[GK3]

There’s a lesson for Putin in this: things look very stable—until they don’t.  Like, two weeks ago, did anyone have “the Assad regime falls” on their bingo card?  Even as the rebels kept marching south, I figured that at some point, the regime would stiffen and stop them.

Agree regarding Putin. Things can go south very quickly. Same applies to the Ukrainian military. It seems very probable at this point that Assad is toast, but sometimes things turn around quickly. What happens if some turncoat shoots Hassan Abdul-Ghani?

It also makes me wonder what would have happened if Progozin had gone all the way to Moscow.  Most likely the Russian army stops him, but I could see a scenario where everyone looks for someone else to stop him and he gets all the way to the Kremlin and it’s Putin shoes plane explodes in mid-air.

BC

I always wondered why Progozin chickened out. It looked very probable nobody was going to stop him until he got to Moscow. At that point, it would be a question of persuading his opponents that it was better for Russia if Putin fell. IMO Progozin really didn't want to take over Russia. He just wanted to be restored as Putin's favorite. "Winning" wouldn't do that. Progozin also knew he didn't have the political chops to pull off a full scale rebellion. Thus he bailed.

Unfortunately he bailed out to his death. I do not think Putin has any inclination to "share" leadership with anyone else.  Progozin should have simply left town to somwhere safe, or carried out the move to Moscow which might have ended the Putin regeime.

[GK3]

There’s a lesson for Putin in this: things look very stable—until they don’t.  Like, two weeks ago, did anyone have “the Assad regime falls” on their bingo card?  Even as the rebels kept marching south, I figured that at some point, the regime would stiffen and stop them.

Agree regarding Putin. Things can go south very quickly. Same applies to the Ukrainian military. It seems very probable at this point that Assad is toast, but sometimes things turn around quickly. What happens if some turncoat shoots Hassan Abdul-Ghani?

It also makes me wonder what would have happened if Progozin had gone all the way to Moscow.  Most likely the Russian army stops him, but I could see a scenario where everyone looks for someone else to stop him and he gets all the way to the Kremlin and it’s Putin shoes plane explodes in mid-air.

BC

I always wondered why Progozin chickened out. It looked very probable nobody was going to stop him until he got to Moscow. At that point, it would be a question of persuading his opponents that it was better for Russia if Putin fell. IMO Progozin really didn't want to take over Russia. He just wanted to be restored as Putin's favorite. "Winning" wouldn't do that. Progozin also knew he didn't have the political chops to pull off a full scale rebellion. Thus he bailed.

Unfortunately he bailed out to his death. I do not think Putin has any inclination to "share" leadership with anyone else.  Progozin should have simply left town to somwhere safe, or carried out the move to Moscow which might have ended the Putin regeime.