09-10-2025, 05:43 PM
yeah, I had written as a reply to Mick and did not see your response, but great minds think alike (in this particular case, I feel validated that I recapitulated your thinking as I know that you’ve forgotten more about this topic than I could ever know).
One thought now that I read your response, while Russia has some plausible deniability that the drones made it into Poland accidentally by straying off course, there is no such excuse for a drone incursion into the Baltics, and it would be a clear escalation by Russia. I guess that is what you mean by “then things could get interesting”.
Only other thought is that I think Kyiv is more than 200 km from the Polish border. Eyeballing it, I think you would need to make the external ADZ 400 km in order to cover Kyiv. Of course, that also approximately the distance of Sevastopol from Romania, and even though legally it is considered Ukranian territory, Russia has a lot of air defenses there.
BC
One thought now that I read your response, while Russia has some plausible deniability that the drones made it into Poland accidentally by straying off course, there is no such excuse for a drone incursion into the Baltics, and it would be a clear escalation by Russia. I guess that is what you mean by “then things could get interesting”.
Only other thought is that I think Kyiv is more than 200 km from the Polish border. Eyeballing it, I think you would need to make the external ADZ 400 km in order to cover Kyiv. Of course, that also approximately the distance of Sevastopol from Romania, and even though legally it is considered Ukranian territory, Russia has a lot of air defenses there.
BC