[Goose]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckglxwp5x03o

So basically we made a big show of force to not set back the nuclear program by more than a few months and Iran pretended to strike us back and now there is a cease fire that more or less leaves the status quo ante.

BC

I don't think it restores the status quo ante. First, nobody actually knows how much damage was done to the Iranian nuclear program, probably not even the Iranians at this point. DIA estimates have been wildly wrong (in both directions) quite often in the past. Of course Trumps initial bluster was nonsense, but we do not yet have "ground truth" on the impact of both the material and human damage upon the Iranian program.
 
It is also not yet clear whether Iran still believes attempting to get nuclear weapons is a net positive. Iran has been sanctioned by the US for trying. That was bad, but up until now nobody ever attacked Iran to prevent them from doing so. Both Israel and the US have now done exactly that. That is a "big deal". The cost of playing the nuclear game just went way up. Worse still, the US, who up until now hadn't struck an offensive military blow against the Iran has now done so. There is every reason to believe that the US will do it again if it believes Iran is approaching a nuclear capability.
 
The cease fire fails to resolve the underlying causes of the war. Iran's conduct has been unacceptable to both the US and Israel for quite some time, but the calculus was that a military solution would not work. The calculus changed when Iran became vulnerable. If Iran's conduct isn't altered there is no reason to believe the cease fire can persist. It may just be the mandatory media time-out before the "game" begins again.

[Goose]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckglxwp5x03o

So basically we made a big show of force to not set back the nuclear program by more than a few months and Iran pretended to strike us back and now there is a cease fire that more or less leaves the status quo ante.

BC

I don't think it restores the status quo ante. First, nobody actually knows how much damage was done to the Iranian nuclear program, probably not even the Iranians at this point. DIA estimates have been wildly wrong (in both directions) quite often in the past. Of course Trumps initial bluster was nonsense, but we do not yet have "ground truth" on the impact of both the material and human damage upon the Iranian program.
 
It is also not yet clear whether Iran still believes attempting to get nuclear weapons is a net positive. Iran has been sanctioned by the US for trying. That was bad, but up until now nobody ever attacked Iran to prevent them from doing so. Both Israel and the US have now done exactly that. That is a "big deal". The cost of playing the nuclear game just went way up. Worse still, the US, who up until now hadn't struck an offensive military blow against the Iran has now done so. There is every reason to believe that the US will do it again if it believes Iran is approaching a nuclear capability.
 
The cease fire fails to resolve the underlying causes of the war. Iran's conduct has been unacceptable to both the US and Israel for quite some time, but the calculus was that a military solution would not work. The calculus changed when Iran became vulnerable. If Iran's conduct isn't altered there is no reason to believe the cease fire can persist. It may just be the mandatory media time-out before the "game" begins again.