05-15-2025, 09:04 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/estonia-warns...13817.html
This "shadow fleet" has been a "problem" all along. The Russians don't want to put a Russian flag on them because these tankers then would become legitimate targets to be detained for sanction violations. That would put many countries, e.g. India in a tight spot. Receiving oil directly from Russia is unpopular in western circles but at least it is "legal" if the price cap is enforced. These "shadow" tankers are not flying Russian flags so they are (or at least can be) assumed to be transporting "legal" cargo. Since "free ships make free goods" these ships are notionally inviolate.
The "west" has been somewhat reluctant to stop these ships because it may create a direct conflict with Russia, despite the fact these vessels are not Russian flagged. It is a difficult problem, but IMO the US (and the "west") should make it clear to Russia that these ships will be stopped on the high seas and their cargo "inspected" to determine if it violates sanctions. If it does, the cargo will be considered contraband and these ships will be impounded. Russia cannot be allowed to have it both ways. If the ships are claiming the advantages of neutrality they must not be carrying "contraband", in this case Russia oil at a price greater than the allowed ceiling price. The problem for the "west" is that such an interpretation is possible only if the US and "the west" are parties to the war in Ukraine. Obviously we are already far over that line, but this would be a very public confirmation of that fact. Make Russia put a Russian flag on them. Then sales of oil at over the price cap will subject nations doing so to existing sanctions.
The question of applying secondary sanctions to countries buying Russian oil at any price, even below the cap, is a different question. Since IMO the US is nowhere near contemplating this action there is no point in speculating about its advisability. Eliminating the "grey market" bypass around existing sanctions is IMO a necessary step before even considering more "serious" sanctions.
This "shadow fleet" has been a "problem" all along. The Russians don't want to put a Russian flag on them because these tankers then would become legitimate targets to be detained for sanction violations. That would put many countries, e.g. India in a tight spot. Receiving oil directly from Russia is unpopular in western circles but at least it is "legal" if the price cap is enforced. These "shadow" tankers are not flying Russian flags so they are (or at least can be) assumed to be transporting "legal" cargo. Since "free ships make free goods" these ships are notionally inviolate.
The "west" has been somewhat reluctant to stop these ships because it may create a direct conflict with Russia, despite the fact these vessels are not Russian flagged. It is a difficult problem, but IMO the US (and the "west") should make it clear to Russia that these ships will be stopped on the high seas and their cargo "inspected" to determine if it violates sanctions. If it does, the cargo will be considered contraband and these ships will be impounded. Russia cannot be allowed to have it both ways. If the ships are claiming the advantages of neutrality they must not be carrying "contraband", in this case Russia oil at a price greater than the allowed ceiling price. The problem for the "west" is that such an interpretation is possible only if the US and "the west" are parties to the war in Ukraine. Obviously we are already far over that line, but this would be a very public confirmation of that fact. Make Russia put a Russian flag on them. Then sales of oil at over the price cap will subject nations doing so to existing sanctions.
The question of applying secondary sanctions to countries buying Russian oil at any price, even below the cap, is a different question. Since IMO the US is nowhere near contemplating this action there is no point in speculating about its advisability. Eliminating the "grey market" bypass around existing sanctions is IMO a necessary step before even considering more "serious" sanctions.