12-25-2012, 03:17 AM
Sseason stats, year to year, for the two teams. UConn has a big advantage in 2pt% (with possible correlation to the big advantage in assists) and in steals, with small advantage in OR.
Returning Player (plus the new starter), Year-to-Year
UConn's closest game was 15 points. The ranked teams they played are at Texas A&M (81-50, now 8-4, #24), (neutral) Purdue (91-57, now 11-1, #11), Maryland (63-48, now 8-2, #9), Penn State (67-52, now 10-2, #10). (Stanford played (neutral) Baylor (71-69, now 9-1, #3), So. Carolina (53-49, now 11-1, #19), Tenn (63-50, now 7-3, #13)
Earlier in the season, I watched Stefanie Dolson's play. My opinion is she hasn't improved much (note the stats). Possibly she's improved in dishing the ball. I thought her shooting from the free throw line area has improved, but it doesn't show in the stats. Often she's the last one down the court on either defense or offense. If it is a quick basket at the other end (whichever end), she's then in position quickly. (So, beware of quick three point attempts.) While she seems lazy at getting up and down the court, she plays hard when she's at the right end, but she tends to camp in the lane. I saw several times she should have been called for 3 (or even 5) seconds in the paint.  On offense, it might be a good strategy to get Chiney & Jos into the lane for rebounding quickly and go for a quick shot (a drive by Toni?) before Dolson has gotten down court. When Dolson starts hustling down, then don't try it. The idea is to try to wear Dolson down.
Mosqueda-Lewis, who hurt us so much, has really improved.
UConn seems to have more depth. This year, 5 players are averaging 23-28 minutes; 4 players 15-20 minutes; 1 player at 12 minutes. Stanford has 3 players 28-32 minutes; 3 at 18-23 minutes; 3 at 10-14 minutes.
Sagarin predictors (rpiratings.com) indicate a very close game, with Stanford given the edge by 1.6 pts (Rating), after including the home advantage of 3.9 pts. UConn leads in the Predictor, which is more based on points. It does seem like UConn is happy to run up the score
But, if you want to feel good, realtimerpi.com (which seems rather crazy in their rankings & predictions), predicts a 24 point win for Stanford, and predicts it is UConn's only loss (beating Baylor 82-54 in CT). (They predict closer wins across the bay and in Westwood. They predict two future games for UConn to be 119-54 and 89-6 !).
I'd feel better if we can get really good fan involvement Saturday and try to push that home advantage up a few more points.
My defensive line-up would be 6'3" Chiney on 6'4" Stewart, 5'7" Amber on 5'7" Hartley, 5'11" Toni on 6'0" Mosqueda-Lewis, possibly 6'3" Jos on 5'11" Faris, 6'3" Ruef/Greenfield on 6'5" Dolson.
Alternative:Â Chiney on Mosqueda-Lewis, Jos on Stewart, Toni on Faris, Amber on Hartley, Reuf/Greenfield on Dolson.
| St2012 | St2013 | [size=8pt]Ct2012 | CT2013 | ||
| Score | [size=8pt]76-55 | 76-52 | 76-47 | 88-43 | |
| 2pt% | 51% | 56% | 54% | 61% | (2pt%, not FG%) |
| 3pt% | 32% | 35% | 34% | 35% | |
| FT% | 76% | 74% | 76% | 73% | |
| 3PtA/FGA | 27% | 24% | 34% | 35% | |
| OR% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 45% | |
| DR% | 69% | 70% | 71% | 71% | |
| A/gm | 16.6 | 14.6 | 18.7 | 22.0 | |
| A/FG | 59% | 49% | 66% | 65% | |
| A/TO | 1.32 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.61 | |
| TO/gm | 12.6 | 12.2 | 15.1 | 13.7 | |
| Stl/gm | 6.6 | 5.5 | 11.3 | 12.2 | |
| Blk/gm | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.7 |
Returning Player (plus the new starter), Year-to-Year
| Min/g | FG% | 3pt% | FT% | Pts/40m | OR/40m | DR/40m | A/40m | A/TO | TO/40m | Stl/40m | Blk/40m | |
