[Goose]

Interesting comparison of Israeli air superiority in western Iran and the lack thereof for Russia in Ukraine…

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/is..._permalink

Should be gifted.

BC

Great article BC, thanks! The article makes lots of good points (high density!). IMO the most important ones are that 1) Israel having F-35s was key to their gaining air superiority (at least) in western Iran without incurring heavy losses, and 2) Iran's air force and IADS was not nearly as strong as Ukraine's, both in hardware and especially in leadership. IMO this needs more emphasis because the Israeli success needs to be evaluated in context.
 
When the Soviet Union dissolved the Ukraine/Crimea area possessed one of the largest and most capable IADS in the world. It was of course intended to defend Russia, not defend against Russia. However, reorienting it was possible. The hardware was 30 years old in 2022, but it was still quite serviceable. Iran OTOH had relatively little missile based air defense in 1979. It did have a superb air force. Iran then was faced with sanctions that cut if off from spare parts and tech support. It then had to fight a long and bloody war with Iraq. Most of its western-made missile systems, such as they were, were expended. The air force also suffered heavy attrition. Their few F-4s and F-14s are now ancient, 46 years old at a minimum. The Iranians were also unable to acquire an adequate air defense from the countries that would still sell to them, mostly Russia and China.

The article also addresses the difference between the Israeli (and NATO) theory of air warfare.

“All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that’s it,” he said.

While that isn't literally true it does encapsulate what Russia expects offensively from its air force vs. what Israel does. Defensively is another matter. We do not know what the Russian air force could accomplish if attacked by a "western" air force. Their inability/unwillingness to combat Ukrainian drones with the VKS does raise questions/doubts. No conclusions should be drawn about Russian defensive capabilities from the Iranian's performance nor from the war in Ukraine. The material disparities are just too great to tell us anything.

---

Ukraine, specifically Zelenskyy, has expressed a desire for Ukraine to follow the "Israeli model" if it cannot join NATO. There are lots of problems with that, but a look at the Israeli air force highlights one of them. The Israeli "fighting" ORBAT consists of:

1. 175 F-16C/I (Sufa) Fighter/Bombers. The I models have conformal shoulder tanks for greatly extended range.
   
2. 39 F-35I Stealth Fighter/Bombers. These are F-35As with Israeli specific hardware and software modifications.
   
3. 84 F-15A/F-15C Fighter/Bombers.
   
4. 25 F-15 Strike Eagle Fighter/Bombers.
   

Ukraine OTOH have 85 F-16s of mixed vintage "promised", with somewhere under 40 delivered. Ukraine also has "around" 6 operational Mirage 2000s with 24 total promised. They also have somewhere between 30 and 60 operational Soviet-era aircraft remaining, maybe. It is obvious how far  short of an Israeli model Ukraine is today.
 
Could Israel have executed the air war they are fighting without F-35s? Yes, but the cost in F-16s would be much higher and it would take much longer to reach the point they are at today, several weeks at a minimum. During that time Iran could blast away with its ballistic missiles. Could Ukraine do the same against Russia? If Ukraine had 200 F-16s with experienced pilots, jamming pods, lots of HARM missiles and intelligence/ELINT support, yes, IMO Ukraine could achieve local air superiority over a substantial swath of the battlefield. That would make things very dicey for the Russians in that area. Today, obviously absolutely not.

[Goose]

Interesting comparison of Israeli air superiority in western Iran and the lack thereof for Russia in Ukraine…

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/is..._permalink

Should be gifted.

BC

Great article BC, thanks! The article makes lots of good points (high density!). IMO the most important ones are that 1) Israel having F-35s was key to their gaining air superiority (at least) in western Iran without incurring heavy losses, and 2) Iran's air force and IADS was not nearly as strong as Ukraine's, both in hardware and especially in leadership. IMO this needs more emphasis because the Israeli success needs to be evaluated in context.
 
When the Soviet Union dissolved the Ukraine/Crimea area possessed one of the largest and most capable IADS in the world. It was of course intended to defend Russia, not defend against Russia. However, reorienting it was possible. The hardware was 30 years old in 2022, but it was still quite serviceable. Iran OTOH had relatively little missile based air defense in 1979. It did have a superb air force. Iran then was faced with sanctions that cut if off from spare parts and tech support. It then had to fight a long and bloody war with Iraq. Most of its western-made missile systems, such as they were, were expended. The air force also suffered heavy attrition. Their few F-4s and F-14s are now ancient, 46 years old at a minimum. The Iranians were also unable to acquire an adequate air defense from the countries that would still sell to them, mostly Russia and China.

The article also addresses the difference between the Israeli (and NATO) theory of air warfare.

“All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that’s it,” he said.

While that isn't literally true it does encapsulate what Russia expects offensively from its air force vs. what Israel does. Defensively is another matter. We do not know what the Russian air force could accomplish if attacked by a "western" air force. Their inability/unwillingness to combat Ukrainian drones with the VKS does raise questions/doubts. No conclusions should be drawn about Russian defensive capabilities from the Iranian's performance nor from the war in Ukraine. The material disparities are just too great to tell us anything.

---

Ukraine, specifically Zelenskyy, has expressed a desire for Ukraine to follow the "Israeli model" if it cannot join NATO. There are lots of problems with that, but a look at the Israeli air force highlights one of them. The Israeli "fighting" ORBAT consists of:

1. 175 F-16C/I (Sufa) Fighter/Bombers. The I models have conformal shoulder tanks for greatly extended range.
   
2. 39 F-35I Stealth Fighter/Bombers. These are F-35As with Israeli specific hardware and software modifications.
   
3. 84 F-15A/F-15C Fighter/Bombers.
   
4. 25 F-15 Strike Eagle Fighter/Bombers.
   

Ukraine OTOH have 85 F-16s of mixed vintage "promised", with somewhere under 40 delivered. Ukraine also has "around" 6 operational Mirage 2000s with 24 total promised. They also have somewhere between 30 and 60 operational Soviet-era aircraft remaining, maybe. It is obvious how far  short of an Israeli model Ukraine is today.
 
Could Israel have executed the air war they are fighting without F-35s? Yes, but the cost in F-16s would be much higher and it would take much longer to reach the point they are at today, several weeks at a minimum. During that time Iran could blast away with its ballistic missiles. Could Ukraine do the same against Russia? If Ukraine had 200 F-16s with experienced pilots, jamming pods, lots of HARM missiles and intelligence/ELINT support, yes, IMO Ukraine could achieve local air superiority over a substantial swath of the battlefield. That would make things very dicey for the Russians in that area. Today, obviously absolutely not.