[GK3]

You might think that four years into a war on their doorstep, European countries might diversify their energy supplies, but…

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europes..._permalink

(Should be gifted)

BC

This situation is unique and inherently not solvable. The refineries are all old. The one in Berlin is Russian owned. The others are owned by a Hungarian company, MOL Group. They are built explicitly to refine "Soviet" crude oil, now rusian and the 'stan's. These refineries can't refine the crude oil the rest of the world can deliver. I think there are some Indonesian alternate sources, but that is it AFAIK. The other problem is delivery. These refineries are all land-locked. Delivery of low-grade but cheap crude oil by pipeline makes them economically viable. Shipping oil any other way is too expensive, and pipelines would have to be built from a port all the way into Hungary/Slovakia. Very expensive capital investment that promises little ROI. The "right answer" would have been to simply buy finished petroleum products elsewhere, but that would be a financial disaster for MOL. They aren't going to do it. The Berlin refinery isn't owned by an EU based company. The German trustee is in no position to expend the necessary funds to upgrade the refinery and find other sources of crude oil that would make economic sense. Thus, here we remain.

UPDATE: Things are a bit better than I thought. https://kyivindependent.com/hungarys-oil...ian-crude/ MOL may have an upgraded refinery by sometime in 2026. From the tone of the article it appears MOL does not intend to switch totally off Ural crude. It may be that only part of the refinery will be upgraded to process non-Ural oil. The Druzhba pipeline is a big source of cheap crude that MOL wants to be an option after this war is over.
 
The Croatian pipeline has a capacity problem. It has more customers than it can serve. Hungary needs another source.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Western Europe allowed itself to become dependent on Russian natural gas and oil products, a situation which Putin has tried to take advantage of. Only now is Western Europe looking for an alternative. Perhaps more important is the wheat production from Ukrain and Russia.  Both are forecast to be down.  
The following link disusses this issue: https://www.allaboutfeed.net/market/feed...l-exports/
Whatever you think about Global Warming there is obviously some abnormal weather patterns around the world.  Countries in the Northern Latitudes like Russia have gamble year in and year out on the weather. If your people cannot eat, then you are in rock and hard place position if you are Putin.

[GK3]

You might think that four years into a war on their doorstep, European countries might diversify their energy supplies, but…

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europes..._permalink

(Should be gifted)

BC

This situation is unique and inherently not solvable. The refineries are all old. The one in Berlin is Russian owned. The others are owned by a Hungarian company, MOL Group. They are built explicitly to refine "Soviet" crude oil, now rusian and the 'stan's. These refineries can't refine the crude oil the rest of the world can deliver. I think there are some Indonesian alternate sources, but that is it AFAIK. The other problem is delivery. These refineries are all land-locked. Delivery of low-grade but cheap crude oil by pipeline makes them economically viable. Shipping oil any other way is too expensive, and pipelines would have to be built from a port all the way into Hungary/Slovakia. Very expensive capital investment that promises little ROI. The "right answer" would have been to simply buy finished petroleum products elsewhere, but that would be a financial disaster for MOL. They aren't going to do it. The Berlin refinery isn't owned by an EU based company. The German trustee is in no position to expend the necessary funds to upgrade the refinery and find other sources of crude oil that would make economic sense. Thus, here we remain.

UPDATE: Things are a bit better than I thought. https://kyivindependent.com/hungarys-oil...ian-crude/ MOL may have an upgraded refinery by sometime in 2026. From the tone of the article it appears MOL does not intend to switch totally off Ural crude. It may be that only part of the refinery will be upgraded to process non-Ural oil. The Druzhba pipeline is a big source of cheap crude that MOL wants to be an option after this war is over.
 
The Croatian pipeline has a capacity problem. It has more customers than it can serve. Hungary needs another source.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Western Europe allowed itself to become dependent on Russian natural gas and oil products, a situation which Putin has tried to take advantage of. Only now is Western Europe looking for an alternative. Perhaps more important is the wheat production from Ukrain and Russia.  Both are forecast to be down.  
The following link disusses this issue: https://www.allaboutfeed.net/market/feed...l-exports/
Whatever you think about Global Warming there is obviously some abnormal weather patterns around the world.  Countries in the Northern Latitudes like Russia have gamble year in and year out on the weather. If your people cannot eat, then you are in rock and hard place position if you are Putin.