[Mick]

I'm going to refrain from detailing my mixed reaction to the deposing of Maduro and hope for the best. And yes, I know that hope is not a strategy...

But back to the topic of this thread, anyone care to speculate how today's events might affect Russia's war in Ukraine?

1. Doesn't directly change battlefield dynamics, Ukrainian capabilities or Russian force posture.
2. Propaganda "moral" boom for Moscow. 
3. Russian Image as protector suffers, since they were close to Venezuela (also lost Assad in Syria). Maduro government was propped up by Russia, including loans, arms, military advisors. have to write that off now.
4. Overall weakens Putin's Global posture. Signals U. S. willingness to dismantle Russian allies. Russian multipolar influence eroded.
5. Possibility: Tacit exchange, Russia accepts U.S. interests in Venezuela for concessions in Ukraine. Some think Russia have baited the U.S. into this move.
6. Lesser propaganda boom for China, esp. if they want to attack Taiwan.
7. U. S. Aid to Ukraine gets messier. U.S. Political attention bandwidth shifts, slowing decision cycles.
8. Alliance cohesion risk. U. S. European allies will not be favorable.
9. Energy price channel changes. Short term: Russian war effort sensitive to oil & gas revenue and Venezuela was a key partner for Russia to circumvent sanctions, will be worse if U.S. authorities run things in Venezuela. Will make it harder for Russia to fund military activities. 
10. Venezuela is likely to increase capacity to max to boost revenue, lowering global oil costs.
11. Long term, Venezuela has brobdingnagian reserves, but degraded capacity, output recovery will take years. They will need financing. It won't come from Russia. Some already there from China. How deeply will the USA jump in?
12. how does it affect China/Russian alignment? China has Venezuelan interests, could alter China's support for Russia.

Overall: May hasten end to Ukraine conflict. Political distraction, messaging leverage for russia. Only truly material lever is energy market effects.

[Mick]

I'm going to refrain from detailing my mixed reaction to the deposing of Maduro and hope for the best. And yes, I know that hope is not a strategy...

But back to the topic of this thread, anyone care to speculate how today's events might affect Russia's war in Ukraine?

1. Doesn't directly change battlefield dynamics, Ukrainian capabilities or Russian force posture.
2. Propaganda "moral" boom for Moscow. 
3. Russian Image as protector suffers, since they were close to Venezuela (also lost Assad in Syria). Maduro government was propped up by Russia, including loans, arms, military advisors. have to write that off now.
4. Overall weakens Putin's Global posture. Signals U. S. willingness to dismantle Russian allies. Russian multipolar influence eroded.
5. Possibility: Tacit exchange, Russia accepts U.S. interests in Venezuela for concessions in Ukraine. Some think Russia have baited the U.S. into this move.
6. Lesser propaganda boom for China, esp. if they want to attack Taiwan.
7. U. S. Aid to Ukraine gets messier. U.S. Political attention bandwidth shifts, slowing decision cycles.
8. Alliance cohesion risk. U. S. European allies will not be favorable.
9. Energy price channel changes. Short term: Russian war effort sensitive to oil & gas revenue and Venezuela was a key partner for Russia to circumvent sanctions, will be worse if U.S. authorities run things in Venezuela. Will make it harder for Russia to fund military activities. 
10. Venezuela is likely to increase capacity to max to boost revenue, lowering global oil costs.
11. Long term, Venezuela has brobdingnagian reserves, but degraded capacity, output recovery will take years. They will need financing. It won't come from Russia. Some already there from China. How deeply will the USA jump in?
12. how does it affect China/Russian alignment? China has Venezuelan interests, could alter China's support for Russia.

Overall: May hasten end to Ukraine conflict. Political distraction, messaging leverage for russia. Only truly material lever is energy market effects.