| Mosqueda-Lewis | 28.2-27.6 | 43.2-58.1 | 38.4-54.2 | 83.3-87.5 | 21.2-23.9 | 2.46-3.06 | 5.22-4.19 | 2.39-4.03 | 1.14-1.56 | 2.09-2.58 | 1.75-3.23 | 0.75-0.16 |
| Faris | 28.9-26.8 | 43.8-61.4 | 31.5-44.0 | 78.8-76.5 | 9.33-14.03 | 2.66-1.49 | 4.59-3.73 | 6.02-6.27 | 2.12-4.67 | 2.84-1.34 | 2.92-3.88 | 0.77-0.45 |
| Dolson | 23.9-26.2 | 58.6-57.5 | 0.0-16.7 | 81.0-66.7 | 17.5-17.9 | 3.56-3.21 | 6.47-5.95 | 2.90-4.73 | 0.73-1.29 | 4.00-3.66 | 1.41-1.83 | 2.51-1.98 |
| Hartley | 33.2-23.8 | 46.5-50.0 | 33.2-34.6 | 75.6-66.7 | 16.9-17.0 | 0.73-1.47 | 3.97-3.58 | 4.44-6.32 | 1.43-3.00 | 3.11-2.11 | 2.22-3.58 | 0.1-0.21 |
| Stewart | -23.2 | -59.8 | -38.5 | -83.8 | -29.14 | -4.48 | -7.93 | -1.90 | -0.73 | -2.59 | -2.07 | -2.76 |
| Banks | 12.3-19.6 | 50.5-58.7 | 12.5-48.1 | 70.4-70.6 | 11.6-16.5m | 0.51-0.61 | 3.05-3.47 | 3.26-4.29 | 1.03-1.91 | 3.16-2.24 | 2.54-2.86 | 0.31-0.41 |
| Doty | 20.6-16.3 | 35.5-41.0 | 33.3-39.3 | 73.1-0.0 | 9.63-10.55 | 1.05-0.74 | 3.14-3.44 | 3.72-5.15 | 1.51-1.31 | 2.46-3.93 | 2.46-1.23 | 0.37-0.25 |
UConn's closest game was 15 points. The ranked teams they played are at Texas A&M (81-50, now 8-4, #24), (neutral) Purdue (91-57, now 11-1, #11), Maryland (63-48, now 8-2, #9), Penn State (67-52, now 10-2, #10). (Stanford played (neutral) Baylor (71-69, now 9-1, #3), So. Carolina (53-49, now 11-1, #19), Tenn (63-50, now 7-3, #13)
Earlier in the season, I watched Stefanie Dolson's play. My opinion is she hasn't improved much (note the stats). Possibly she's improved in dishing the ball. I thought her shooting from the free throw line area has improved, but it doesn't show in the stats. Often she's the last one down the court on either defense or offense. If it is a quick basket at the other end (whichever end), she's then in position quickly. (So, beware of quick three point attempts.) While she seems lazy at getting up and down the court, she plays hard when she's at the right end, but she tends to camp in the lane. I saw several times she should have been called for 3 (or even 5) seconds in the paint.  On offense, it might be a good strategy to get Chiney & Jos into the lane for rebounding quickly and go for a quick shot (a drive by Toni?) before Dolson has gotten down court. When Dolson starts hustling down, then don't try it. The idea is to try to wear Dolson down.
Mosqueda-Lewis, who hurt us so much, has really improved.
UConn seems to have more depth. This year, 5 players are averaging 23-28 minutes; 4 players 15-20 minutes; 1 player at 12 minutes. Stanford has 3 players 28-32 minutes; 3 at 18-23 minutes; 3 at 10-14 minutes.
Sagarin predictors (rpiratings.com) indicate a very close game, with Stanford given the edge by 1.6 pts (Rating), after including the home advantage of 3.9 pts. UConn leads in the Predictor, which is more based on points. It does seem like UConn is happy to run up the score
But, if you want to feel good, realtimerpi.com (which seems rather crazy in their rankings & predictions), predicts a 24 point win for Stanford, and predicts it is UConn's only loss (beating Baylor 82-54 in CT). (They predict closer wins across the bay and in Westwood. They predict two future games for UConn to be 119-54 and 89-6 !).
I'd feel better if we can get really good fan involvement Saturday and try to push that home advantage up a few more points.
My defensive line-up would be 6'3" Chiney on 6'4" Stewart, 5'7" Amber on 5'7" Hartley, 5'11" Toni on 6'0" Mosqueda-Lewis, possibly 6'3" Jos on 5'11" Faris, 6'3" Ruef/Greenfield on 6'5" Dolson.
Alternative:Â Chiney on Mosqueda-Lewis, Jos on Stewart, Toni on Faris, Amber on Hartley, Reuf/Greenfield on Dolson.