[Goose]

Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad.

Whatever they're saying, this is what they're doing.

Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.

.......


“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst who advises officials on regional strategy, said in a telephone interview.

“The bottom line,” he added, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world...ation.html

It looks like both Russia and Iran are blaming their inability/unwillingness to support Assad on the Syrian military's unwillingness to fight. They are in effect saying "Nothing we can do to help them if they won't help themselves.". It is obviously spin, not substance. From the article:

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had traveled to Damascus this week, meeting with Mr. al-Assad and pledging Iran’s full support.
But in Baghdad on Friday, he appeared to make a more ambiguous statement. “We are not fortune tellers,” he said in an interview on Iraqi television. “Whatever is God’s will shall happen, but the resistance will fulfill its duty".

They hope their "base" will believe they did all they could, but the Syrians wouldn't fight. Despite Iran doing its duty, God willed an unfavorable outcome. Hard to believe anybody would buy that, but I guess it is worth a try :-).

The more I hear the more concerned I am that some kind of agreement between HTS and Russia/Iran exists. It is hard to believe both Russia and Iran would do so little to help Assad unless they don't fear the results of Assad's defeat. Russia has enough air power in Syria that they can pretty much stop the rebels offensive towards Damascus for a week at least. They can force the rebels to move in small groups, not just drive down the highway. They aren't doing it. Putin isn't a "God's Will" type of guy. Makes me worry about a "subplot" in this rebellion.

[Goose]

Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad.

Whatever they're saying, this is what they're doing.

Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.

.......


“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst who advises officials on regional strategy, said in a telephone interview.

“The bottom line,” he added, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world...ation.html

It looks like both Russia and Iran are blaming their inability/unwillingness to support Assad on the Syrian military's unwillingness to fight. They are in effect saying "Nothing we can do to help them if they won't help themselves.". It is obviously spin, not substance. From the article:

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had traveled to Damascus this week, meeting with Mr. al-Assad and pledging Iran’s full support.
But in Baghdad on Friday, he appeared to make a more ambiguous statement. “We are not fortune tellers,” he said in an interview on Iraqi television. “Whatever is God’s will shall happen, but the resistance will fulfill its duty".

They hope their "base" will believe they did all they could, but the Syrians wouldn't fight. Despite Iran doing its duty, God willed an unfavorable outcome. Hard to believe anybody would buy that, but I guess it is worth a try :-).

The more I hear the more concerned I am that some kind of agreement between HTS and Russia/Iran exists. It is hard to believe both Russia and Iran would do so little to help Assad unless they don't fear the results of Assad's defeat. Russia has enough air power in Syria that they can pretty much stop the rebels offensive towards Damascus for a week at least. They can force the rebels to move in small groups, not just drive down the highway. They aren't doing it. Putin isn't a "God's Will" type of guy. Makes me worry about a "subplot" in this rebellion.