[Maple Leaf]

Moreover, Gulbranson has been really average two weeks in a row now against solid competition, which is a level of play it would be surprising to see Brown be able to match based on everything we know about him - how he played last year, how he has fared in QB competitions at Stanford with two different head coaches, what his recruiting profile was, how QBs usually do when they play with terrible supporting casts in terms of OL protection....I mean, literally everything

What do you mean "recruiting profile"? Brown is the highest rated QB in his class still on an ACC roster.  That recruiting profile doesn't suggest he can be any more than "mediocre"?

Of course he can be but it’s not the likely outcome for somebody with his profile. I would share the voluminous research I’ve done in the past but am posting from a phone and don’t know how to cut and paste on this site without messing up (plus I don’t know if any of you want such a deep dive on this) so I’ll just summarize:

Back when Brown was higher regarded as a recruit than he ended up (composite #247), I compiled a large data set of quarterbacks ranked between 100-200 in the composite and then ranked them based on their actual college performance. I found that for QBs in the 100-200 range nationally there was a 4 percent chance of becoming a college legend (e.g., Jalen Hurts, JT Barrett), an 18 percent chance of being one of the best QBs in the nation (which I defined as having a top 30 season, e.g., Sam Darnold, Sam Ehlinger), and a median career expectation of guys like Cyler Miles, Myles Brennan, Jeremy Johnson, Brandon McIlwain, and our own Ryan Burns. As most Stanford fans likely have never heard of or at least don’t remember most of the guys in that latter group, the easiest way to think about this is that the median result is about what Ryan Burns gave us. After I did that analysis, Brown’s recruiting profile continued to drop (at one point he was a top 50 recruit nationally but he dropped after people realized how old for his class he is, he didn’t impress at Elite 11, colleges didn’t swarm to him like they would for an elite guy, etc.). I have not done the analysis for what the historical track record of 200-300 range QBs is but it’s probably worse than the research I did. In any case, I have been fine giving the benefit of the doubt and saying Burns is a median outcome. 

In our own historical experience, I have tracked where QBs were ranked in their classes compared to other QBs. Brown was QB16 his year, same as Burns and Josh Nunes. TC Ostrander was a bit higher regarded and Kevin Hogan and Jack West a bit lower regarded. The median outcome in our experience for a QB of Brown’s echelon is, again, Ryan Burns.

All of this analysis was before the transfer portal really took off. I would strongly suspect that the portal makes the path for high school guys like this even more fraught because by far the dominant strategy for Power Four programs is to poach guys from other schools. I have not done a transfer portal era-specific analysis of people with Brown’s profile, which would also be potentially confounded by the weirdness of COVID, but I doubt prospects for people like Brown have gotten better. 

Being a good Power Four QB is really hard. Fans constantly overestimate the prospects of (just about every) individual players.

Excellent presentation.  I might add that Brown played at Mater Dei which was rank #3 at the end of his senior year.  Playing on a topped rank team can slant evaluations of a player, especially the QB.

[Maple Leaf]

Moreover, Gulbranson has been really average two weeks in a row now against solid competition, which is a level of play it would be surprising to see Brown be able to match based on everything we know about him - how he played last year, how he has fared in QB competitions at Stanford with two different head coaches, what his recruiting profile was, how QBs usually do when they play with terrible supporting casts in terms of OL protection....I mean, literally everything

What do you mean "recruiting profile"? Brown is the highest rated QB in his class still on an ACC roster.  That recruiting profile doesn't suggest he can be any more than "mediocre"?

Of course he can be but it’s not the likely outcome for somebody with his profile. I would share the voluminous research I’ve done in the past but am posting from a phone and don’t know how to cut and paste on this site without messing up (plus I don’t know if any of you want such a deep dive on this) so I’ll just summarize:

Back when Brown was higher regarded as a recruit than he ended up (composite #247), I compiled a large data set of quarterbacks ranked between 100-200 in the composite and then ranked them based on their actual college performance. I found that for QBs in the 100-200 range nationally there was a 4 percent chance of becoming a college legend (e.g., Jalen Hurts, JT Barrett), an 18 percent chance of being one of the best QBs in the nation (which I defined as having a top 30 season, e.g., Sam Darnold, Sam Ehlinger), and a median career expectation of guys like Cyler Miles, Myles Brennan, Jeremy Johnson, Brandon McIlwain, and our own Ryan Burns. As most Stanford fans likely have never heard of or at least don’t remember most of the guys in that latter group, the easiest way to think about this is that the median result is about what Ryan Burns gave us. After I did that analysis, Brown’s recruiting profile continued to drop (at one point he was a top 50 recruit nationally but he dropped after people realized how old for his class he is, he didn’t impress at Elite 11, colleges didn’t swarm to him like they would for an elite guy, etc.). I have not done the analysis for what the historical track record of 200-300 range QBs is but it’s probably worse than the research I did. In any case, I have been fine giving the benefit of the doubt and saying Burns is a median outcome. 

In our own historical experience, I have tracked where QBs were ranked in their classes compared to other QBs. Brown was QB16 his year, same as Burns and Josh Nunes. TC Ostrander was a bit higher regarded and Kevin Hogan and Jack West a bit lower regarded. The median outcome in our experience for a QB of Brown’s echelon is, again, Ryan Burns.

All of this analysis was before the transfer portal really took off. I would strongly suspect that the portal makes the path for high school guys like this even more fraught because by far the dominant strategy for Power Four programs is to poach guys from other schools. I have not done a transfer portal era-specific analysis of people with Brown’s profile, which would also be potentially confounded by the weirdness of COVID, but I doubt prospects for people like Brown have gotten better. 

Being a good Power Four QB is really hard. Fans constantly overestimate the prospects of (just about every) individual players.

Excellent presentation.  I might add that Brown played at Mater Dei which was rank #3 at the end of his senior year.  Playing on a topped rank team can slant evaluations of a player, especially the QB.