[MV72018]

I checked USGS’s earthquakes bigger than 2.5 an hour or two after the announcement and none were registered in Iran.

Quite possibly, the earthquake monitors are filtering out near-surface activity.

I’ve seen 1+ magnitude (depth of 0km) earthquakes registered in Santa Clara county mining ops clearly from man-made blasts. So I expected to see these bunker busters. 

I haven't seen a firm time of the bombing (I guess no one got invited to Signal!).  Trump posted his announcement at 7:46 EDT (Sat 23:46 UTC).

Looking at a list of earthquakes in the vicinity of Iran (> 1, apparently)
lat/long  day GMT  Mag  depth
(no earlier quakes on Sat GMT)
29.31N 53.07E Sat 20:08:11 GMT  2.5  5km
31.45N 57.13E Sat  23:47:59 GMT  2.6  8km
27.879 56.702 Sun 04:53:37 GMT 4.4  10km
27.800 56.790 Sun  05:05:19 GMT 3.0 10km
36.740 49.790  Sun 06:15:40 GMT  3.7  8km
32.23N 56.09E Sun 06:51:19 GMT 2.5  9km

Saturday was oddly quiet for Iran in terms of recorded earthquakes.  Hmmmm.....

For reference
Fordo: 34.2605° N, 50.9042° E
Natanz: 33.5074, 51.9137
Isfahan: 32.6539° N, 51.6660° E

Relevant article:  Identifying attacks in the Russia–Ukraine conflict using seismic array data

Very relevant article! Quite interesting work being done in the middle of a conflict. The sensor array available to the authors of the paper is undoubtedly much "better" than whatever could be directed against the MOP strikes in Iran, even if the "normal" arrays were augmented by a few sensors placed much closer to the target and "optimally" located to estimate its depth. OTOH the authors of the paper were trying to detect explosions that were much smaller than the MOP would produce. The paper outlined a methodology to estimate the time, location and explosive size of typical "military" weapons. The largest "weapon's grade" they considered "reasonable" was the 700 kg Iskander warhead. The explosive payload of the MOP was presumably about 2423 kg which means its "footprint" would be more like a mining explosion.
 
Estimating the dept of the MOP explosion is in some ways a much easier problem in that the location is known quite exactly. The actual time of detonation is not known exactly but is known well enough to eliminate the detection problems the authors of the paper had to solve. OTOH the goal of estimating the depth of the MOP explosion to adequate accuracy with a less-than-optimal array requires "good" precision. The MOP is supposedly rated to penetrate 60 m of earth before exploding. Knowing how deep it actually did go therefore would require real good resolution. Of course there may be clues in the actual seismic waveform that would separately reveal the collapse of a substantial interior void.

(Trump said more than just that the attack was a "big success".  He said
"Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."
I doubt he has the information to make such a claim.)

Totally agree. At that point in time no "good" BDA could have been available. At that point all we would know was that the bombs hit the correct geographic position and the aircraft made it out without loss. The military effectiveness could not yet have been know. I suspect that as of 8:23 AM PDT that question still lacks a complete answer.

Trump lied (about the success of the bombings)? I'm shocked!

[MV72018]

I checked USGS’s earthquakes bigger than 2.5 an hour or two after the announcement and none were registered in Iran.

Quite possibly, the earthquake monitors are filtering out near-surface activity.

I’ve seen 1+ magnitude (depth of 0km) earthquakes registered in Santa Clara county mining ops clearly from man-made blasts. So I expected to see these bunker busters. 

I haven't seen a firm time of the bombing (I guess no one got invited to Signal!).  Trump posted his announcement at 7:46 EDT (Sat 23:46 UTC).

Looking at a list of earthquakes in the vicinity of Iran (> 1, apparently)
lat/long  day GMT  Mag  depth
(no earlier quakes on Sat GMT)
29.31N 53.07E Sat 20:08:11 GMT  2.5  5km
31.45N 57.13E Sat  23:47:59 GMT  2.6  8km
27.879 56.702 Sun 04:53:37 GMT 4.4  10km
27.800 56.790 Sun  05:05:19 GMT 3.0 10km
36.740 49.790  Sun 06:15:40 GMT  3.7  8km
32.23N 56.09E Sun 06:51:19 GMT 2.5  9km

Saturday was oddly quiet for Iran in terms of recorded earthquakes.  Hmmmm.....

For reference
Fordo: 34.2605° N, 50.9042° E
Natanz: 33.5074, 51.9137
Isfahan: 32.6539° N, 51.6660° E

Relevant article:  Identifying attacks in the Russia–Ukraine conflict using seismic array data

Very relevant article! Quite interesting work being done in the middle of a conflict. The sensor array available to the authors of the paper is undoubtedly much "better" than whatever could be directed against the MOP strikes in Iran, even if the "normal" arrays were augmented by a few sensors placed much closer to the target and "optimally" located to estimate its depth. OTOH the authors of the paper were trying to detect explosions that were much smaller than the MOP would produce. The paper outlined a methodology to estimate the time, location and explosive size of typical "military" weapons. The largest "weapon's grade" they considered "reasonable" was the 700 kg Iskander warhead. The explosive payload of the MOP was presumably about 2423 kg which means its "footprint" would be more like a mining explosion.
 
Estimating the dept of the MOP explosion is in some ways a much easier problem in that the location is known quite exactly. The actual time of detonation is not known exactly but is known well enough to eliminate the detection problems the authors of the paper had to solve. OTOH the goal of estimating the depth of the MOP explosion to adequate accuracy with a less-than-optimal array requires "good" precision. The MOP is supposedly rated to penetrate 60 m of earth before exploding. Knowing how deep it actually did go therefore would require real good resolution. Of course there may be clues in the actual seismic waveform that would separately reveal the collapse of a substantial interior void.

(Trump said more than just that the attack was a "big success".  He said
"Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."
I doubt he has the information to make such a claim.)

Totally agree. At that point in time no "good" BDA could have been available. At that point all we would know was that the bombs hit the correct geographic position and the aircraft made it out without loss. The military effectiveness could not yet have been know. I suspect that as of 8:23 AM PDT that question still lacks a complete answer.

Trump lied (about the success of the bombings)? I'm shocked!