[Goose]

really sad . . . Russia seems to be developing a pattern for shooting down civilian airliners.  I remember KAL 107 quite well back in 1983.   THis plus the Malasian flight and maybe more that I don't remember form a scary trend.   Crossing Russia is pretty useful to get to a lot of places given the massive landmass.

Russia is known to have serious command and control problems in their air defense system. Their personnel lack training and are therefore prone to mistakes. Their equipment lacks IFF equipment compatible with the civilian IFF systems. They are a dangerous entity. They become a significantly more dangerous entity when they are involved in some kind of conflict, real or imaginary.

KAL 107 was the most "justifiable" of their shoot-downs. The aircraft had violated Russian airspace. It was not on an "expected" track nor was it in contact with any Russian ATC. Of course, the Russian air defense did not attempt to contact the aircraft nor did the Russian pilot that shot it down attempt to contact the plane on 121.5. That by itself is inexcusable. The pilot that shot it down knew it was a 747, not an RC-135. He said that didn't matter, as any plane can be converted to a collection aircraft. Since it was night, he couldn't see it was a KAL flight. He was ordered to kill it, so he did (with some difficulty). Russia was about to conduct a missile test, and their failure to intercept KAL 107 initially was a major "black eye". The brass was in CYA mode.

The destruction of MH17 is difficult to figure out. It was not shot down by "regular" Russian air defense forces. There was no reason to believe the civilian flight could have been confused with any "threat" to ground forces. It was way too high. It is a mystery, really.

If in fact Russia shot down J2-8243, which at the moment seems probable, it was undoubtedly a total mixup by the Russian air defenses. When the voice recorder data becomes available it is probable we will know when the flight was in contact with Russian ATC. If it was before the shootdown, which it should have been, Russia has no excuse. We know Russia subsequently denied them permission to land, so it isn't that Russian ATC was non-existent. If a Ukrainian air attack arrived unexpectedly Russia should have immediately vectored all civilian traffic away from the area. If that was not done, it is on Russia that this plane was lost. That said, I would strongly recommend against getting anywhere near Russian air space these days. They are nervous, under pressure and poorly trained. Mistakes will be made.

The US also has made mistakes. The USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988. The Vincennes had just had its helicopter shot at by Iranian vessels, so they were understandably a bit on edge. The IFF system of the Vincennes received a "short" mode 2 response from the aircraft that denied flight information normally present in civilian air traffic. This identified it as a probable military aircraft. The CIC subsequently (mistakenly) associated an intercept of an AUG-9 radar with the civilian aircraft. This convinced them it was indeed a "threat". The flight profile from a dual-use air base and the (erroneously described)descending flight toward Vincennes was consistent with an F-14 preparing to launch an anti-ship missile. The Vincennes and an accompanying destroyer both called on 243.0 and 121.5 MHz attempting to warn the aircraft away, but received no answer and the aircraft continued on course. They shot it down. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/17/acc...s-ukraine/ says a lot about it.

Why the aircraft ignored those calls will never be known. Mistakes were made on the Vincennes, but given the situation all parties should have been on high alert to avoid unintended consequences. Flying passenger aircraft over an area where vessels are shooting at each other is a recipe for disaster. Vincennes tried to get the aircraft to identify itself and change course. Neither happened.

Iran also recently (2020) shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. This erroneous shootdown was caused by very poor training of the Iranian personnel involved and the lack (once again) of civilian IFF capability on Russian missile systems. There was also no facility to "hand off" civilian arrivals and departures to the military. The Ukrainian aircraft was still transponding with ATC when hit by the missiles. Inexcusable. Equally inexcusable was not halting civilian flights when Iran had just struck US bases with cruise missiles and was expecting a response. The air defense network was on very high alert. The decision time for SHORD is very minimal. Mistakes can easily be made, even by well-trained crews, let alone guys who have never actually fired their missiles before. Civilian aircraft have no business in this environment.

