01-07-2026, 06:33 PM
(01-07-2026, 05:43 PM)fullmetal Wrote: How many TU-95s does Russia have left to spare from the Ukrainian special operation? (And I wonder how far from US naval air cover USCGC Munro is currently...)Russia probably has on the order of 40 TU-95s available and serviceable. They are theoretically rotated through their various roles, but I would guess at any given time they have 10-15 that are intended for "presence patrols". I would guess that US Navy air cover for the Munro is quite limited based on this link. However, land-based air support is definitely available although probably not continuous or instantaneously available. However, TU-95s would only be there to observe the situation, demonstrate Russian interest, and be a nuisance to the Munro. They probably couldn't be considered a "threat" as such. FWIW, there was a P-8 out there "observing" as well.
They are allowed to make identification passes/overflights of civilian ships without limits on frequency, but as I recall they are only allowed 2 "free" passes over a warship. The MPA must then exit the area (go over the horizon) before they can do it again. This is an interpretation of the "due regard" part of the statue, which assumes once you have identified a warship you need not do so again. Attempting a third pass could then be considered an attack. Not sure where this sits legally today. If you leave the area, you could conceivably need to "re-identify" the warship.
