[Goose]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/us/po...=url-share

This article should be gifted. It discusses the current relationship between the US administration and Modi. The US usage of "secondary tariffs" to reduce the trade in Russian oil is a tool that can possibly force Putin to stop the war. At the moment it is IMO probably the largest "card"" the US has to play. India is key to this process, as it is a very large importer of Russian oil. The administration had to bring a "deal" to India that was as close to revenue neutral as possible. This could have been accomplished. Instead the administration is resorting to brute force of tariffs to force India to cave on the Russian oil issue. That may or may not "work". Even if it does it will create lasting bad blood between India and the US. It will also come at a great political cost to Modi and he will not forget it.
 
India has never been an "ideal" trading partner with the US. It is not and won't for the foreseeable future be an ally of the US. However, attempting to force India into an agreement as a very "junior" partner has never worked in the past. It would be politically untenable for Modi if nothing else. Right now India has changed directions and once again building closer relations with Russia and China. If China builds pipelines that can deliver Russian oil to India the three nations can form a formidable energy alliance. The administration did not increase the China tariff in an attempt to force China to stop buying Russian oil. They may believe that China is too strong to be forced into such an action, while India OTOH is not. The result may be an agreement that insulates India from US pressure. In any case, the degraded relationship between India and the US bodes ill for the secondary tariff as a weapon for peace in Ukraine. It is one of the few cards the US has to play. So far, we are IMO seriously misplaying it.

[Goose]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/us/po...=url-share

This article should be gifted. It discusses the current relationship between the US administration and Modi. The US usage of "secondary tariffs" to reduce the trade in Russian oil is a tool that can possibly force Putin to stop the war. At the moment it is IMO probably the largest "card"" the US has to play. India is key to this process, as it is a very large importer of Russian oil. The administration had to bring a "deal" to India that was as close to revenue neutral as possible. This could have been accomplished. Instead the administration is resorting to brute force of tariffs to force India to cave on the Russian oil issue. That may or may not "work". Even if it does it will create lasting bad blood between India and the US. It will also come at a great political cost to Modi and he will not forget it.
 
India has never been an "ideal" trading partner with the US. It is not and won't for the foreseeable future be an ally of the US. However, attempting to force India into an agreement as a very "junior" partner has never worked in the past. It would be politically untenable for Modi if nothing else. Right now India has changed directions and once again building closer relations with Russia and China. If China builds pipelines that can deliver Russian oil to India the three nations can form a formidable energy alliance. The administration did not increase the China tariff in an attempt to force China to stop buying Russian oil. They may believe that China is too strong to be forced into such an action, while India OTOH is not. The result may be an agreement that insulates India from US pressure. In any case, the degraded relationship between India and the US bodes ill for the secondary tariff as a weapon for peace in Ukraine. It is one of the few cards the US has to play. So far, we are IMO seriously misplaying it.