably won't much like the process either. IMO the end state can be a whole lot of different possibilities, many of which are more like the status-quo than the alternative of employees with a CBA working for independent businesses.