[Goose]

really sad . . . Russia seems to be developing a pattern for shooting down civilian airliners.  I remember KAL 107 quite well back in 1983.   THis plus the Malasian flight and maybe more that I don't remember form a scary trend.   Crossing Russia is pretty useful to get to a lot of places given the massive landmass.

Russia is known to have serious command and control problems in their air defense system. Their personnel lack training and are therefore prone to mistakes. Their equipment lacks IFF equipment compatible with the civilian IFF systems. They are a dangerous entity. They become a significantly more dangerous entity when they are involved in some kind of conflict, real or imaginary.

KAL 107 was the most "justifiable" of their shoot-downs. The aircraft had violated Russian airspace. It was not on an "expected" track nor was it in contact with any Russian ATC. Of course, the Russian air defense did not attempt to contact the aircraft nor did the Russian pilot that shot it down attempt to contact the plane on 121.5. That by itself is inexcusable. The pilot that shot it down knew it was a 747, not an RC-135. He said that didn't matter, as any plane can be converted to a collection aircraft. Since it was night, he couldn't see it was a KAL flight. He was ordered to kill it, so he did (with some difficulty). Russia was about to conduct a missile test, and their failure to intercept KAL 107 initially was a major "black eye". The brass was in CYA mode.

The destruction of MH17 is difficult to figure out. It was not shot down by "regular" Russian air defense forces. There was no reason to believe the civilian flight could have been confused with any "threat" to ground forces. It was way too high. It is a mystery, really.

If in fact Russia shot down J2-8243, which at the moment seems probable, it was undoubtedly a total mixup by the Russian air defenses. When the voice recorder data becomes available it is probable we will know when the flight was in contact with Russian ATC. If it was before the shootdown, which it should have been, Russia has no excuse. We know Russia subsequently denied them permission to land, so it isn't that Russian ATC was non-existent. If a Ukrainian air attack arrived unexpectedly Russia should have immediately vectored all civilian traffic away from the area. If that was not done, it is on Russia that this plane was lost. That said, I would strongly recommend against getting anywhere near Russian air space these days. They are nervous, under pressure and poorly trained. Mistakes will be made.

The US also has made mistakes. The USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988. The Vincennes had just had its helicopter shot at by Iranian vessels, so they were understandably a bit on edge. The IFF system of the Vincennes received a "short" mode 2 response from the aircraft that denied flight information normally present in civilian air traffic. This identified it as a probable military aircraft. The CIC subsequently (mistakenly) associated an intercept of an AUG-9 radar with the civilian aircraft. This convinced them it was indeed a "threat". The flight profile from a dual-use air base and the (erroneously described)descending flight toward Vincennes was consistent with an F-14 preparing to launch an anti-ship missile. The Vincennes and an accompanying destroyer both called on 243.0 and 121.5 MHz attempting to warn the aircraft away, but received no answer and the aircraft continued on course. They shot it down. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/17/acc...s-ukraine/ says a lot about it.

Why the aircraft ignored those calls will never be known. Mistakes were made on the Vincennes, but given the situation all parties should have been on high alert to avoid unintended consequences. Flying passenger aircraft over an area where vessels are shooting at each other is a recipe for disaster. Vincennes tried to get the aircraft to identify itself and change course. Neither happened.

Iran also recently (2020) shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. This erroneous shootdown was caused by very poor training of the Iranian personnel involved and the lack (once again) of civilian IFF capability on Russian missile systems. There was also no facility to "hand off" civilian arrivals and departures to the military. The Ukrainian aircraft was still transponding with ATC when hit by the missiles. Inexcusable. Equally inexcusable was not halting civilian flights when Iran had just struck US bases with cruise missiles and was expecting a response. The air defense network was on very high alert. The decision time for SHORD is very minimal. Mistakes can easily be made, even by well-trained crews, let alone guys who have never actually fired their missiles before. Civilian aircraft have no business in this environment.