[Goose]

SOURCES
Talking often with relatives in Eastern Europe, and my view that Putin does not want more acreage to manage -- he seeks ethnic Russians (in Crimea and the Donbas) instead to offset a demographic implosion... 

The obvious problem with that interpretation is that the ethnic Russians in Donbas could have (and still can) simply move to Russia. There isn't a lack of land or places to put them. If the ethnic Russians didn't "spontaneously" emigrate, Putin could have offered financial incentives to do so. That would have been much cheaper than his war has been. Even better, Putin could choose who could emigrate. People under 40 who could still have children yes, older people, no. Much better for demographics. It is equally obvious that starting a war that will kill hundreds of thousands of your potential fathers is demographically disadvantageous. Even if one accepts the idea that "most" of the casualties are inflicted on ethnic minority groups, there are still plenty of Russians getting killed. The junior officer casualties alone ensure that. For these reasons the demographic argument really doesn't fit the available facts.
 
The Donbas was at one time an industrial powerhouse. Well before this war, it had become a rust-belt area where all the manufacturing plants were obsolete and the mines in general so mined-out they were not economically competitive. It is a money sink. After the massive destruction it is even less able to support itself. It is not an economic win for Russia. However, Putin wants it because it was part of "Russia". Putin, who often lives in the past, sees it as a "pearl". He sees the rest of Ukraine the same way. If he didn't, he could stop where he is. He has no reason to continue unless he DOES want more acreage. All the Russian or Ukrainian (that are not actively fighting for Ukraine) young people (that would help with demographic issues) have left the remaining part of the Donbas (16%) that Ukraine still holds. All that are left are old people with no place to go. Putin could also give up Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast because they don't have all that many ethic Russians (percentage wise about half that of the Donbas). He could perhaps trade that for the 16% of the Donbas he wants. He isn't doing that. Clearly, Putin DOES want acreage.

 which is the other primary reason I believe he will move to consolidate the Eastern provinces (formerly Russia in the 16thC), Russia lacks soldiers for a full on invasion of Ukraine and Europe.

I would agree that Russia lacks the soldiers for a full invasion of Europe. I would agree that Russia probably lacks the soldiers to effectively occupy all of Ukraine. OTOH I think it is apparent that Russia DOES have enough soldiers to successfully invade Ukraine, especially given the lack of effective support from the US and Europe. As the US proved in both Afghanistan and Iraq it is quite possible to have enough troops to successfully invade another country but not have enough troops to "pacify" it.

The Baltics will be harassed, as they have been historically.  Putin is a dick.  He doesn't do "nice".

And Europe still needs to amp up Defense spending after three decades of "free riding", so said Chancellor Merz on BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg6v0pk964o

I think everyone agrees that Europe needs to increase its defense spending. However the "free riding" comments are directed at pleasing the US President. Whenever I hear that expression, I ask "Enumerate exactly what expenses the US incurred because European defense spending was in our view inadequate". Feel free to cite some and we can talk about it :-). For the first of those decades the US was actively encouraging restraint upon German military size and spending.

[Goose]

SOURCES
Talking often with relatives in Eastern Europe, and my view that Putin does not want more acreage to manage -- he seeks ethnic Russians (in Crimea and the Donbas) instead to offset a demographic implosion... 

The obvious problem with that interpretation is that the ethnic Russians in Donbas could have (and still can) simply move to Russia. There isn't a lack of land or places to put them. If the ethnic Russians didn't "spontaneously" emigrate, Putin could have offered financial incentives to do so. That would have been much cheaper than his war has been. Even better, Putin could choose who could emigrate. People under 40 who could still have children yes, older people, no. Much better for demographics. It is equally obvious that starting a war that will kill hundreds of thousands of your potential fathers is demographically disadvantageous. Even if one accepts the idea that "most" of the casualties are inflicted on ethnic minority groups, there are still plenty of Russians getting killed. The junior officer casualties alone ensure that. For these reasons the demographic argument really doesn't fit the available facts.
 
The Donbas was at one time an industrial powerhouse. Well before this war, it had become a rust-belt area where all the manufacturing plants were obsolete and the mines in general so mined-out they were not economically competitive. It is a money sink. After the massive destruction it is even less able to support itself. It is not an economic win for Russia. However, Putin wants it because it was part of "Russia". Putin, who often lives in the past, sees it as a "pearl". He sees the rest of Ukraine the same way. If he didn't, he could stop where he is. He has no reason to continue unless he DOES want more acreage. All the Russian or Ukrainian (that are not actively fighting for Ukraine) young people (that would help with demographic issues) have left the remaining part of the Donbas (16%) that Ukraine still holds. All that are left are old people with no place to go. Putin could also give up Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast because they don't have all that many ethic Russians (percentage wise about half that of the Donbas). He could perhaps trade that for the 16% of the Donbas he wants. He isn't doing that. Clearly, Putin DOES want acreage.

 which is the other primary reason I believe he will move to consolidate the Eastern provinces (formerly Russia in the 16thC), Russia lacks soldiers for a full on invasion of Ukraine and Europe.

I would agree that Russia lacks the soldiers for a full invasion of Europe. I would agree that Russia probably lacks the soldiers to effectively occupy all of Ukraine. OTOH I think it is apparent that Russia DOES have enough soldiers to successfully invade Ukraine, especially given the lack of effective support from the US and Europe. As the US proved in both Afghanistan and Iraq it is quite possible to have enough troops to successfully invade another country but not have enough troops to "pacify" it.

The Baltics will be harassed, as they have been historically.  Putin is a dick.  He doesn't do "nice".

And Europe still needs to amp up Defense spending after three decades of "free riding", so said Chancellor Merz on BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg6v0pk964o

I think everyone agrees that Europe needs to increase its defense spending. However the "free riding" comments are directed at pleasing the US President. Whenever I hear that expression, I ask "Enumerate exactly what expenses the US incurred because European defense spending was in our view inadequate". Feel free to cite some and we can talk about it :-). For the first of those decades the US was actively encouraging restraint upon German military size and spending.