[Mick]

https://x.com/MassDara/status/1965813427055816794

This thread has a map of all the drone flight paths the night of the incursions into Poland that I referred to in my earlier post.

From all I have read, the consensus is that this was a Russian effort to see what happens if we do this thing. Now they and Belaruss are conducting major war games and Poland is moving some 40,000 troops to the border. The Poles do not like the Russians.
I also saw an article that major Russian steel making firm is on the verge of going broke, their ability to provide the necessary steel for military weapons appears questionable. Hard to build a lot of military gear if your steel plants don't work.
Putin has some obvious problems.  He now has to pay recruits a lot of money so they can go to the Ukraine and die.  How long are the Russian youth willing to choose that option?
For what little its worth, I think Putin is running out of options, which is dangerous in itself.  If you reach the point where you can't pay enough to recruits to be willing to go to Ukraine and risk death, and you are no longer getting the income from oil and gas you once were, what is left to you? The question that hasn't been answered is what will Russia do if it runs out of economic options.

I've been concerned about this for some time. Backing a nuclear power, led by a frightened aging pseudo-Socialist, into a corner with decreasing options is not a recipe for success.

Given Russia's existing resources and shrinking population, they could reap immense rewards if they re-integrated into the modern world. But given Russia's leadership, that's the rough equivalent of changing the gravitational constant of the universe, so to speak.

So what are we going to do about it? Send 200 drones "inadvertently" into Russian air space? Congregate 100 top Russian political leaders and oligarchs with 100 western leaders with firm commitments from 1/3rd of the Global 2000 companies to invest in Russia (and Ukraine) once they lay down arms? Or just wait for ICBMs to fly?

[Mick]

https://x.com/MassDara/status/1965813427055816794

This thread has a map of all the drone flight paths the night of the incursions into Poland that I referred to in my earlier post.

From all I have read, the consensus is that this was a Russian effort to see what happens if we do this thing. Now they and Belaruss are conducting major war games and Poland is moving some 40,000 troops to the border. The Poles do not like the Russians.
I also saw an article that major Russian steel making firm is on the verge of going broke, their ability to provide the necessary steel for military weapons appears questionable. Hard to build a lot of military gear if your steel plants don't work.
Putin has some obvious problems.  He now has to pay recruits a lot of money so they can go to the Ukraine and die.  How long are the Russian youth willing to choose that option?
For what little its worth, I think Putin is running out of options, which is dangerous in itself.  If you reach the point where you can't pay enough to recruits to be willing to go to Ukraine and risk death, and you are no longer getting the income from oil and gas you once were, what is left to you? The question that hasn't been answered is what will Russia do if it runs out of economic options.

I've been concerned about this for some time. Backing a nuclear power, led by a frightened aging pseudo-Socialist, into a corner with decreasing options is not a recipe for success.

Given Russia's existing resources and shrinking population, they could reap immense rewards if they re-integrated into the modern world. But given Russia's leadership, that's the rough equivalent of changing the gravitational constant of the universe, so to speak.

So what are we going to do about it? Send 200 drones "inadvertently" into Russian air space? Congregate 100 top Russian political leaders and oligarchs with 100 western leaders with firm commitments from 1/3rd of the Global 2000 companies to invest in Russia (and Ukraine) once they lay down arms? Or just wait for ICBMs to fly?