[Goose]

Thanks for the analysis Goose and a lot of that rings true. 

I also wonder about the timeline here. Having seriously degraded Irans air defenses, and possibly having weathered or destroyed much of Iran's ballistic missile response capability, what is preventing this from turning into a months long campaign of aerial bombardment? Especially if Israeli planes can now get close enough to use "dumb" bombs which they presumably have or can get a much larger supply of.

At the moment, nothing appears to stand in the way of that scenario. The Israeli government has publicly indicated that bombing will continue "for a long time until every target is destroyed". Iran will launch whatever it can for as long as it can. How this all ends is a big question. Israel has its preferred scenario, but that may not come to pass. The Saudi's have their own interests and may broker some kind of a diplomatic deal that leaves Iran weaker and Saudi stronger, and Saudi "recognizing" Israel as part of the deal. That might fit Saudi ambitions to become the major Islamic power in the region. Türkiye (Erdogan) may also see an opportunity to become the "big dog" in the middle east. https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/d0b7176e22b7 They also border Syria in a place where they could take it upon themselves to "protect" Syrian air space. That would of course result in a clash with Israel. Hopefully Erdogan will continue to be satisfied with words and not resort to deeds.

Israel also has some time limits. Iran will not sit still. Most of their air defense is in the southern part of the country. That deployment made sense when the Persian Gulf was the main threat axis. Redeployment to a more Northwest posture  will make it more difficult for Israel and Israel will lose some planes. Iran can't stop Israel but it can raise the price. Iran is also undoubtedly trying to get more air defense capability. Right now (unfortunately for the world) it is a seller's market. War makes strange bedfellows. China might "help" if they see a clear diplomatic/military reason. Russia is way too busy with its own problems. Israel suffers from the serious effects this war has on its economy. As long as it looks like they are "winning" and may reach the goal of removing Iran as a major force against Israel, that may be fine. If it ever looks like they will not succeed, domestic politics can call a halt to the effort. The US may also call a halt by credible threaten to withdraw support from Israel. I don't see that happening "soon" but it isn't impossible if this war drags on.

Internally, while there is dislike of Netenyahu, all parties are in favor of preventing an Iranian nuclear program or at least are standing behind the flag. Internationally, Iran has made few friends and many enemies. Even countries that dislike Israel are likely happy to see the two have at it, which fits the fact that there has seemed to be little international outcry.

Mostly agree. Lots of the "power brokers" in the Middle East would like to see Iran come to grief. These states see a weakened Iran as creating a vacuum that said state can fill. However as things play out these states will want to see "stability" and their attitudes will change.

[Goose]

Thanks for the analysis Goose and a lot of that rings true. 

I also wonder about the timeline here. Having seriously degraded Irans air defenses, and possibly having weathered or destroyed much of Iran's ballistic missile response capability, what is preventing this from turning into a months long campaign of aerial bombardment? Especially if Israeli planes can now get close enough to use "dumb" bombs which they presumably have or can get a much larger supply of.

At the moment, nothing appears to stand in the way of that scenario. The Israeli government has publicly indicated that bombing will continue "for a long time until every target is destroyed". Iran will launch whatever it can for as long as it can. How this all ends is a big question. Israel has its preferred scenario, but that may not come to pass. The Saudi's have their own interests and may broker some kind of a diplomatic deal that leaves Iran weaker and Saudi stronger, and Saudi "recognizing" Israel as part of the deal. That might fit Saudi ambitions to become the major Islamic power in the region. Türkiye (Erdogan) may also see an opportunity to become the "big dog" in the middle east. https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/d0b7176e22b7 They also border Syria in a place where they could take it upon themselves to "protect" Syrian air space. That would of course result in a clash with Israel. Hopefully Erdogan will continue to be satisfied with words and not resort to deeds.

Israel also has some time limits. Iran will not sit still. Most of their air defense is in the southern part of the country. That deployment made sense when the Persian Gulf was the main threat axis. Redeployment to a more Northwest posture  will make it more difficult for Israel and Israel will lose some planes. Iran can't stop Israel but it can raise the price. Iran is also undoubtedly trying to get more air defense capability. Right now (unfortunately for the world) it is a seller's market. War makes strange bedfellows. China might "help" if they see a clear diplomatic/military reason. Russia is way too busy with its own problems. Israel suffers from the serious effects this war has on its economy. As long as it looks like they are "winning" and may reach the goal of removing Iran as a major force against Israel, that may be fine. If it ever looks like they will not succeed, domestic politics can call a halt to the effort. The US may also call a halt by credible threaten to withdraw support from Israel. I don't see that happening "soon" but it isn't impossible if this war drags on.

Internally, while there is dislike of Netenyahu, all parties are in favor of preventing an Iranian nuclear program or at least are standing behind the flag. Internationally, Iran has made few friends and many enemies. Even countries that dislike Israel are likely happy to see the two have at it, which fits the fact that there has seemed to be little international outcry.

Mostly agree. Lots of the "power brokers" in the Middle East would like to see Iran come to grief. These states see a weakened Iran as creating a vacuum that said state can fill. However as things play out these states will want to see "stability" and their attitudes will change.