[Mick]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

[Mick]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph is extrapolating Russia's flight from Syria along with the three-year-old Ukrainian war into a situation that is particularly dangerous for Putin, and that his demise (political or actual) may be much closer than we realize. Russia is in an inflationary spiral, interest rates are at 21% and climbing. The Soviet military-industrial complex is cannibalizing the rest of the economy.

By the numbers/by the news. Doesn't look good for Putin:

- 5mm job openings
- 800k well educated Russians have fled for greener pastures
- 600k IT worker shortage
- 400k open defense industry positions
- Oil export earnings have fallen in half
- Facing an oil price war with Saudi Arabia over Asian buyers. $65 barrel now, will be $45 to $50 in a year. If the Saudis flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share, it could fall below $40/barrel.
- Gold reserves have dropped in half over the last 15 months.
- Substantial technology chip shortage. Russian systems are configured for Western semiconductors, and they haven't been able to replace TI chips. 
- Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards and are pulling back from Russian E-Commerce sites.
- Three weeks ago, the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and 50+ other Russian banks.

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think