[Goose]

Question for Goose and anyone else who cares to answer: how does the Ukrainian war impact the military strategy of the Chinese, particularly as they seem to be getting more and more aggressive in the South Pacific. Also curious as to your thoughts on the reactions of the other south Pacific nations...

How China’s Military Is Flexing Its Power in the Pacific - WSJ

IMO the war in Ukraine affects Chinese military strategy and tactics only very peripherally, if at all. The conflict China is most "anticipating" in a notional attempt to defeat and occupy Taiwan isn't going to be trench warfare. It will primarily be a naval and air war all the way through. China needs to suppress Taiwan's defenses to the point it can effect a successful amphibious landing on Taiwan. It must then be able to supply and reinforce that landing as necessary. To do that China also has to cut Taiwan off from resupply by its allies via sea and air. If it accomplishes these goals, Taiwan inevitably falls due to lack of military supplies, if nothing else. Totally different than the Ukrainian war.
 
The land battle on Taiwan, if it comes to that, will be won by the side that can maintain its air and sea lines of communication with the island. China has a big advantage in that it is much, much closer than the US, or even Korea and Japan. China is also quite certain that the US is not going to attempt an invasion of the Chinese mainland in response to a Taiwan scenario, and if we should be so foolish I am sure their response will be "Bring it on" :-).

[Goose]

Question for Goose and anyone else who cares to answer: how does the Ukrainian war impact the military strategy of the Chinese, particularly as they seem to be getting more and more aggressive in the South Pacific. Also curious as to your thoughts on the reactions of the other south Pacific nations...

How China’s Military Is Flexing Its Power in the Pacific - WSJ

IMO the war in Ukraine affects Chinese military strategy and tactics only very peripherally, if at all. The conflict China is most "anticipating" in a notional attempt to defeat and occupy Taiwan isn't going to be trench warfare. It will primarily be a naval and air war all the way through. China needs to suppress Taiwan's defenses to the point it can effect a successful amphibious landing on Taiwan. It must then be able to supply and reinforce that landing as necessary. To do that China also has to cut Taiwan off from resupply by its allies via sea and air. If it accomplishes these goals, Taiwan inevitably falls due to lack of military supplies, if nothing else. Totally different than the Ukrainian war.
 
The land battle on Taiwan, if it comes to that, will be won by the side that can maintain its air and sea lines of communication with the island. China has a big advantage in that it is much, much closer than the US, or even Korea and Japan. China is also quite certain that the US is not going to attempt an invasion of the Chinese mainland in response to a Taiwan scenario, and if we should be so foolish I am sure their response will be "Bring it on" :-).