[Goose]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-...33777.html

Article in Russia economy and the war in Ukraine

Interesting article. IMO removing the "shadow fleet" from doing business is a task "the west" can and should execute. Taking this long to do the obvious certainly hasn't helped the attempt to drive Russia out of the war economically. Equally, given the increase in OPEC production the US should put pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil. For that matter, they could buy US oil, thereby improving the balance of payments issue they are undoubtedly already under pressure to "fix". The Russians can currently still sell their oil via re-export from other nations. The "shadow fleet" is generally flagged by countries that have no ability or desire to "protect" these ships. Re-export from China (and a few other countries) is another case entirely. The west needs to ensure that existing trade does not grow to replace the "shadow fleet".
 
Unfortunately the ability of "the west" to predict what effect sanctions will have on Russia's economy is demonstrably limited. We have, over the last three years, repeatedly seen forecasts that "Russia can't lasts beyond ...". These predictions have been uniformly wrong. It does however appear that on the military front the war in Ukraine is slowing down. It may be that it is just the reporting that is slowing down, but without doubt we hear almost nothing about a Russian "spring offensive". Again, that may be because Russia expects to get what it wants (and perhaps more) through negotiations and is therefore holding off on the "meat offensives". It also may be that Russia is not able to generate them as easily as before.
 
Ukraine is definitely "war weary". Russia probably is also, although how much is unknown. However, as of now there is no end in sight. That may change quickly if Russia decides to negotiate a settlement that Ukraine and the Europeans can stomach. I have no idea when/if that will happen. Putin may figure the Europeans will lose interest pretty soon and hold on for that outcome. Stronger economic sanctions may preclude that approach and are therefore useful, even if they are not "decisive".

[Goose]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-...33777.html

Article in Russia economy and the war in Ukraine

Interesting article. IMO removing the "shadow fleet" from doing business is a task "the west" can and should execute. Taking this long to do the obvious certainly hasn't helped the attempt to drive Russia out of the war economically. Equally, given the increase in OPEC production the US should put pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil. For that matter, they could buy US oil, thereby improving the balance of payments issue they are undoubtedly already under pressure to "fix". The Russians can currently still sell their oil via re-export from other nations. The "shadow fleet" is generally flagged by countries that have no ability or desire to "protect" these ships. Re-export from China (and a few other countries) is another case entirely. The west needs to ensure that existing trade does not grow to replace the "shadow fleet".
 
Unfortunately the ability of "the west" to predict what effect sanctions will have on Russia's economy is demonstrably limited. We have, over the last three years, repeatedly seen forecasts that "Russia can't lasts beyond ...". These predictions have been uniformly wrong. It does however appear that on the military front the war in Ukraine is slowing down. It may be that it is just the reporting that is slowing down, but without doubt we hear almost nothing about a Russian "spring offensive". Again, that may be because Russia expects to get what it wants (and perhaps more) through negotiations and is therefore holding off on the "meat offensives". It also may be that Russia is not able to generate them as easily as before.
 
Ukraine is definitely "war weary". Russia probably is also, although how much is unknown. However, as of now there is no end in sight. That may change quickly if Russia decides to negotiate a settlement that Ukraine and the Europeans can stomach. I have no idea when/if that will happen. Putin may figure the Europeans will lose interest pretty soon and hold on for that outcome. Stronger economic sanctions may preclude that approach and are therefore useful, even if they are not "decisive".