Axios reporting on Trump's reported "final offer" for US involvement in peace talks:
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-r...mea-donbas
What Russia gets
What Russia gets:
Thus far I have not seen any real signs that Putin is willing to accept any deal, so the first big question is if this is even in the cards on the Russian side. Politically, I'm not sure how well this would play in Ukraine, but to be frank given the circumstances an essential freezing of the front lines is probably in Ukraine's favor given the unlikelihood of regaining significant territory through a counter-offensive.
Of course, Ukraine understands any agreement with Russia is hardly worth the paper it is printed on, so the question becomes if Ukraine thinks the time spent in a cease fire is more beneficial for themselves or for Russia? I would be inclined to think that the time to refortify, reconstitute men and material etc, while beneficial to both sides, would favor the defender more on balance.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-r...mea-donbas
What Russia gets
What Russia gets:
- "De jure" U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.
- "De-facto recognition" of the Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
- A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.
- The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.
- Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
- "A robust security guarantee" involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S. participation.
- The return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied.
- Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.
- Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.
Thus far I have not seen any real signs that Putin is willing to accept any deal, so the first big question is if this is even in the cards on the Russian side. Politically, I'm not sure how well this would play in Ukraine, but to be frank given the circumstances an essential freezing of the front lines is probably in Ukraine's favor given the unlikelihood of regaining significant territory through a counter-offensive.
Of course, Ukraine understands any agreement with Russia is hardly worth the paper it is printed on, so the question becomes if Ukraine thinks the time spent in a cease fire is more beneficial for themselves or for Russia? I would be inclined to think that the time to refortify, reconstitute men and material etc, while beneficial to both sides, would favor the defender more on balance.