[dabigv13]

4 years now since the start of Putin's special military operation. March of 2022 I posted this and I think it holds up-

There is no way at this point for Russia to "win", that is accomplish their political objectives of regime change and a puppet Ukraine. Russia doesn't have the troops to defeat and occupy Ukraine. Even if their initial operation to take Kiev and assassinate Zelensky had been a success a la the storming of Tajbeg palace, just like in Afghanistan this would only lead to a festering wound that would continually hurt Russia.

Of course Putin probably can't abide a loss. So end states for the conflict in my mind are three 1) Putin murdered by FSB 2) Ukraine cedes Crimea and Donbas formally, there is some formal neutrality declaration (this probably is not a stable end state) 3) nuclear exchange.

2 definitely the likeliest outcome. But still probably at least another year and likely more of fighting.

[dabigv13]

4 years now since the start of Putin's special military operation. March of 2022 I posted this and I think it holds up-

There is no way at this point for Russia to "win", that is accomplish their political objectives of regime change and a puppet Ukraine. Russia doesn't have the troops to defeat and occupy Ukraine. Even if their initial operation to take Kiev and assassinate Zelensky had been a success a la the storming of Tajbeg palace, just like in Afghanistan this would only lead to a festering wound that would continually hurt Russia.

Of course Putin probably can't abide a loss. So end states for the conflict in my mind are three 1) Putin murdered by FSB 2) Ukraine cedes Crimea and Donbas formally, there is some formal neutrality declaration (this probably is not a stable end state) 3) nuclear exchange.

2 definitely the likeliest outcome. But still probably at least another year and likely more of fighting.