[gocard14]

1743259936[/url]']

1743257203[/url]']
As I read this, the US-Ukraine negotiations = No Deal.  Europe wields the upper hand.
[Euro News, NYTimes reports]

March 28: 
New draft of US minerals deal revives fears over Ukraine's EU accession
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/...-accession
By giving American companies preferential treatment in Ukraine, the proposed minerals deal runs the risk of contradicting the EU's competition and single market rules, which provide for equal and fair access.
The minerals deal that Kyiv and Washington are currently negotiating will be closely examined in Brussels to determine its compatibility with Ukraine's membership bid, the European Commission has said, as the latest version of the text revives fears it would derail the country's ambitions to join the bloc.  The accession process requires candidate nations to gradually align with EU legislation, including fundamental principles of fair competition and non-discrimination.
"The line has been conveyed such an agreement would need to be looked into from the perspective of the relations between Ukraine and the EU and, notably, in terms of the accession negotiations," Paula Pinho, the Commission's chief spokesperson, said on Friday during a press conference.

1) The bottom line is that Ukraine (Zelensky) values EU accession (distinct from NATO membership) above all else,
even if giving up territory in the East to Russia.  EU is promising more.  Even if faking it.  Geography matters. 

2) Zelensky says he does not consider PRIOR aid provided by USA as a "credit" of value. (!?)
This is a breakdown point, as I see it.  €114 billion estimate, but the amount varies. 

3) Ukraine rejects the 3-2 Board of the Fund "CONTROL" of Mineral Assets.  USA with 3 of 5 board votes = Non-starter. 

4) The EU sees the US deal as blocking EU accession by violating fair competition rules.  The EU wields the upper hand. Killing the deal.
Basically, the EU is vetoing the USA - UKR deal negotiations.  Ukraine wants EU accession more than anything else.

5) Ukraine is still pushing for Security Guarantees -- which is a non-starter for USA, not just Trump,
but US Congress will not approve troops for that ... as a "Back door Article 5".

The EU will offer faux Security Guarantees, just like their 2% commitments to NATO.  They cannot field armies and are out of ammo. 
They will massage it and fake it to make UKR feel good.  Zelensky sees EU Accession as the top political victory. 
But, EU is suffering indigestion over possible "Rules of Engagement" with Russia on sending troops into Ukraine. 
"Can the EU troops shoot at anything?"  

What is the role of USA?  Now, I think any USA role would need to flow via NATO, and torquing by EU. 

But, the biggest problem remains that Ukraine can not physically mount another year of war.  
"Standing up to Putin" sounds tough, but what does it means what exactly?  
Ukraine doesn't have another 50,000 troops to throw at the Donbas.  And it would not move the needle. 

Andy

-----

It always seemed to me that the proposal was nonsense. Why would we invest millions or billions in rare earth deposits next door to Putin and not in the continental USA.  We need to develop our local deposits and I was under the impression we had some fairly sizeable deposits now being developed.  If push comes to shove we do not want to be dependent on sources to easily shut down by potential advisaries.

It's a lot easier to have projects that are an environmental issue in other people's backyards. 

That said, there is clear strategic value in cultivating a domestic supply which may supercede this.

[gocard14]

1743259936[/url]']

1743257203[/url]']
As I read this, the US-Ukraine negotiations = No Deal.  Europe wields the upper hand.
[Euro News, NYTimes reports]

March 28: 
New draft of US minerals deal revives fears over Ukraine's EU accession
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/...-accession
By giving American companies preferential treatment in Ukraine, the proposed minerals deal runs the risk of contradicting the EU's competition and single market rules, which provide for equal and fair access.
The minerals deal that Kyiv and Washington are currently negotiating will be closely examined in Brussels to determine its compatibility with Ukraine's membership bid, the European Commission has said, as the latest version of the text revives fears it would derail the country's ambitions to join the bloc.  The accession process requires candidate nations to gradually align with EU legislation, including fundamental principles of fair competition and non-discrimination.
"The line has been conveyed such an agreement would need to be looked into from the perspective of the relations between Ukraine and the EU and, notably, in terms of the accession negotiations," Paula Pinho, the Commission's chief spokesperson, said on Friday during a press conference.

1) The bottom line is that Ukraine (Zelensky) values EU accession (distinct from NATO membership) above all else,
even if giving up territory in the East to Russia.  EU is promising more.  Even if faking it.  Geography matters. 

2) Zelensky says he does not consider PRIOR aid provided by USA as a "credit" of value. (!?)
This is a breakdown point, as I see it.  €114 billion estimate, but the amount varies. 

3) Ukraine rejects the 3-2 Board of the Fund "CONTROL" of Mineral Assets.  USA with 3 of 5 board votes = Non-starter. 

4) The EU sees the US deal as blocking EU accession by violating fair competition rules.  The EU wields the upper hand. Killing the deal.
Basically, the EU is vetoing the USA - UKR deal negotiations.  Ukraine wants EU accession more than anything else.

5) Ukraine is still pushing for Security Guarantees -- which is a non-starter for USA, not just Trump,
but US Congress will not approve troops for that ... as a "Back door Article 5".

The EU will offer faux Security Guarantees, just like their 2% commitments to NATO.  They cannot field armies and are out of ammo. 
They will massage it and fake it to make UKR feel good.  Zelensky sees EU Accession as the top political victory. 
But, EU is suffering indigestion over possible "Rules of Engagement" with Russia on sending troops into Ukraine. 
"Can the EU troops shoot at anything?"  

What is the role of USA?  Now, I think any USA role would need to flow via NATO, and torquing by EU. 

But, the biggest problem remains that Ukraine can not physically mount another year of war.  
"Standing up to Putin" sounds tough, but what does it means what exactly?  
Ukraine doesn't have another 50,000 troops to throw at the Donbas.  And it would not move the needle. 

Andy

-----

It always seemed to me that the proposal was nonsense. Why would we invest millions or billions in rare earth deposits next door to Putin and not in the continental USA.  We need to develop our local deposits and I was under the impression we had some fairly sizeable deposits now being developed.  If push comes to shove we do not want to be dependent on sources to easily shut down by potential advisaries.

It's a lot easier to have projects that are an environmental issue in other people's backyards. 

That said, there is clear strategic value in cultivating a domestic supply which may supercede this.