[GK3]

Hmmmmmmm

"Separately, a senior U.S. official who asked for anonymity acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but severely damaged it."

https://x.com/shashj/status/1936789874100617380

Iran said right after the strikes that they had dispersed nuclear material at Fordow before the strike.

All sides knew that the storage of nuclear material would not be at the site where it could be refined.  The bombing was intended to destroy/severely damage the refining facility, not the nuclear material. 

The optimum damage would be the collapse of the underground chambers. Next best would be to damage the rock structure so as to make it too unstable to use the facility. Much less good would be to destroy all tunnels and shafts  so they are unusable and new ones must be made. 

In this case, BDA might be made by dropping seismometers around the facility and then dropping a bomb or two near it to get good views of the seismic reflections. 
(I wouldn’t know if such an array of seismometers waa not in place before the big bombs struck.  I would think including such an array as being dropped minutes before the bomb would be a worthwhile addition to the payload)


However, even if the bunker busters were able to collapse the facility at 100m, wouldn’t a new  facility be constructed 400m below ground?

Even if seismically feasible (that's a lot of weight on your roof), there's a lot to be said about dealing with the problem in front of you. Sure they can dig deeper next time. That just bought you 10 years of construction and billions in expense. Maybe by that time we're sending micro-drones down the air vents instead of bunker busters. You're also only as vulnerable as your entrance/exit routes.

This ISW article contains some food for thought.

Saber rattling by the Russians with a rather far out claim that several countries are prepared to directly supply Iran with Nucs.  Who would they be?
The obvious candidates would be Russia, China, Pakistan, India and North Korea. I would think only NK would be crazy enough to do that.

Another question, does Iran have ability to permanently shut down the Strait of Hormuz?  Doing that might get them even more attacks which I wonder they could even survive.

[GK3]

Hmmmmmmm

"Separately, a senior U.S. official who asked for anonymity acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but severely damaged it."

https://x.com/shashj/status/1936789874100617380

Iran said right after the strikes that they had dispersed nuclear material at Fordow before the strike.

All sides knew that the storage of nuclear material would not be at the site where it could be refined.  The bombing was intended to destroy/severely damage the refining facility, not the nuclear material. 

The optimum damage would be the collapse of the underground chambers. Next best would be to damage the rock structure so as to make it too unstable to use the facility. Much less good would be to destroy all tunnels and shafts  so they are unusable and new ones must be made. 

In this case, BDA might be made by dropping seismometers around the facility and then dropping a bomb or two near it to get good views of the seismic reflections. 
(I wouldn’t know if such an array of seismometers waa not in place before the big bombs struck.  I would think including such an array as being dropped minutes before the bomb would be a worthwhile addition to the payload)


However, even if the bunker busters were able to collapse the facility at 100m, wouldn’t a new  facility be constructed 400m below ground?

Even if seismically feasible (that's a lot of weight on your roof), there's a lot to be said about dealing with the problem in front of you. Sure they can dig deeper next time. That just bought you 10 years of construction and billions in expense. Maybe by that time we're sending micro-drones down the air vents instead of bunker busters. You're also only as vulnerable as your entrance/exit routes.

This ISW article contains some food for thought.

Saber rattling by the Russians with a rather far out claim that several countries are prepared to directly supply Iran with Nucs.  Who would they be?
The obvious candidates would be Russia, China, Pakistan, India and North Korea. I would think only NK would be crazy enough to do that.

Another question, does Iran have ability to permanently shut down the Strait of Hormuz?  Doing that might get them even more attacks which I wonder they could even survive.