[BostonCard]

No good solutions from here.
A)  Europe can try to play the "Neo-liberal Idealist" role and refuse to "reward the Aggressor evil Russia"... and so the war grinds on for another year or two, like WW1. 
Russia will keep bombing.  They have more inventory. 
Ukraine is exhausted.  I visited Kyiv in March 2023, looking at energy infrastructure. 

B)  Stop the killing, and take a Bad Deal.  Nobody, nobody has 200,000 troops to throw against 200,000+ land mines in Donbas, that will not take back territory. 
Russia will keep the Eastern portion, claiming the old boundaries from 1618, just before the Thirty Years War.
That is not "just"; Putin has a simple reply: "Make me"
Meanwhile, four years on, Europe (at various levels) still pays Russia for oil and gas. Russian leverage rises in Winter.

Serious REAL-POLITIK.
C) Worse... Russia & China amp up the rival BRICS currency, and Middle Eastern SWFs pull money OUT of Europe for fear of seizure.  European Banks are already strained by stagflation in the EU and industry sliding further.  

France and the UK suffer more severe fiscal crises than USA.  Both Starmer and Macron are running below 20% in approval -- Despite public statements by their leaders, their populations will refuse to provide troops and more resources to Ukraine.  Putin knows the fortitude of Europe is fractured and limp; with few soldiers. 
Putin is a vampire, and he knows the American people will not send troops either. 
Woodrow Wilson originated the "America FIRST" campaign for reelection in 1916 -- promising to keep USA out of "European wars".  Wilson. 

Despite pleading by Neo-liberals, there is no consensus to die in Ukraine, compared to battling Hitler in 1939.
Even then, USA did not get in.  Not until Dec 1941. 

There is no stomach to continue a losing battle.  
There are no winners in Ukraine.  #WinterISHere. 

Frankly, for USA, China is a much more insidious threat.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...-president

I agree with you that there are no winners in Ukraine.

But your comments are exactly why Ukraine can’t afford to take the deal, particularly one where they have to concede territory that Russia has not been able to conquer.  They know that Putin would pocket any gains from the cease fire, and take the opportunity to regroup, and attack at a future time of its choosing.  Because there is no desire from the west to shed blood for Ukraine, any security guarantee being proffered is meaningless; basically Ukraine would need Western troops on the ground that would be a tripwire, something that is unacceptable to Russia (because they know it would be a tripwire).  The Ukranian hope boils down to trading territory for time; Russia has captured about 5000 square kilometers this year, less than 1% of Ukranian territory.

The Europeans are largely going to continue to support Ukraine with money and weapons (not troops) because as long as Putin is stuck in a morass in Ukraine, it is not going to test NATO resolve in the Balkans.  I don’t know if Putin is crazy enough to try to attack the Balkans but nobody wants to find out.

BC

[BostonCard]

No good solutions from here.
A)  Europe can try to play the "Neo-liberal Idealist" role and refuse to "reward the Aggressor evil Russia"... and so the war grinds on for another year or two, like WW1. 
Russia will keep bombing.  They have more inventory. 
Ukraine is exhausted.  I visited Kyiv in March 2023, looking at energy infrastructure. 

B)  Stop the killing, and take a Bad Deal.  Nobody, nobody has 200,000 troops to throw against 200,000+ land mines in Donbas, that will not take back territory. 
Russia will keep the Eastern portion, claiming the old boundaries from 1618, just before the Thirty Years War.
That is not "just"; Putin has a simple reply: "Make me"
Meanwhile, four years on, Europe (at various levels) still pays Russia for oil and gas. Russian leverage rises in Winter.

Serious REAL-POLITIK.
C) Worse... Russia & China amp up the rival BRICS currency, and Middle Eastern SWFs pull money OUT of Europe for fear of seizure.  European Banks are already strained by stagflation in the EU and industry sliding further.  

France and the UK suffer more severe fiscal crises than USA.  Both Starmer and Macron are running below 20% in approval -- Despite public statements by their leaders, their populations will refuse to provide troops and more resources to Ukraine.  Putin knows the fortitude of Europe is fractured and limp; with few soldiers. 
Putin is a vampire, and he knows the American people will not send troops either. 
Woodrow Wilson originated the "America FIRST" campaign for reelection in 1916 -- promising to keep USA out of "European wars".  Wilson. 

Despite pleading by Neo-liberals, there is no consensus to die in Ukraine, compared to battling Hitler in 1939.
Even then, USA did not get in.  Not until Dec 1941. 

There is no stomach to continue a losing battle.  
There are no winners in Ukraine.  #WinterISHere. 

Frankly, for USA, China is a much more insidious threat.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...-president

I agree with you that there are no winners in Ukraine.

But your comments are exactly why Ukraine can’t afford to take the deal, particularly one where they have to concede territory that Russia has not been able to conquer.  They know that Putin would pocket any gains from the cease fire, and take the opportunity to regroup, and attack at a future time of its choosing.  Because there is no desire from the west to shed blood for Ukraine, any security guarantee being proffered is meaningless; basically Ukraine would need Western troops on the ground that would be a tripwire, something that is unacceptable to Russia (because they know it would be a tripwire).  The Ukranian hope boils down to trading territory for time; Russia has captured about 5000 square kilometers this year, less than 1% of Ukranian territory.

The Europeans are largely going to continue to support Ukraine with money and weapons (not troops) because as long as Putin is stuck in a morass in Ukraine, it is not going to test NATO resolve in the Balkans.  I don’t know if Putin is crazy enough to try to attack the Balkans but nobody wants to find out.

BC