[Mick]

As we approach the 4th anniversary, I saw this ISW update:
https://understandingwar.org/research/ru...y-21-2026/

I am not sure if this update merely looks at the war through old rose colored glasses, but it's notable that ISW is claiming that Ukraine made advances of late.  I was under the impression that Russia has been on a slow but inexorable march forward for the past 2+ years.

Starlink recently cut off access from black market Russian terminals, and that's thrown quite a wrench into their C3I.

Russia had gone further than C3I functions. They were using counterfeit Starlink terminals in drones as part of the normal weapons system guidance. These drones are now not usable at all. The C3I disruption has definitely played hob with the Russian logistics system and the rapid sharing of drone acquired targeting information. By the time the information reaches Russian artillery, it is obsolete. They are back in the "bad old days" before they adapted to a more modern war requiring a faster targeting cycle. It won't be easy to "fix" this problem.

For the first time, Russia is losing more men by casualty than it can recruit, per The Telegraph. 

They are losing 40,000 men per month and recruiting 35,000 men per month.

Russian soldiers being killed faster than Kremlin can recruit them

This is indeed a serious problem for Putin. Previously the Russians were paying very generous enlistment bonus and salary to recruits. They still are, but it isn't enough. The Russian economy has a very low unemployment rate. This is driven by the war economy, the number of men who have fled the country, and the number of men already in the Russian military. Many men  joined the Russian military for the money and because they had no hope of other employment. Today, jobs are much more plentiful. The article asserts that the potential recruits now realize it is a one-way trip for many. In reality, they always knew that. The fact they have a reasonable alternative is what is killing Russian recruitment. Russia can't afford to raise the compensation to recruit soldiers, and even if it could getting people to accept the "great offer" with a 2.6% civilian unemployment number is going to be a very heavy lift indeed.
 
This situation matters for two reasons. First, not having as many troops reduces the pressure Russia can apply to Ukraine. Ukraine is still heavily outnumbered, but not as bad. Second, and much more importantly, a lack of troops may require conscription of more "ordinary Russians" to serve in combat roles against Ukraine. This will require a "general mobilization". That will be a "big deal" for the Russian public that up to now have faced few immediate consequences due to a war in Ukraine. Putin really, really doesn't want to do that, but if he is forced to do so things could go off the rails for him real fast.

More on how the loss of Starlink affected the battlefield strategies employed by Ukrainians vs. Russian troops.

Ukraine Goes on the Offensive || Peter Zeihan

[Mick]

As we approach the 4th anniversary, I saw this ISW update:
https://understandingwar.org/research/ru...y-21-2026/

I am not sure if this update merely looks at the war through old rose colored glasses, but it's notable that ISW is claiming that Ukraine made advances of late.  I was under the impression that Russia has been on a slow but inexorable march forward for the past 2+ years.

Starlink recently cut off access from black market Russian terminals, and that's thrown quite a wrench into their C3I.

Russia had gone further than C3I functions. They were using counterfeit Starlink terminals in drones as part of the normal weapons system guidance. These drones are now not usable at all. The C3I disruption has definitely played hob with the Russian logistics system and the rapid sharing of drone acquired targeting information. By the time the information reaches Russian artillery, it is obsolete. They are back in the "bad old days" before they adapted to a more modern war requiring a faster targeting cycle. It won't be easy to "fix" this problem.

For the first time, Russia is losing more men by casualty than it can recruit, per The Telegraph. 

They are losing 40,000 men per month and recruiting 35,000 men per month.

Russian soldiers being killed faster than Kremlin can recruit them

This is indeed a serious problem for Putin. Previously the Russians were paying very generous enlistment bonus and salary to recruits. They still are, but it isn't enough. The Russian economy has a very low unemployment rate. This is driven by the war economy, the number of men who have fled the country, and the number of men already in the Russian military. Many men  joined the Russian military for the money and because they had no hope of other employment. Today, jobs are much more plentiful. The article asserts that the potential recruits now realize it is a one-way trip for many. In reality, they always knew that. The fact they have a reasonable alternative is what is killing Russian recruitment. Russia can't afford to raise the compensation to recruit soldiers, and even if it could getting people to accept the "great offer" with a 2.6% civilian unemployment number is going to be a very heavy lift indeed.
 
This situation matters for two reasons. First, not having as many troops reduces the pressure Russia can apply to Ukraine. Ukraine is still heavily outnumbered, but not as bad. Second, and much more importantly, a lack of troops may require conscription of more "ordinary Russians" to serve in combat roles against Ukraine. This will require a "general mobilization". That will be a "big deal" for the Russian public that up to now have faced few immediate consequences due to a war in Ukraine. Putin really, really doesn't want to do that, but if he is forced to do so things could go off the rails for him real fast.

More on how the loss of Starlink affected the battlefield strategies employed by Ukrainians vs. Russian troops.

Ukraine Goes on the Offensive || Peter Zeihan