08-18-2025, 09:15 PM
WHAT DO WE GOT HERE? Summit on Ukraine at White House today.
The Chief of NATO, Mark Rutte, declared "It was a successful day." -- by that we think he means that 1) USA and Europe emerged from the huddle without any bitter differences, mostly nuance; 2) For Rutte, EU members (minus Spain) remain committed to a bold new ambition of 5% of GDP toward Defense spending by 2032. Bravo. #UkraineWar Rutte believes that Trump was essential to push NATO to 5%.
A) Instead of just a Ceasefire (unsure one would hold), the West Team are now aiming for a "Peace Deal", which would involve an end to hostile actions and some territorial concessions to Russia in the East (perhaps not as much as Russia wants, but mostly what they have taken by force).
-- another year of war and bloodshed will not "win" that territory back. Russia has installed tens of thousands of mines (says ISW).
Even 70% of Ukrainians now (says Gallup) are exhausted of war, and favor an end to violence, even if it means losing territory.
MAJOR SHIFT: https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukra...apses.aspx
B) Trump stated that "USA will participate in security assurances" -- but this does not mean troops. That is a bright red line for USA. Instead, USA will SELL (not give) weapons into Europe to pass along to Ukraine, because that counts toward the 5% of SPENDING on defense.
USA can sell F-35s (not F-22s) and the long parts and weapons train for F-35s, and Patriot missile batteries, helicopters, communications gear...
Plus... "Golden Dome".
C) Ukraine can only make its national payroll now by hiring itself out to be the "European Defense" against craven, greedy Russian Bear.
Ukraine can fund some of their defense spending with new minerals exploitation and agricultural goods. Ukraine desperately must rebuild its ravaged economy, and 3-5 million refugees need to be brought back home from mostly Europe (Poland).
European youths (under 35) mostly do not want to serve in the military. [My daughter served in US Army Logistics over there, 2015-2018].
Ukraine cannot keep suffering losses, but they can be paid to "DEFEND". Europe prefers to write checks, not send soldiers.
TODAY:
"Europe must stop relying on avoiding the worst-possible outcome and hoping for the best when it comes to Trump. They need to stop relying on changing his mind and dramatically step up their support for the Ukrainian army. They have to show that they’re really in this for the long run by providing way more weaponry, way more support, and maybe eventually committing to putting forces on the ground to protect any peace that eventually comes."
Prof. Matthias Matthijs, Senior Fellow at CFR, and Prof at SAIS.
https://www.cfr.org/article/major-takeaw...an-leaders
The Chief of NATO, Mark Rutte, declared "It was a successful day." -- by that we think he means that 1) USA and Europe emerged from the huddle without any bitter differences, mostly nuance; 2) For Rutte, EU members (minus Spain) remain committed to a bold new ambition of 5% of GDP toward Defense spending by 2032. Bravo. #UkraineWar Rutte believes that Trump was essential to push NATO to 5%.
A) Instead of just a Ceasefire (unsure one would hold), the West Team are now aiming for a "Peace Deal", which would involve an end to hostile actions and some territorial concessions to Russia in the East (perhaps not as much as Russia wants, but mostly what they have taken by force).
-- another year of war and bloodshed will not "win" that territory back. Russia has installed tens of thousands of mines (says ISW).
Even 70% of Ukrainians now (says Gallup) are exhausted of war, and favor an end to violence, even if it means losing territory.
MAJOR SHIFT: https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukra...apses.aspx
B) Trump stated that "USA will participate in security assurances" -- but this does not mean troops. That is a bright red line for USA. Instead, USA will SELL (not give) weapons into Europe to pass along to Ukraine, because that counts toward the 5% of SPENDING on defense.
USA can sell F-35s (not F-22s) and the long parts and weapons train for F-35s, and Patriot missile batteries, helicopters, communications gear...
Plus... "Golden Dome".
C) Ukraine can only make its national payroll now by hiring itself out to be the "European Defense" against craven, greedy Russian Bear.
Ukraine can fund some of their defense spending with new minerals exploitation and agricultural goods. Ukraine desperately must rebuild its ravaged economy, and 3-5 million refugees need to be brought back home from mostly Europe (Poland).
European youths (under 35) mostly do not want to serve in the military. [My daughter served in US Army Logistics over there, 2015-2018].
Ukraine cannot keep suffering losses, but they can be paid to "DEFEND". Europe prefers to write checks, not send soldiers.
TODAY:
"Europe must stop relying on avoiding the worst-possible outcome and hoping for the best when it comes to Trump. They need to stop relying on changing his mind and dramatically step up their support for the Ukrainian army. They have to show that they’re really in this for the long run by providing way more weaponry, way more support, and maybe eventually committing to putting forces on the ground to protect any peace that eventually comes."
Prof. Matthias Matthijs, Senior Fellow at CFR, and Prof at SAIS.
https://www.cfr.org/article/major-takeaw...an-leaders